The daily SBR home run predictions cashed Aaron Judge +250 last night and Sean Tomlinson takes the wheel with his best home run bets for Thursday, July 24th:
Cal Raleigh To hit a home run (+230 via FanDuel)
Brent Rooker To hit a home run (+425 via bet365)
Taylor Ward To hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel)
Brendan Donovan To hit a home run (+675 via BetMGM)
Parlay odds: +48288 via FanDuel ($10 to win $4,828.84)
Best Bet: Cal Raleigh (Mariners) to hit a home run (+230 FanDuel)
"You better believe we're pouncing if the price for Raleigh is even remotely appealing, or if there's an outlier from one of our best MLB betting sites.
The latter is very much the case as we tab the Home Run derby winner to lead our best home run bets today. FanDuel is offering +230, which leads to an implied probability of 30.3%. Meanwhile, Caesars is down at +190, with DraftKings even further at +185, and those prices are implying a probability around 35.09%.
The shorter prices are more in line with a masher who leads MLB while averaging a home run every 9.4 plate appearances, which is far ahead of Judge in second at 10.1.
Part of the reason for FanDuel's outlier price could be Raleigh's downturn in July, a month in which he's posting a .739 OPS compared to a 1.088 in June. But there will be valleys for even the greatest mashers, and the contact Raleigh has been making is often of the loud variety that logs a whole lot of mileage. He's still clubbed six homers so far throughout an abbreviated month due to the All-Star break, including one during his last game.
Now he gets to face Yusei Kikuchi, who's putting together a quality season with a 3.13 ERA. But Raleigh has been excelling against lefties while producing a 1.175 OPS (he's at .909 against righties). And Kikuchi is susceptible to the long ball even when at his best, which is reflected in his 91.3 mph average exit velocity allowed that sits in the bottom 6% of MLB, according to Baseball Savant."
Cal Raleigh To hit a home run (+230 via FanDuel)
Brent Rooker To hit a home run (+425 via bet365)
Taylor Ward To hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel)
Brendan Donovan To hit a home run (+675 via BetMGM)
Parlay odds: +48288 via FanDuel ($10 to win $4,828.84)
Best Bet: Cal Raleigh (Mariners) to hit a home run (+230 FanDuel)
"You better believe we're pouncing if the price for Raleigh is even remotely appealing, or if there's an outlier from one of our best MLB betting sites.
The latter is very much the case as we tab the Home Run derby winner to lead our best home run bets today. FanDuel is offering +230, which leads to an implied probability of 30.3%. Meanwhile, Caesars is down at +190, with DraftKings even further at +185, and those prices are implying a probability around 35.09%.
The shorter prices are more in line with a masher who leads MLB while averaging a home run every 9.4 plate appearances, which is far ahead of Judge in second at 10.1.
Part of the reason for FanDuel's outlier price could be Raleigh's downturn in July, a month in which he's posting a .739 OPS compared to a 1.088 in June. But there will be valleys for even the greatest mashers, and the contact Raleigh has been making is often of the loud variety that logs a whole lot of mileage. He's still clubbed six homers so far throughout an abbreviated month due to the All-Star break, including one during his last game.
Now he gets to face Yusei Kikuchi, who's putting together a quality season with a 3.13 ERA. But Raleigh has been excelling against lefties while producing a 1.175 OPS (he's at .909 against righties). And Kikuchi is susceptible to the long ball even when at his best, which is reflected in his 91.3 mph average exit velocity allowed that sits in the bottom 6% of MLB, according to Baseball Savant."
