Home Run Predictions for Dinger Tuesday July 22

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 3922

    #1
    Home Run Predictions for Dinger Tuesday July 22
    It's Dinger Tuesday and that means SBR's Andrew Brennan is back with his best home run predictions for July 22nd:

    Spencer Torkelson to hit a home run (+540 via FanDuel)
    Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+260 via BetMGM
    Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+300 via FanDuel)
    Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+186 via FanDuel)

    Parlay odds: +20029 via FanDuel ($10 to win $2,002.90)

    Best Bet: Aaron Judge (Yankees) to hit a home run (+260 BetMGM)

    "It's not often we can get real value on Judge to go yard. Sure, you could argue he's worth betting on ahead of any game since the slugger very regularly is given the best home run projection. However, not only is that the case today, but we're also getting great odds on him to hit a homer.

    The main reason we're getting such a good price is almost certainly because of how the Blue Jays approach Judge. They're one of the only teams that will refuse to pitch to him regularly, and when he does see strikes, Judge is often in for a very tough at-bat.

    So, why do I like this bet so much? Well, because the best sports betting sites are overcorrecting here - or at least some are right now. You see FanDuel's +196 price included in our parlay above, while DraftKings is sitting at +215. You can still bet those numbers, but you won't really get much value.

    Meanwhile, these odds and the identical +260 price at bet365 are unlike anything we generally see for a Judge homer. I know the Blue Jays give Judge a tough time, but +260 is far too long.​"​
  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65487

    #2
    Projections provided by RotoWire
    7/22

    I have never seen a .50 before in all the years I've been referencing RotoWire, FanGraphs, and b-r.com.
    I'll shop around and get the best price on the Judge prop before pulling the trigger.

    Analytics geeks like myself get excited when they see numbers like .50
    Click image for larger version

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    • SBR Andy
      Administrator
      • 02-09-22
      • 3922

      #3
      Originally posted by stevenash
      Projections provided by RotoWire
      7/22

      I have never seen a .50 before in all the years I've been referencing RotoWire, FanGraphs, and b-r.com.
      I'll shop around and get the best price on the Judge prop before pulling the trigger.

      Analytics geeks like myself get excited when they see numbers like .50
      Click image for larger version  Name:	image.png Views:	24 Size:	36.4 KB ID:	29888191
      All the stars are aligning. Can move Judge from +210 to +315 with the FanDuel 50% Dinger boost

      Click image for larger version

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      • stevenash
        Moderator
        • 01-17-11
        • 65487

        #4
        Stanton is down to +230.

        I'm positive this is not an original thought, but I'm going to play several DFS lineups tonight with a Stanton/Judge/Dominguez stack.

        Doesn't mean the Yankees will tee off on a clearly past his prime Scherzer, as games are played on the field and not paper, but on paper the Yanks kill RHP like this.

        The over 9.5 is enticing; however, I learned years ago the hard way that 9.5 baseball totals are tricky.
        Comment
        • SBR Andy
          Administrator
          • 02-09-22
          • 3922

          #5
          Most bet home run props (tickets) at BetMGM for Tuesday:
          1. Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Home runs +360
          2. Ben Rice Over 0.5 Home runs +525
          3. Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Home runs +225
          4. Riley Greene Over 0.5 Home runs +500
          Comment
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