SBR's Dustin Saracini shares his best No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for Monday, July 21st (50-34, +7.79 YTD):
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-180 at FanDuel)
Jack Flaherty (4.65 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (2.01 ERA)
NRFI record: Tigers (54-46) vs. Pirates (59-41)
"We talked about riding our horses to the bank. Well, how about Cy Young odds contender Paul Skenes? The electric right-hander hasn't allowed more than two runs across his last three starts (15 innings), which doesn't include his three-up, three-down All-Star Game appearance. The Tigers own just a .190 xBA in this matchup, with their top three hitters just 2-for-11 lifetime against him. That'll play as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Flaherty is another story. He's having the epitome of a roller-coaster season, but we're tailing him in a good spot here. The Pirates are one of the worst offenses in baseball (they just got swept by the White Sox) and haven't scored a run in the first frame in their last 14 games. I'm trusting Flaherty to get us three simple outs today."
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners (-155 at DraftKings)
Brandon Woodruff (2.61 ERA) vs. George Kirby (4.50 ERA)
NRFI record: Brewers (57-42) vs. Mariners (49-50)
"Welcome back, Woody. For the first time this year, we're firing you up as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Woodruff has been great since returning from injury, firing 10 1/3 innings of three-run baseball. He's coming off a 4 1/3-inning, 10-strikeout performance against the Nats, too. The right-hander has been a huge boost to the Brewers' rotation, and there's no doubt in my mind he'll continue his lights-out ways against the Mariners tonight.
Kirby will get the job done for us on the other side. He's going up against one of the best NRFI teams in baseball, and an offense that hasn't scored in the first inning in eight straight games.
I'd price this play closer to -170 betting odds than the -155 we're getting at DraftKings. Let's ride with the value we're getting here."
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-180 at FanDuel)
Jack Flaherty (4.65 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (2.01 ERA)
NRFI record: Tigers (54-46) vs. Pirates (59-41)
"We talked about riding our horses to the bank. Well, how about Cy Young odds contender Paul Skenes? The electric right-hander hasn't allowed more than two runs across his last three starts (15 innings), which doesn't include his three-up, three-down All-Star Game appearance. The Tigers own just a .190 xBA in this matchup, with their top three hitters just 2-for-11 lifetime against him. That'll play as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Flaherty is another story. He's having the epitome of a roller-coaster season, but we're tailing him in a good spot here. The Pirates are one of the worst offenses in baseball (they just got swept by the White Sox) and haven't scored a run in the first frame in their last 14 games. I'm trusting Flaherty to get us three simple outs today."
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners (-155 at DraftKings)
Brandon Woodruff (2.61 ERA) vs. George Kirby (4.50 ERA)
NRFI record: Brewers (57-42) vs. Mariners (49-50)
"Welcome back, Woody. For the first time this year, we're firing you up as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Woodruff has been great since returning from injury, firing 10 1/3 innings of three-run baseball. He's coming off a 4 1/3-inning, 10-strikeout performance against the Nats, too. The right-hander has been a huge boost to the Brewers' rotation, and there's no doubt in my mind he'll continue his lights-out ways against the Mariners tonight.
Kirby will get the job done for us on the other side. He's going up against one of the best NRFI teams in baseball, and an offense that hasn't scored in the first inning in eight straight games.
I'd price this play closer to -170 betting odds than the -155 we're getting at DraftKings. Let's ride with the value we're getting here."