SBR's Andrew Brennan shares his best No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for Tuesday, July 1st:
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-145 via BetMGM)
Andre Pallante (4.43 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (2.12 ERA)
NRFI record: Cardinals (41-45) vs. Pirates (49-37)
"We backed Skenes - plus the Pirates' anemic offense - in his last start against the Brewers and cashed our NRFI bet. So we're going back to the well.
Skenes owns the fourth-lowest ERA among qualified starting pitchers this season, and as you can see by the Pirates' sparkling NRFI record, they aren't exactly starting games with fireworks even when he's not pitching.
Sure, you may be slightly scared off by the fact that Pallante isn't especially good, but we're looking at somewhat of an unstoppable force vs. immovable object here. Except it's a fairly stoppable force (Pallante) vs. an extraordinarily movable object (the Pirates' lineup, which is one of the five worst offenses in baseball)."
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets (-125 via DraftKings)
Freddy Peralta (2.90 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (2.97 ERA)
NRFI record: Brewers (46-38) vs. Mets (51-34)
"This is both an excellent pitching matchup in a vacuum and a showdown between two teams with great NRFI records. And somehow, we're getting -125 odds. Don't complain, just bet.
Neither the Mets nor the Brewers are particularly bad offensively - New York owns the seventh-best wRC+ while Milwaukee is right around the middle of the league - but they both seem to be slow starters. That should be especially true with Peralta and Holmes taking the mound. They're in a group with just 21 other qualified starters who own an ERA below 3.00 this season."
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-145 via BetMGM)
Andre Pallante (4.43 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (2.12 ERA)
NRFI record: Cardinals (41-45) vs. Pirates (49-37)
"We backed Skenes - plus the Pirates' anemic offense - in his last start against the Brewers and cashed our NRFI bet. So we're going back to the well.
Skenes owns the fourth-lowest ERA among qualified starting pitchers this season, and as you can see by the Pirates' sparkling NRFI record, they aren't exactly starting games with fireworks even when he's not pitching.
Sure, you may be slightly scared off by the fact that Pallante isn't especially good, but we're looking at somewhat of an unstoppable force vs. immovable object here. Except it's a fairly stoppable force (Pallante) vs. an extraordinarily movable object (the Pirates' lineup, which is one of the five worst offenses in baseball)."
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets (-125 via DraftKings)
Freddy Peralta (2.90 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (2.97 ERA)
NRFI record: Brewers (46-38) vs. Mets (51-34)
"This is both an excellent pitching matchup in a vacuum and a showdown between two teams with great NRFI records. And somehow, we're getting -125 odds. Don't complain, just bet.
Neither the Mets nor the Brewers are particularly bad offensively - New York owns the seventh-best wRC+ while Milwaukee is right around the middle of the league - but they both seem to be slow starters. That should be especially true with Peralta and Holmes taking the mound. They're in a group with just 21 other qualified starters who own an ERA below 3.00 this season."