Home Run Predictions June 27

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 3673

    #1
    Home Run Predictions June 27
    The SBR home run predictions cashed Rafael Devers (+420) last night and Andrew Brennan is back with his best home run bets for Friday, June 27th:

    NYY Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+210 via ESPN BET)
    MIN Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+325 via bet365)
    LAD Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+320 via bet365)
    CHC Seiya Suzuki to hit a home run (+450 via DraftKings)

    Parlay odds: +24029 via bet365 ($10 to win $2,402.90)

    Best bet: Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) to hit a home run

    "Following a bit of a cold spell, Ohtani used Coors Field for his own personal home run derby this week, as he so often does. Now, Ohtani and the Dodgers head to Kauffman Stadium, where the slugger will attempt to take down one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in baseball.

    Indeed, Kauffman is a pitcher's paradise, especially against left-handed hitters. However, Ohtani is no normal hitter.

    Somehow, despite how prolific he's already been to this point in his career, Ohtani is managing a new personal-best hard-hit rate this season, and his average exit velocity is only a hair below last year's, when he crushed 54 homers.

    Ohtani and Co. take on Noah Cameron tonight. Cameron has been solid this year, but a combination of plenty of hard contact and fly balls doesn't exactly inspire confidence. The left-hander is due for regression, and it'll come tonight against the GOAT.​"​
  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 3673

    #2
    Most bet home run props at DraftKings for Friday:

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    • stevenash
      Moderator
      • 01-17-11
      • 65380

      #3
      Projections provided by RotoWire.

      A. Judge has better than a 0.4 chance to park one tonight.
      It's uncommon to see a number greater than 0.4

      Player Name Pos Team Opp HR
      Aaron Judge OF NYY vs ATH 0.41
      Mike Trout OF LAA vs WSH 0.35
      Rhys Hoskins 1B MIL vs COL 0.32
      Jo Adell OF LAA vs WSH 0.32
      Cal Raleigh C SEA @TEX 0.31
      Rafael Devers 3B SF @CWS 0.3
      Pavin Smith OF ARI vs MIA 0.28
      Kyle Schwarber DH PHI @ATL 0.28
      Ketel Marte 2B ARI vs MIA 0.28
      Shohei Ohtani DH LAD @KC 0.27
      Logan O'Hoppe C LAA vs WSH 0.26
      Eugenio Suarez 3B ARI vs MIA 0.26
      Byron Buxton OF MIN @DET 0.26
      Nick Kurtz 1B ATH @NYY 0.26
      Giancarlo Stanton DH NYY vs ATH 0.26
      Josh Naylor 1B ARI vs MIA 0.25
      Jazz Chisholm 3B NYY vs ATH 0.25
      Mike Yastrzemski OF SF @CWS 0.25
      Kerry Carpenter OF DET vs MIN 0.25
      Comment
      • SBR Andy
        Administrator
        • 02-09-22
        • 3673

        #4
        Originally posted by stevenash
        Projections provided by RotoWire.

        A. Judge has better than a 0.4 chance to park one tonight.
        It's uncommon to see a number greater than 0.4

        Player Name Pos Team Opp HR
        Aaron Judge OF NYY vs ATH 0.41
        Mike Trout OF LAA vs WSH 0.35
        Rhys Hoskins 1B MIL vs COL 0.32
        Jo Adell OF LAA vs WSH 0.32
        Cal Raleigh C SEA @TEX 0.31
        Rafael Devers 3B SF @CWS 0.3
        Pavin Smith OF ARI vs MIA 0.28
        Kyle Schwarber DH PHI @ATL 0.28
        Ketel Marte 2B ARI vs MIA 0.28
        Shohei Ohtani DH LAD @KC 0.27
        Logan O'Hoppe C LAA vs WSH 0.26
        Eugenio Suarez 3B ARI vs MIA 0.26
        Byron Buxton OF MIN @DET 0.26
        Nick Kurtz 1B ATH @NYY 0.26
        Giancarlo Stanton DH NYY vs ATH 0.26
        Josh Naylor 1B ARI vs MIA 0.25
        Jazz Chisholm 3B NYY vs ATH 0.25
        Mike Yastrzemski OF SF @CWS 0.25
        Kerry Carpenter OF DET vs MIN 0.25
        Thanks for sharing. 41% probability = +144 implied odds. Definite value on Judge in the +200 range based on that projection.
        Comment
        • SBR Andy
          Administrator
          • 02-09-22
          • 3673

          #5
          Most bet home run props (tickets) at BetMGM:
          1. Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Home runs +310
          2. Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Home runs +195
          3. Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 Home runs +600
          4. Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Home runs +375
          5. Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 Home runs +360
          Comment
          • SBR Andy
            Administrator
            • 02-09-22
            • 3673

            #6
            I'll bite and use the BetMGM HR boost on Judge to go deep.

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            • SBR Andy
              Administrator
              • 02-09-22
              • 3673

              #7
              Also played Addison Barger using a 50% FanDuel boost for Jays/Red Sox:

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