3 Saturday plays

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  • rjt721
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-06-07
    • 7929

    #1
    3 Saturday plays
    3* Red Sox -113: (Big play for me) Tim Wakefield closes at -153 and Jon Lester's only -113 against the team with the worst record in the league? I know Shields has been very good for much of the year, but the fact is, for whatever reason, he's not the same pitcher right now. He's given up 5 runs or more in four is his last eight starts. Shields' ERA during that span: 6.89. He'll be under a lot of pressure to pitch deep in the game with the bullpen situation in Tampa, and given the way Boston's offense is performing lately, particularly Manny, who's swinging the bat better than he has all year, that's a lot to ask. With the easy win on Friday night, the Sox were able to rest both Papelbon and Okajima, and both will be available Saturday. Lester was sharp in his first outing against a very good Cleveland lineup, and with all the media hype and interest that came with his first start in over a year now behind him, he should be more relaxed tomorrow. Lester will be a front of the rotation pitcher in the very near future.

    2* Giants -114: Matt Cain's the best 3-12 pitcher in a long time. He's gotten no run support all year, but facing Dontrelle Willis may give SF's offense the best chance in a while to offer Cain some run support. Willis hasn't shown any sign of improving upon his miserable season and he's struggled mightily in four career starts at AT&T (1-2, 9.00 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, .329 BAA).

    1* Tigers/Angels U 10 -115: Two very good young lefties. Saunders has been consistent all year, and while Miller really struggled with his control in his last start, when he's throwing strikes he's about as filthy as any pitcher in the AL.

    Leans but no play at the moment: Mariners -115, Nats in both games.

    Good luck everyone.
  • MonkeyF0cker
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 06-12-07
    • 12144

    #2
    I'm liking the BOS pick. I'll probably ride with you on that one. I hate laying wood on the Giants though. That game I'll probably pass on...
    Comment
    • cohbull
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 04-28-07
      • 536

      #3
      Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker
      I hate laying wood on the Giants though. That game I'll probably pass on...
      yeah, especially after the giants scored a month's worth of runs tonight.
      Comment
      • The HG
        SBR MVP
        • 11-01-06
        • 3566

        #4
        The Boston lines aren't strange at all. Wakefield is a completely different pitcher indoors, and Shields, needless to say, is a far far more proven starter than Hammel. I'm not sure what I think about this one yet, but Lester has had control problems in his career, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again in this one. If it does, he will have a short and bad outing. Shields is having troubles no doubt, but he is still very capable of having a quality start. If anything I'm leaning towards TB for now.

        I do like the SF pick though. Does -114 count as wood? If it does it's a thin board. Willis' struggles, as compared with Shields', are more real IMO.

        The under pick, I see where you're coming from, but that is still risky. Detroit has that lineup and that pen, and Saunders was very up and down last year, he might be again this year. Him in the day against Detroit is a little scary. I feel very iffy about this under at best.
        Comment
        • area51steve
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 06-01-07
          • 725

          #5
          I'll be taking Boston also. Should be easy money.
          Comment
          • MonkeyF0cker
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 06-12-07
            • 12144

            #6
            Originally posted by Ganchrow HG
            The Boston lines aren't strange at all. Wakefield is a completely different pitcher indoors, and Shields, needless to say, is a far far more proven starter than Hammel. I'm not sure what I think about this one yet, but Lester has had control problems in his career, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again in this one. If it does, he will have a short and bad outing. Shields is having troubles no doubt, but he is still very capable of having a quality start. If anything I'm leaning towards TB for now.

            I do like the SF pick though. Does -114 count as wood? If it does it's a thin board. Willis' struggles, as compared with Shields', are more real IMO.

            The under pick, I see where you're coming from, but that is still risky. Detroit has that lineup and that pen, and Saunders was very up and down last year, he might be again this year. Him in the day against Detroit is a little scary. I feel very iffy about this under at best.
            Well it's about as much wood as you're going to see for SF this year. Sure Willis may be struggling, but so is Cain. They both have almost identical numbers. To me, that's a wash. Florida is the better hitting team though. And they match up a bit better vs. a right-hander than SF does against a lefty. If anything, I'd actually lean toward the Marlins. But it's a pass for me...
            Comment
            • Rusted Trombone
              SBR Rookie
              • 06-18-07
              • 24

              #7
              With you on BoSox .... Only worried about who they bring in for the 7th if Lester struggles after 6 considering Manny Delcarmen pitched 2 innings last night and kyle snyder pitched a full inning as well. Javier Lopez hasn't been so hot against some of the TB line up and Tavarez pitched a lot the night before. Shouldn't be much of a prob though.

              Good luck to you.
              Comment
              • MonkeyF0cker
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 06-12-07
                • 12144

                #8
                As for the BOS game, I'm gonna take my chances with Lester. It's the guy who's struggling that's the bigger question mark. However, Shields' career numbers (2 games in 2006) against BOS, regardless of his recent troubles are:

                10 1/3 IP 0-1 6.10 ERA 1.355 WHIP

                Lester looked solid his last outing against a pretty decent hitting team in the Indians. Even if he does give up a few runs early, BOS has a huge pen advantage. And I just can't see Shields throwing a CG against this lineup.
                Comment
                • rjt721
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-06-07
                  • 7929

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Ganchrow HG
                  The Boston lines aren't strange at all. Wakefield is a completely different pitcher indoors, and Shields, needless to say, is a far far more proven starter than Hammel. I'm not sure what I think about this one yet, but Lester has had control problems in his career, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again in this one. If it does, he will have a short and bad outing. Shields is having troubles no doubt, but he is still very capable of having a quality start. If anything I'm leaning towards TB for now.
                  Ganch, I'm not saying Hammel is in Shields' class, but I believe Lester is a significantly better pitcher than Wake right now. He has had some control issues in his brief career (like all young lefties), but he has cut down on his walks a bit in the minors and the Rays' lineup certainly isn't the most patient. Basically, I think Lester is on the verge of becoming a star, while Shields, who's already thrown 22 more innings than his previous high in the majors, is clearly wearing down. Even if the game's close in the late innings, with a rested Papelbon and Okajima, compared with TB's brutal pen, Boston's edge is considerable.

                  For what it's worth Ganch, Bonderman's going huge on the BoSox tomorrow. Just thought you'd like to know.

                  Originally posted by Rusted Trombone
                  With you on BoSox .... Only worried about who they bring in for the 7th if Lester struggles after 6 considering Manny Delcarmen pitched 2 innings last night and kyle snyder pitched a full inning as well. Javier Lopez hasn't been so hot against some of the TB line up and Tavarez pitched a lot the night before.
                  If Lester goes six and the game's still tight, I think there's a good chance Okajima pitches the 7th and 8th.

                  Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker
                  Sure Willis may be struggling, but so is Cain. They both have almost identical numbers.
                  Cain's ERA is more than a full run lower than Dontrelle's (4.02/5.15), while his WHIP and BAA are also substantially better (1.41, .245/1.65, .299). Far from identical numbers.
                  Comment
                  • Terpman92
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-16-06
                    • 328

                    #10
                    RJT- Good luck today! I am already on the BoSox.
                    Comment
                    • LGBoots
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 08-10-05
                      • 742

                      #11
                      All aboard the BoSox express
                      Comment
                      • MonkeyF0cker
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 06-12-07
                        • 12144

                        #12
                        Originally posted by rjt721
                        Cain's ERA is more than a full run lower than Dontrelle's (4.02/5.15), while his WHIP and BAA are also substantially better (1.41, .245/1.65, .299). Far from identical numbers.
                        Well I was actually talking more about their last three starts:

                        Willis: 13 1/3 IP 0-3 13ER 28H 7BB 8K

                        Cain: 13 1/3 IP 0-3 12ER 17H 11BB 7K
                        Comment
                        • Razz
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-22-05
                          • 5632

                          #13
                          Good luck rjt, going to be against the Red Sox, but I'd lean with you on the other two. Good luck on them.
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #14
                            Seems like the BoSox are the SBR pick today. Hard to not take them at that price against TB.
                            Comment
                            • bigboydan
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 08-10-05
                              • 55420

                              #15
                              I too like the Red Sox today guys.
                              Comment
                              • onlooker
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 08-10-05
                                • 36572

                                #16
                                I don't agree with one of your leans. I like the Athletics today at +105.

                                Good luck with your plays RJT.
                                Comment
                                • Razz
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-22-05
                                  • 5632

                                  #17
                                  Baseball's a funny game. You could have easily gone 3-0, were looking at 0-3 somehow (WTF happened in LA?), but it looks like Blowston is going to get it done. Hope the Giants get it done for you in the 9th, but I'm not holding my breath with that offense.
                                  Comment
                                  • rjt721
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-06-07
                                    • 7929

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Razz
                                    Baseball's a funny game. You could have easily gone 3-0, were looking at 0-3 somehow (WTF happened in LA?), but it looks like Blowston is going to get it done. Hope the Giants get it done for you in the 9th, but I'm not holding my breath with that offense.
                                    Yeah, tell me about it. It ended up being a very good day, especially considering an hour ago 0-3 appeared likely. I'll take my chances with Papelbon and a 2-run lead in the ninth any day. After Gomes tied it up, I thought it was inevitable TB would go on to win, but despite Francona managing the game about as poorly as humanly possible (bringing Lester out for the 7th with a fully rested pen was comical), it turned out all right.

                                    Nice result in SF. Who would've thought Benitez would pitch a scoreless 8th and Gregg would be the one to give it up? Weird game indeed.
                                    Comment
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