Wednesday's Front Page Picks (July 25)

Willie Bee · 07-25-07, 10:27 AM

Mariners +100 with Batista to sail past Rangers

Game Time: 07/25/2007 08:35 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Mariners were shockingly swept in a doubleheader by the reeling Rangers later, but they should bounce back today with Batista. Look for Seattle to atone.

With virtually no chance of making the post-season, the Texas Rangers have now officially transitioned into the role of spoiler.

They put a big dent in the Seattle Mariners plans of making the playoffs by beating them twice on Tuesday, sweeping a double-header in Arlington. As if that is not bad enough, both were heartbreaking one-run losses for the club from Seattle. For the Rangers to win two games in the same week, let alone the same day, is quite an accomplishment, considering how bad their pitching is and how much beat up they are physically. They are hurting at positions like second base, where Ian Kinsler has been on the Disabled List with a foot injury, and they have gone from Jerry Hairston to Ramon Vazquez to Desi Relaford to try and fill that void.

Kinsler is expected back by perhaps this weekend, but Texas will still be without Otsuka and Blalock, and facing the distraction of the possible trade of first baseman Mark Teixiera before the end-of-the month deadline. Seattle needs to bounce back, and it is fortunate to have one of thier biggest winners this season on the mound in the form of veteran right-hander Miguel Batista, who has pitched very well in most of his starts. The Mariners have taken advantage, going 12-7 in his 19 outings in 2007.

Batista has turned it up a notch recently as well, with a 2.79 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his last three starts. Take the Mariners to quickly erase yesterday’s memory.

Free Pick: Mariners +100

Willie Bee · 07-25-07, 10:29 AM

Red Sox -105 to take third straight from Indians

Game Time: 07/25/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

Both Beckett and Carmona have good numbers, but Beckett has the far superior WHIP, and the Red Sox are bashing right-handed pitchers, so take Boston.

The Boston Red Sox have taken the first three games of this four-game series in Cleveland against the Indians, and we look for them to make it three straight tonight behind Josh Beckett.

Now we realize that the Indians are usually tough at home, and they are still 34-17 at Jacobs Field even after losing the last two games. However, they simply have been unable to solve the Red Sox here, as Boston is now 8-2 in the last 10 visits. Beckett is having a fine year, at 13-3 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, and he stifles the normally potent Cleveland lineup in his only start against them this year, allowing two runs on only three hits in seven innings.

Granted, Faustino Carmona of the Tribe also has good numbers, at 12-4 with a 3.52 ERA. What has us concerned in this spot, however, is his rather mediocre 1.31 WHIP. He has been able to pitch around putting men on base all year, but then again he has yet to face the Red Sox. Boston has crushed right-handed pitchers lately, hitting a robust .305 against them over the last 10 games, so they well be less forgiving vs. Carmona when batting with men on base.

Thus we look for the Sox to score enough runs here to set up the possibility of a sweep on Thursday.

Free Pick: Red Sox -105

Willie Bee · 07-25-07, 10:30 AM

Diamondbacks -166 with Webb to snake Marlins

Game Time: 07/25/2007 09:40 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Cy Young winner Webb has pitched well at home this season, while Olsen has been terrible on the road. Lay the juice with the Diamondbacks at home tonight.

Scott Olsen of the Florida Marlins is 2-5 with a poor 6.10 ERA and an awful 2.01 WHIP in 10 road starts this season.

Conversely, reining Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb of the Arizona Diamondbacks has a respectable 3.77 ERA in his nine home starts, with the team going 5-4 in those games. Webb does not have particularly great career stats vs. the Marlins, but he has pitched very well the last two times that he faced them, allowing just three earned runs through 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA. The Diamondbacks won both of those games, including a 6-3 winner most recently.

While Webb has averaged a healthy 6.2 innings in his home starts, Olsen has averaged less than five innings on the road. Olsen was also the losing pitcher in that 6-3 contest to Webb, his lone start vs. Arizona, and he got rocked for nine hits, three walks and all six runs in just five innings. That translates to a 10.80 ERA and 2.40 WHIP!

It is also worth noting that the Marlins are a money-burning 1-4 as road underdogs in the +150 to +175 range this season, and just 11-21 in that role since 2005. Lay the price with Webb and Arizona.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -166

Willie Bee · 07-25-07, 10:31 AM

Play Halos & A's Under 8

Game Time: 07/25/2007 03:35 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

The Angels and Athletics send two talented right-handers to the mound in John Lackey and Joe Blanton this afternoon. And that has the Under looking mighty good in this one.

John Lackey (12-6, 3.21), the Angels' starting pitcher here tonight against the Oakland, has been one of the Halos' top hurlers all season long. The veteran righty also has a great history in this series vs the Athletics as is evident by a 10-3 record and a stingy 2.86 ERA in 20 career outings.

His pitching opponent from the A's, Joe Blanton (8-7, 3.53), has also been a consistent cog in his team's rotation, having allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 10 appearances and has gone seven or more innings seven times during that span. With two quality throwers on the hill, this game has a high probability of staying under the set total.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Lackey has seen seven of his last eight starts vs AL West division rivals stay under the set total. The A's have gone under in seven of their last eight with a total between 7-8½. These two teams have combined to score seven or fewer runs in six of seven head-to-head tilts this season. Play Under.

Free Pick: Athletics-Angels Under 8

Willie Bee · 07-25-07, 10:33 AM

Play Hamels & Phils on run line vs Nationals

Game Time: 07/25/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Price | touthouse.com

This should be an easy triumph for Cole Hamels and the Phillies. Back the Philadelphia southpaw at home tonight vs the Washington Nationals.

The Nationals don't stand a chance against Cole Hamels and the red-hot Phillies tonight.

Hamels is 11-5 this season overall and a brilliant 6-2 at home. Washington is just 4-21 against the moneyline in road games vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last two seasons. In order to strand a lot of base runners, you have to produce a lot of base runners. Washington has lost the games fitting this situation by an average of 2.7 runs per game.

Take the Phillies on the run line.

Free Pick: Phillies -1½ (-109)

Willie Bee · 07-25-07, 10:36 AM

Bet Beckett, Boston at Cleveland

Game Time: 07/25/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Cleveland's Jacobs Field has yet another doozy of a pitching matchup tonight as Boston's Josh Beckett battles the Tribe's Fausto Carmona. Back the Red Sox behind their ace.

The Red Sox look to make it three in a row tonight over the Cleveland after taking Game 2 last night in a 1-0 gem of a game. Boston has won five in a row and sits high atop the NL East, 7½ games in front of the Yankees. One can never say that Boston has the division in their pockets but at 61-39 playing only .500 ball the rest of the season would force the Yankees to go 39-24 (62%). So unless the Red Sox collapse again they are not likely to be caught.

Boston's current win streak, outside of last night's game, is backed by a very potent offense that has seen them average 6.4 runs per game on .324 hitting. Their bullpen has been no slouch either as they are a perfect 14 for 14 in save opportunities when on the road this season with a sparkling 2.10 ERA.

To add to Cleveland's woes tonight, Boston will send their ace Josh Beckett to the mound who comes in at 13-3 with a 3.41 ERA. When Beckett has been on the road it has been lights out for their opponents as he is a perfect 6-0 with a microscopic 1.71 ERA.

Although Cleveland has lost the first two games of the four-game set, they are also certainly no slouch this season. Cleveland has the third-best record in the AL at 58-42 and sit only 1½ games in back of the Tigers in the Central Division. Their offense takes a backseat to no one either as they are plating 5.9 runs per game at home this season while hitting .289.

The Indians will be sending a solid arm to the mound as well in right-hander Fautso Carmona who will be making his 20th start of the year and is an impressive 12-4 with a 3.52 ERA on the season. When at home, Carmona is 6-2 with a slightly higher 4.20 ERA. This will be the first time that he has faced the Red Sox.

Supporting Trends: Beckett is 14-4 (+10.3 Units) against the moneyline in road games in games played on a grass field over the last two seasons. Cleveland is 16-23 (-16.1 Units) against the moneyline in July home games in July games over the last three seasons. Boston is 23-9 (+12.6 Units) against the moneyline vs. a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season.

Sure, Cleveland is tough at home this year (34-17) but Boston has shown that they have the pitching and power to win. The pitching matchup is outstanding tonight but I can't see the Cleveland right-hander standing toe-to-toe with Beckett. I'm taking the better pitcher at a great price. I'm taking Boston in this one.

Free Pick: Red Sox -106

Willie Bee · 07-25-07, 10:37 AM

Angels the play against Athletics

Game Time: 07/25/2007 03:35 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

All-Star right-hander John Lackey gives the Angels the advantage this afternoon against Joe Blanton and the Athletics. Back the Halos at home in Anaheim against Oakland.

Prior to last night's meeting between the clubs both were struggling over their last 10 games.

Over their last 28 games the A's are a horrible 8-20. In their last 14 games as an underdog they are 4-10. Joe Blanton is on the mound this afternoon and Oakland has lost his last three starts and five of his last six. In Blanton's eight career starts vs. the Angels, the A's are 2-6.

The Angels are 51-23 in their last 74 home games. The Angels are 14-6 in their last 20 games as a favorite of -150 to -200. In John Lackey's last eight starts vs AL West opponents, the Angels are 7-1. The Halos have won 10 of his last 14 home starts and have won five of his last seven starts vs. the A's. Play on the Angels.

Free Pick: Angels -180

Willie Bee · 07-25-07, 10:38 AM

Webb & Snakes the play vs Fish

Game Time: 07/25/2007 09:40 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

Arizona sends last year's NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb against Florida's troubled Scott Olsen this evening. Play the Diamondbacks at home in this one when they host the Marlins.

Arizona starter Brandon Webb is in excellent strikeout/walk form with a better than 4 to 1 K/BB ratio in his last three starts.

Florida starter Scott Olsen has allowed 12 runs in 12.1 innings of work in his last three road starts. We like the Diamondbacks to make it three-straight wins over the Marlins in this four-game series. Play on Arizona (Webb vs. Olsen).

Free Pick: Diamondbacks -170

moses millsap · 07-25-07, 02:26 PM

Marc Lawrence is on fire lately.