Solid day Monday, easily winning the big play and going 4-2 overall. Smaller card Tuesday, probably going to add Vazquez against Bonderman if the price is right.
Medium:
Twins +115 (Baker/McGowan)
I’m a huge fan of Dustin McGowan. He’s going to be a top of the line starter very shortly. But he’s struggled to put back to back quality starts together. He’s coming off a win at Yankee Stadium, which may be a particularly big letdown situation. And I’m starting to really like Baker as well. He’s had very good success in his last six starts, his road numbers are good (4.78 ERA but a 1.19 WHIP signifies that ERA will improve) and he doesn’t walk anybody.
And as well as the Blue Jays hit lefties - and why it wasn’t surprising that they had success even against Santana - they haven’t been able to hit righties. The Twins do not have that problem, and not only do they have the better bullpen, they didn‘t have to use Neshek or Nathan today while the Jays used the heart of their bullpen. This should be a good opportunity for Minnesota to even the series.
Indians -125 (Sabathia/Matsuzaka)
Most of Matsuzaka’s troubles this year have come against elite offenses. Against the top ten offenses he has faced (Tigers, Yankees, Indians, and Rangers) he has a 6.69 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Against everyone else he has a 2.07 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Most importantly, the Indians weren’t impressed by him when they rocked him to the tune of 12 hits and 6 ER in 5.2 IP.
The Indians crush righties at home (25-10, 6.14 rpg) while the Red Sox have really struggled against lefties on the road (4-10, 3.78 rpg). Ramirez has awesome career numbers against Sabathia, but with Ortiz still injured CC will be more able to pitch around him, and none of the other Sox hitters have shown the ability to hit CC.
Light:
Nationals +150 (Bergmann/Kendrick)
Jason Bergmann’s ERA ballooned when he gave up 8 ER in 4.1 IP a couple starts ago, but at 4.46 it is almost identical to Kyle Kendrick’s 4.40. The difference is that Bergmann’s WHIP (1.20 to 1.33), BAA (.219 to .275), and K/BB ratio (54-28 to 17-11) are all much better. With the Nationals having the better bullpen and the Phillies coming off a long road trip, the price is right for Washington here.
Medium:
Twins +115 (Baker/McGowan)
I’m a huge fan of Dustin McGowan. He’s going to be a top of the line starter very shortly. But he’s struggled to put back to back quality starts together. He’s coming off a win at Yankee Stadium, which may be a particularly big letdown situation. And I’m starting to really like Baker as well. He’s had very good success in his last six starts, his road numbers are good (4.78 ERA but a 1.19 WHIP signifies that ERA will improve) and he doesn’t walk anybody.
And as well as the Blue Jays hit lefties - and why it wasn’t surprising that they had success even against Santana - they haven’t been able to hit righties. The Twins do not have that problem, and not only do they have the better bullpen, they didn‘t have to use Neshek or Nathan today while the Jays used the heart of their bullpen. This should be a good opportunity for Minnesota to even the series.
Indians -125 (Sabathia/Matsuzaka)
Most of Matsuzaka’s troubles this year have come against elite offenses. Against the top ten offenses he has faced (Tigers, Yankees, Indians, and Rangers) he has a 6.69 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. Against everyone else he has a 2.07 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Most importantly, the Indians weren’t impressed by him when they rocked him to the tune of 12 hits and 6 ER in 5.2 IP.
The Indians crush righties at home (25-10, 6.14 rpg) while the Red Sox have really struggled against lefties on the road (4-10, 3.78 rpg). Ramirez has awesome career numbers against Sabathia, but with Ortiz still injured CC will be more able to pitch around him, and none of the other Sox hitters have shown the ability to hit CC.
Light:
Nationals +150 (Bergmann/Kendrick)
Jason Bergmann’s ERA ballooned when he gave up 8 ER in 4.1 IP a couple starts ago, but at 4.46 it is almost identical to Kyle Kendrick’s 4.40. The difference is that Bergmann’s WHIP (1.20 to 1.33), BAA (.219 to .275), and K/BB ratio (54-28 to 17-11) are all much better. With the Nationals having the better bullpen and the Phillies coming off a long road trip, the price is right for Washington here.
