Looking at a 3-3 Saturday, for a decent profit because both bigger plays won. All five of these are small plays:
Braves -115 (Reyes/Thompson)
The fact that Thompson has a winning record is truly amazing, considering his numbers and his mediocre team. He’s been particularly bad on the road (5.69 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .307 BAA), and opponents are hitting him better as the season progresses (.262 in April, .295 in May, .305 in June, .367 in July).
Reyes’s numbers are also not good, but he made a giant leap from his first start to his second start (and I think he'll be a star in the not-too-distant future, though that's purely my opinion), and with the Braves having large lineup and bullpen advantages, there’s no reason I see not to lay the short number here.
Mariners +135 (King/Doc)
Interesting price here on Halladay’s head considering he has been an average pitcher this season. He is coming off an impressive start at Yankee Stadium, but he hasn’t been the Doc of old that would have justified this price against a premier team. Hernandez hasn’t been great, but his road numbers are very impressive (3.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .243 BAA), and with a similar or better lineup and bullpen, I’ll take this dog price.
Royals +161 (Bannister/Robertson)
Well, the Royals obviously aren’t intimidated by playing at Detroit. They swept the Tigers there in the final series of the year last year, blew them out in the opener of this series, and then lost in extra innings Saturday. They’re playing well, scoring plenty of runs, and they have a nice pitching advantage in this game. Despite similar records, Bannister (3.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) is pitching better than Robertson (4.53 ERA, 1.51 WHIP), who’s quality start last time out was his first in his last ten starts. The Royals have an obvious bullpen advantage to start with, and they would seem to be more rested after recent events.
Angels +106 & Under 9.5 -105 (Saunders/Garza)
I’ve always been a fan of Saunders. He’s a solid lefty, but he can’t stay healthy, which keeps him out of the public eye. He isn’t overpowering, but he keeps his team in games - the opponent has scored 4 or fewer runs in all five of his starts this year - and I always look to take good lefty pitchers against the Twins.
Now, Garza has a 0.00 ERA. He’s given up 14 base runners, one run, and no earned runs in 15 innings. He’s very good, but he’s not THAT good, no one is. I expect him to be good but not great in this one. Something like 4-3 Angels makes a lot of sense.
Good luck everyone, I won't be around until tomorrow evening, but I wish you the best on all your plays.
Braves -115 (Reyes/Thompson)
The fact that Thompson has a winning record is truly amazing, considering his numbers and his mediocre team. He’s been particularly bad on the road (5.69 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .307 BAA), and opponents are hitting him better as the season progresses (.262 in April, .295 in May, .305 in June, .367 in July).
Reyes’s numbers are also not good, but he made a giant leap from his first start to his second start (and I think he'll be a star in the not-too-distant future, though that's purely my opinion), and with the Braves having large lineup and bullpen advantages, there’s no reason I see not to lay the short number here.
Mariners +135 (King/Doc)
Interesting price here on Halladay’s head considering he has been an average pitcher this season. He is coming off an impressive start at Yankee Stadium, but he hasn’t been the Doc of old that would have justified this price against a premier team. Hernandez hasn’t been great, but his road numbers are very impressive (3.35 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .243 BAA), and with a similar or better lineup and bullpen, I’ll take this dog price.
Royals +161 (Bannister/Robertson)
Well, the Royals obviously aren’t intimidated by playing at Detroit. They swept the Tigers there in the final series of the year last year, blew them out in the opener of this series, and then lost in extra innings Saturday. They’re playing well, scoring plenty of runs, and they have a nice pitching advantage in this game. Despite similar records, Bannister (3.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) is pitching better than Robertson (4.53 ERA, 1.51 WHIP), who’s quality start last time out was his first in his last ten starts. The Royals have an obvious bullpen advantage to start with, and they would seem to be more rested after recent events.
Angels +106 & Under 9.5 -105 (Saunders/Garza)
I’ve always been a fan of Saunders. He’s a solid lefty, but he can’t stay healthy, which keeps him out of the public eye. He isn’t overpowering, but he keeps his team in games - the opponent has scored 4 or fewer runs in all five of his starts this year - and I always look to take good lefty pitchers against the Twins.
Now, Garza has a 0.00 ERA. He’s given up 14 base runners, one run, and no earned runs in 15 innings. He’s very good, but he’s not THAT good, no one is. I expect him to be good but not great in this one. Something like 4-3 Angels makes a lot of sense.
Good luck everyone, I won't be around until tomorrow evening, but I wish you the best on all your plays.
Razz!
