Played these all early at Jamaica, because I won't be around to play 5Dimes reduced or at matchbook tomorrow for personal reasons.
Strong plays:
Giants +169 (Cain/Zambrano)
Everyone is so convinced the Cubs are hot, but they have been tearing up bad pitchers and doing nothing against good ones. Cain is very similar to Lincecum and the Cubs looked lost against him all night. Zambrano will likely be pitching to a new catcher, with could throw him over his current hot form. His home numbers are mediocre, and Aurillia (4-14), Durham (4-11), Klesko (5-10), Roberts (4-8), Vizquel (3-11), and Winn (3-6) have all hit him pretty well. Cain is totally capable of shutting the Cubs out, and if you throw out the records, he's put up numbers equal to or better than Zambrano. Even with the meltdown last night, the Giants still have a better bullpen, and +169 is way too generous for Matt Cain to be getting against what is still a fradulent team.
Pirates -110 (Snell/Francis)
Ian Snell has awesome home numbers and dominated the Rockies in his lone start against them. Francis has gotten rocked in three of his last four starts and the Pirates have hit him hard in his past:
Medium plays:
Devil Rays -103 (Kazmir/Colon) & Over 9 -110
Last eight starts for Bartolo Colon: 1-4, 40.2 IP, 68 hits, 15 BB, 41 ER, 9.18 ERA, 2.04 WHIP. Road stats: 7.81 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, .358 BAA. He's favored. On the road. Against one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. The over play is because Kaz has two things working against him - he's off a win over the Yankees, which is generally a fade situation, and he's got no bullpen support.
Small plays:
Phillies +120 (Kendrick/Billingsley)
The Phillies crush righties. The Dodgers struggle with them. Both pitchers are similar, but I like Kendrick better than Billingsley because he has better overall potential and he works deeper into games (6.0 or more IP in all six starts).
Tigers +182 (Miller/Santana)
People are infatuated with Santana's second half numbers, that's nice, but what is important is that the Tigers are the best lineup in baseball, they annihilate LHP, and Andrew Miller is a budding star. The Twins don't hit LHP very well, and unless Santana is perfect, they may get beaten. Either way, I think Miller keeps them in the game, and this line is insane for what most agree is the best team in baseball.
Strong plays:
Giants +169 (Cain/Zambrano)
Everyone is so convinced the Cubs are hot, but they have been tearing up bad pitchers and doing nothing against good ones. Cain is very similar to Lincecum and the Cubs looked lost against him all night. Zambrano will likely be pitching to a new catcher, with could throw him over his current hot form. His home numbers are mediocre, and Aurillia (4-14), Durham (4-11), Klesko (5-10), Roberts (4-8), Vizquel (3-11), and Winn (3-6) have all hit him pretty well. Cain is totally capable of shutting the Cubs out, and if you throw out the records, he's put up numbers equal to or better than Zambrano. Even with the meltdown last night, the Giants still have a better bullpen, and +169 is way too generous for Matt Cain to be getting against what is still a fradulent team.
Pirates -110 (Snell/Francis)
Ian Snell has awesome home numbers and dominated the Rockies in his lone start against them. Francis has gotten rocked in three of his last four starts and the Pirates have hit him hard in his past:
Bay 7-9, .778, 2B, 2 HR
Castillo 5-11, .455, 3B
Doumit 2-3, .667
Duffy 1-3, .333
LaRoche 2-3, .667, 2B
Nady 4-11, .364, 2B, HR
Paulino 2-5, .400
Sanchez 2-11, .182, 2B
Wilson 4-12, .333
Castillo 5-11, .455, 3B
Doumit 2-3, .667
Duffy 1-3, .333
LaRoche 2-3, .667, 2B
Nady 4-11, .364, 2B, HR
Paulino 2-5, .400
Sanchez 2-11, .182, 2B
Wilson 4-12, .333
Devil Rays -103 (Kazmir/Colon) & Over 9 -110
Last eight starts for Bartolo Colon: 1-4, 40.2 IP, 68 hits, 15 BB, 41 ER, 9.18 ERA, 2.04 WHIP. Road stats: 7.81 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, .358 BAA. He's favored. On the road. Against one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. The over play is because Kaz has two things working against him - he's off a win over the Yankees, which is generally a fade situation, and he's got no bullpen support.
Small plays:
Phillies +120 (Kendrick/Billingsley)
The Phillies crush righties. The Dodgers struggle with them. Both pitchers are similar, but I like Kendrick better than Billingsley because he has better overall potential and he works deeper into games (6.0 or more IP in all six starts).
Tigers +182 (Miller/Santana)
People are infatuated with Santana's second half numbers, that's nice, but what is important is that the Tigers are the best lineup in baseball, they annihilate LHP, and Andrew Miller is a budding star. The Twins don't hit LHP very well, and unless Santana is perfect, they may get beaten. Either way, I think Miller keeps them in the game, and this line is insane for what most agree is the best team in baseball.