Mets RL (+130): Sosa could be in for a rough time today, but Philly starter Happ is likely in for a much rougher one. He hasn't really proven himself on the minor league level yet, but now he is being sent out against a reasonable major league lineup in a hitter-friendly park. If the Mets jump out to a sizable early lead, Sosa will probably settle down and have an ok outing, and the Mets pen should be able to keep Philly at arm's length.
Pittsburgh ML (-155): Gorzelanny should have an easier time in this game than he has had in his recent starts, which were mostly decent and against strong lineups. Washington is really struggling at the plate right now, and just not winning games. Facing a starter like Gorzelanny who can settle into a groove and shut weaker-hitting teams down does not bode well for them. Simontacchi is ok, but Pittsburgh should be able to get to him enough to come out on top. To win this one, Washington will have to both get a good start from Simontacchi and produce against Gorzelanny, neither of which is a particularly likely occurrence. In the end, Pittsburgh has value at this line IMO.
Atlanta RL (+110), over (9 -110): Atlanta's offensive resurgence appeared to continue yesterday, and they face another questionable starter in Kim today. If it's for real, they will likely roll over Kim and the Florida middle relievers as they did yesterday. Even if they don't, if Tim Hudson has another shut-down start, they won't need much to clear the RL.
The over has value on its own, and also hedges the RL bet a bit, considering Tim Hudson's relatively high degree of volatility. If Hudson gets hit, the over is very likely to win. If Hudson is on his game, the RL is very likely to win. And of course, both could well win in either case.
Pittsburgh ML (-155): Gorzelanny should have an easier time in this game than he has had in his recent starts, which were mostly decent and against strong lineups. Washington is really struggling at the plate right now, and just not winning games. Facing a starter like Gorzelanny who can settle into a groove and shut weaker-hitting teams down does not bode well for them. Simontacchi is ok, but Pittsburgh should be able to get to him enough to come out on top. To win this one, Washington will have to both get a good start from Simontacchi and produce against Gorzelanny, neither of which is a particularly likely occurrence. In the end, Pittsburgh has value at this line IMO.
Atlanta RL (+110), over (9 -110): Atlanta's offensive resurgence appeared to continue yesterday, and they face another questionable starter in Kim today. If it's for real, they will likely roll over Kim and the Florida middle relievers as they did yesterday. Even if they don't, if Tim Hudson has another shut-down start, they won't need much to clear the RL.
The over has value on its own, and also hedges the RL bet a bit, considering Tim Hudson's relatively high degree of volatility. If Hudson gets hit, the over is very likely to win. If Hudson is on his game, the RL is very likely to win. And of course, both could well win in either case.