Guthrie/Pettite Under 9

[Razz]

Early play for Tuesday.
Let's start with some incredibly impressive numbers. Jeremy Guthrie leads all of baseball with a 0.89 WHIP on the season. Since moving full-time to the O's rotation at the start of May, Guthrie has been the best pitcher in baseball. He's made nine starts. All nine were quality starts:

6.0 IP, 6 hits, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 K, W
8.1 IP, 3 hits, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, ND
7.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 10 K, ND
7.0 IP, 7 hits, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, ND
7.0 IP, 3 hits, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, W
8.0 IP, 3 hits, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 4 K, ND
8.0 IP, 6 hits, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 K, ND
7.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 5 K, ND
8.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K, W

66.0 IP, 40 hits, 14 R, 12 ER, 4 HR, 9 BB, 44 K, 3-0 record. That's a 0.74 WHIP and a 1.63 ERA!

Andy Pettite has been a model of consistency for the Yankees this year. His 3.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are nice, but what I really like is that he is 20-5 career against Baltimore, including 12-3 at Camden Yards. Tejada's out of the lineup, and here are the numbers for the remaining Oriole players against Pettite:

Paul Bako 0-1, .000, 0 RBI
Jay Gibbons 8-18, .444, 1 2B, 1 K, 0 RBI
Chris Gomez 6-20, 4 K, .300, 1 RBI
Ramon Hernandez 1-10, .100, 3 K, 0 RBI
Aubrey Huff 3-16, .188, 1 2B, 3 K, 0 RBI
Nick Markakis 0-1, .000, 0 RBI
Kevin Millar 3-14, .214, 5 K, 1 RBI
Melvin Mora 5-19, .263, 2 2B, 2 K, 3 RBI
Corey Patterson 3-12, .250 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 K, 3 RBI
Jay Payton 4-17, .235, 1 HR, 3 K, 2 RBI
Brian Roberts 6-27, .222, 1 HR, 2 K, 1 RBI

.251 average, only 8 XB hits and 11 RBI in 155 plate appearances.

[bigboydan]

Guthrie has been a hidden Gem this year for the O's really.

[Razz]

Twins -105

Baker starting to get acclimated to MLB, Blue Jays playing well but it's always tough to win a series in the Metrodome. Twins average 0.8 more rpg against RHSP, Blue Jays average 0.6 fewer rpg against RHSP. Twins bullpen is really, really good at the back, and Baker should go at least six strong innings. Marcum is pitching well, but he was roughed up at the Metrodome last year: 5.0 IP, 8 hits, 2 BB, 4 ER.

[bigboydan]

I like your Twins play Razz.

[Razz]

Cubs -138

I'm not a big fan of either pitcher, but Rodrigo Lopez is in for a precipitous fall. Sure, he's 4-0, sure his ERA is 2.93. But, he's a career .500 pitcher, career ERA near 5, career WHIP over 1.4. He's still giving up over a hit an inning this year, he's just escaping trouble. I really think his record is in for a nosedive, and it will start here against a Cubs team that averages 1.7 more rpg against RHSP than LHSP. He isn't likely to get much run support. The Rockies are only averaging 3.8 rpg against LHSP, and with Lilly's home numbers (2.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .218 BAA, 46 K, 9 BB), they'll be lucky to manage that here.

[Razz]

I like your Twins play Razz.

Glad to hear it danno.

[Razz]

Last one, and I'm sure it's a bit of a donkey one, but:

Tigers Team Total Over Whatever

I don't have a clue what is going to happen with Nate Robertson in this game. But the Tigers are going to score a lot of runs. John Koronka is walking into a hornet's nest after the beating the Tigers took today, and not only does he face the best offense in baseball, he faces the best offense against LHSP in baseball. The Tigers score 6.6 rpg against LHSP, 6.9 rpg against LHSP at home, and they destroyed Koronka last year. In two starts against the Tigers, Koronka went 6.1 IP, gave up 12 hits, 3 BB, 10 ER, and only got 1 K. He's made two starts this year, against two of the worst offenses in baseball (Oakland and Houston), and he's 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA and a 2.03 WHIP. See ya in AAA.

[moses millsap]

No opinion on Detroit and Minny plays.

Very concerned about betting an under with both bullpens, especially Baltimore's. Even if they only see an inning and a third, they could easily surrender 5+ runs in a flash.

Think the Cubs are the right side, but I can't lay chalk with that team. Almost did and would've been a total waste tonight by winning the ML and losing the RL.

[onlooker]

Looking at the games tonight, I was leaning Blue Jays, but would like to see a better line. This will probably be one of the few times I don't agree with Dan.

[LT Profits]

Razz,

Is Koronka definitely starting? Last I heard, he was just one of three candidates to take the start, with relievers Eyre and Benoit being the other two.

[Razz]

Razz,

Is Koronka definitely starting? Last I heard, he was just one of three candidates to take the start, with relievers Eyre and Benoit being the other two.

Hmm, now listed as Eyre. I would expect the Tigers to rock him as well, but I guess I'll leave it alone.

[moses millsap]

Good calls Razz.

[bigboydan]

Good calls Razz.

Indeed

[Razz]

Thanks guys, glad the Twins managed to scrape another run in finally.

[bigboydan]

What catches your eye early tomorrow Razz?

[AC1318]

nice call razz

[Razz]

Looking at the Giants and/or under, Astros (career numbers strongly favor Williams, I think the price is high enough to justify a play), and Devil Rays (hoping to get more like +110). I'm not married to any of them though.