Thursday's Front Page Picks (Jun 21)

[Willie Bee]

Take Cubs -125 over Texas Rangers

Game Time: 06/21/2007 02:05 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

Sammy Sosa may have reached 600 dingers, but the Rangers are still a mess, so Ted Lilly and his 3.69 ERA get the call over Padilla today.

Now that Sammy Sosa has his 600th HR, Texas Rangers fans have nothing left to cheer about.

The Rangers have the worst record in baseball at 27-44, and their best player Mark Teixeira is on the Disabled List. Texas beat the Cubs last night, taking advantage of a slumping Jason Marquis. However, things figure to get tougher today for the Rangers, as they go up against Ted Lilly.

The veteran lefty is 5-4 with a 3.69 ERA this season for the Chicago Cubs, and he is 2-3, but with a 3.93 in his career against the Rangers. Lilly gave up one run on six hits over eight innings in his last start against San Diego. Conversely, Vincente Padilla is 3-8, with a 5.67 ERA for the Rangers, and he gave up six runs and 12 hits in five innings in his last start.

The Rangers are also 3-11 when Padilla starts this year, so lay the modest price with the Cubs.

Free Pick: Cubs -125

[Willie Bee]

Play Padres -115 at home vs. Orioles

Game Time: 06/21/2007 03:35 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

David Wells has been much better in his spacious home stadium than on the road this season, so look for the Padres to bounce back today.

The San Diego Padres close out their series with the Baltimore Orioles this afternoon with David Wells on the mound.

Wells’ numbers at home have been dramatically better than on the road this season, as he has a 2.95 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in San Diego, as opposed to a 7.08 ERA and 1.89 WHIP on the road.

Wells also has an 8-2 team record in his last 10 June starts, as well as a 14-4 team record on Thursdays, so the numbers all add up in the Padres’ favor here today.

Free Pick: Padres -115

[Willie Bee]

Rockies +175 over Clemens & Yankees

Game Time: 06/21/2007 03:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Rockies shocked the Yankees in the last two games, and with a hot Lopez facing an ice cold Yankee offense, look for a sweep at a huge price.

The Colorado Rockies have taken the first two games of this series from the New York Yankees, and we look for the Rocks to complete the Impossible Dream by finishing off the sweep at another great price today.

These are not the same Rockies as past seasons, as they have won the last two games because of pitching, limiting the Yankees to just one run in each game. They send another live arm to the hill today in Rodrigo Lopez, who is 3-0 with an outstanding 2.90 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in seven starts this season, with Colorado going 6-1 in his starts. Lopez has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a game this season. Furthermore all three of his wins have come in the altitude of home, and he posted Quality Starts in each of his last two appearances vs. the Yankees last season while he was with the Baltimore Orioles.

Now Roger Clemens has looked good in his first two starts, but he did lose 2-0 to the Mets in his last outing. Do not be surprised if something like that happens again, as Clemens may have to be just about perfect to overcome the hot pitching of Lopez and the ice cold Yankee offense in this series. Given those last two factors, we certainly feel that the Rockies are once again a quality value play at this inflated price.

Free Pick: Rockies +175

[Willie Bee]

Rangers & Padilla +115 to upset Cubs & Lilly

Game Time: 06/21/2007 02:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Vicente Padilla has pitched much better at home than on the road, and he has pitched well vs. the Cubs, so Texas gets the call as a small dog.

Texas Rangers outfielder Sammy Sosa reached a rare milestone Wednesday night when he cracked his 600th career home run off of the Cubs' Jason Marquis.

A couple of years ago, steroid allegations were swirling around the veteran outfielder before he stopped playing, but now all seems to be forgiven upon a successful return, albeit with a new team. Perhaps all that players like Mark McGwire and Juan Gonzalez need to do to fix their reputations is come out of retirement and set more milestones? But other than Sosa's remarkable comeback this year, not much else has gone right for Texas. Once again they have poor pitching, perhaps their worst pitching in years, and they can't seem to get enough timely hitting to offset the problems.

This afternoon, in the series finale against Sosa's former team, the Rangers will try and take two of three from the Chicago Cubs. They will be relying on Vicente Padilla, who certainly could be a poster child for the Rangers' pitching woes. But there are several reasons to like Padilla and Texas here, not the least of which is that he seems to pitch much better at home than on the road, and his opponent, lefthander Ted Lilly is just the opposite. Also, despite having a poor ERA over his last three starts, Padilla's strikeout to walk ratio has been outstanding at 11/2.

Padilla's teams have won three of his last four starts against the Cubs, and again the exact opposite is true of Lily, as his teams have lost three of his last four vs. the Rangers. Texas is also hitting a scorching .281 vs. southpaws this year, so Sosa could very well begin his climb to 700 today, so take the Rangers as a small dog.

Free Pick: Rangers +115

[Willie Bee]

Pick Cubs with Lilly -125 at Rangers

Game Time: 06/21/2007 02:05 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Vicente Padilla has been atrocious in his last three starts for Texas, so with Ted Lilly in fine form now, the Cubs are the play today.

Ted Lilly comes off an excellent start in which he held the San Diego Padres to just one run through eight complete innings.

That lowered the Chicago Cubs left-hander’s ERA to a respectable 3.69 in 14 starts this season, to go with a 1.06 WHIP. Vicente Padilla of the Texas Rangers, on the other hand, got rocked in his last start, allowing 12 hits, two of them home runs, and six runs in just five innings. That gives him a 6.57 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 14 starts this season, with the Rangers going just 3-11 as a team.

Padilla also has a terrible 10.66 ERA and 2.684 WHIP his last three starts, so play Chicago.

Free Pick: Cubs -125