DOG Days of Summer - 6/19

[Senator7]

1-0 yesterday as the Royals cashed.

Considering:

San Francisco +161

Washington +140

Toronto +120

NY Mets +126

Tampa Bay +119

My favorites (and most likely plays) are San Fran, the Mets, and Tampa Bay.

As always, this thread and its discussion is DOGS ONLY!

[bigboydan]

I feel there is some value there with SF tomorrow as well, but I don't know what to really think about that Giants team right now. It's like they just don't care anymore or something, because it's all about the Bonds traveling circus every night.

[AC1318]

I am on

PITT +107

COL +154

SF +157

for my dogs

[AC1318]

1-0 yesterday as the Royals cashed.

Considering:

San Francisco +161

Washington +140

Toronto +120

NY Mets +126

Tampa Bay +119

My favorites (and most likely plays) are San Fran, the Mets, and Tampa Bay.

As always, this thread and its discussion is DOGS ONLY!

I like your SF TB and WASH plays good luck buddy

[Razz]

Toronto and NYM are both enticing, but Arizona is the value play in that other matchup. Not sure if I'll play them or not, they're the only tempting favorite tomorrow though. I sort of like:

Giants - Lincecum every bit as dynamic as Sheets. He got rocked last time out by a dialed in Blue Jay lineup. He'll be better tomorrow. Sheets was also hit hard last time out, though the numbers didn't show it as much.

Reds - Gaudin due for a fall, his numbers aren't indicative of how he's pitching. Bailey should have a lot of success in that big ballpark.

Orioles - Padres offensively too weak to justify this number, Orioles should have a rebirth after the firing.

Astros - Colon is a shell of his former self, Jennings much better. Even with the terrible pen, the price is too much here.

[rjt721]

I like the Mets and Reds tomorrow and, to a lesser extent, the Jays and Giants.

I think the line's a little short in the D'Backs game, but considering Arizona has never beaten TB (0-7 all-time) I'm not sure what to make of this one.

[onlooker]

Only two for me tomorrow:

Astros +157
Pirates +110

Good luck guys.

[The HG]

Yeah after I was done with my first look at tomorrow's games, I thought of this thread, because there looked like a lot of good underdogs to me.

Wash: Same reasoning as ever. Wash got blown out early yesterday and still almost came back. This one again should be competitive to the end.

Tor: I actually don't see much value here at all, I think LA should be a small favorite. Perhaps a tick smaller than they currently are though. The Dodger lineup is more likely to challenge McGowan than the other way around, and Penny is less likely to yield to a challenge than McGowan. Penny usually starts to wear down as the season grinds on, but he hasn't shown any signs at all of that yet.

Mets: Yes I think the Mets have value where they are right now. Sosa should rebound from his last start, and if he doesn't implode, which has only happened twice this year, and both times on the road, he is very likely to be able to keep pace with Santana. If both starters have strong starts, the Mets should have a good-sized advantage.

SF: I'm really not at all sold on this one yet at all. I do think the line may come down considerably, because of Lincecum and because SF almost pulled it out yesterday with yet another bad outing from Cordero.

But Lincecum, he might be fading a bit. Even a dialed-in Toronto lineup should not be able to get to someone like they did. Toronto does not have one of those lineups, like maybe Detroit or others, where they can force the issue and get to someone who is otherwise a good pitcher, and produce an aberration of a game.

Look at that Toronto lineup from that game: There was no DH. The 5-8 hitters were very sub-par. The leadoff guy/first baseman was a career minor leaguer who hit .260 with no pop in the minors last year (and was hitting .250 this year). That is not a lineup that can dial in and get to someone who is generally going good.

And his 2 starts before that last one were not good either. His control is off and he's getting hit. That's a sign of someone wearying.

I think he's a guy who has talent, and did phenomenally in the minors, then came up, had a bad start, but then proved himself with a string of strong outings. But now, it's the hangover period, the energy and focus is waning. He's only 5-11, 170, which is not big for a starting pitcher. I think he's getting fatigued.

Of course in the majors, if you're not close to the top of your game, you'll get hit no matter how much talent you have when you are on the top of your game.

Sheets is flawed of course, he always seems to be getting injured or having off days in between his common 7-inning 0-2 run starts. But he's a seasoned vet, he's been through all this a million times, he'll be battling again next start, this is not the whirlwind of expectation and fluctuation that it is for Lincecum.

And then you have the SF team - oldish, iffy bullpen, and they seem like they are in a funk in general.

Francisco Cordero is a real concern for Milwaukee, something does seem to be wrong with him now, and he will badly blow some games in the next few months, you can count on that. I wouldn't be surprised if he went on the DL soon, watch for that, or if he is removed as the closer by September. But that is something I'll be more worried about later against better teams.

I just don't see SF as a good pick here, there are bad signs all around them. They're on the road, in a funk, I see another loss, however it happens.

Col: I think there's a good amount of value here. Colorado's lineup is going well right now, and they could easily hit Mussina. Colorado could win this one in a slugfest, or in a low-scoring game if both starters have unexpectedly good starts. There's a reasonable chance Fogg will get crushed and Mussina will do ok, but anything other than that and Colorado should have a good edge.

TB: I think there's a little value here with TB. Howell is having a resurgence of sorts, and if he has a strong start, the lowly parts of TB's pen will not likely be involved in the game. Doug Davis can be good, but he is not going particularly well right now at all. His WHIP is high, and TB's lineup does have the ability to take advantage of a struggling starter.

[AC1318]

I like your SF TB and WASH plays good luck buddy

add toronto as I Like them too now.

[fifawcs]

I think Washington could totally win, but +135 just isn't enough for me to take them.

[EBone]

What a heartbreaker last night with the Astros!!!!!!! 1-3 last night with a couple of winning totals. If you had told me the Astros would score 9 runs last night, I would've told you that the Astros would win. Unreal. Oh, well. Today is a new day; I have 2 I'm gonna go heavy on.


NY Mets +127.....Love this one as the Mets, in my opinion, are the better team. Santana has had no support this year and Sosa, coming off a bad outing, should come back with a strong effort here. Like the Mets for 5 units.

Florida -102.....Willis as a dog vs possibly the worst team in the league? I'd say neutralizing Thome is the way to beat the White Sox because the rest of the lineup is anemic. Konerko and Dye are having horrid years so the lefty Willis will, hopefully, keep lefty Thome down. Yes, the White Sox scored 10 last night but they beat up on a guy making his 1st start this season. I'll take the Fish for 5.1 units to win 5.

Houston +146.....I'll reiterate an earlier post. I think if Jennings can emerge as a solid #2 or #3 for the Astros, they have a remote shot at the division as the Central is just awful. If you buy that Colon is "off" somehow, then the plus number should justify the play. 1 unit on the Astros even after the heartbreaker last night.


Good luck, S7. Would lean with the Bluejays and Giants tonight as well but have no opinion on the other two.


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[tevari]

0-2 yesterday

on SF, NYM, TOR, and KC tonight.

[Senator7]

Officially went with:

San Francisco +158

Washington +138

NY Mets +125

Tampa Bay +122

Best of luck today, fellas!

[Bulldog]

So far, only one I like is the Pirates...

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm on the Mets and D-Rays tonight. Maybe SF, but as stated it's hard to bet on this team even with those odds.

[Razz]

Houston +146..... If you buy that Colon is "off" somehow, then the plus number should justify the play. 1 unit on the Astros even after the heartbreaker last night.

That was a heartbreaker. It's easy to see Colon is off. Here's his last four starts combined totals (against the Reds, Cardinals, Mariners, and Tigers):

20.2 IP, 35 hits, 4 BB, 9 HR, 24 runs, 22 ER

That's terrible, and would get any pitcher with a lesser name sent to the minors. For a power pitcher, he isn't striking out anybody - 4.2 K per start).

[Razz]

Taken from poster "thesandman1" at therx:

I mentioned last week that the L.A. Dodgers are an incredible 1-20 in their last 21 InterLeague ROAD GAMES. I have never seen anything so lopsided. They have lost 96% of their I.L. road games. Tonight, at Toronto, is their first Interleague Road Game, the start of six games at American League cities. You may be afraid to play against Brad Penny but you probally didn't know that Brad Penny sucks big time in InterLeague games.

The Dodgers (39-30) are 2-7 against AL opponents this year while Penny has gone 0-1 with a 6.39 ERA in two starts. He is 1-8 with a 5.49 ERA in his last 12 starts against AL clubs, dating back to a win at Texas on June 13, 2003, while with Florida.

This is very strong information.

[Senator7]

Officially went with:

San Francisco +158

Washington +138

NY Mets +125

Tampa Bay +122

Best of luck today, fellas!

Apparently, the Law of Averages decided I needed a beatdown tonight!

[AC1318]

Sen7 it isn't looking good but it isn't over, only need to salvage 2 of them

SF and TB would be good as the other two are presumably fvcked for lack of a better word. I am on SF with you but that is it. Hope they pull it out.

[BuddyBear]

we really need SF...it's still possible. Lincecum needs to settle down quicly and SF needs to chip away. Last night was emotional for MIL...hoping they'll be hungover. it's hard to lose though when you can walk home runs.

[BuddyBear]

n/m....SF looks horrible. I am with you on TB though. Need a good start froom Howell.

[EBone]

Speakin of beatdown, the next time I go against Johan Santana someone needs to give me a beatdown. Good god, that was a massacre!


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