Wednesday's Front Page Plays (Jun 13)

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:06 AM

Bet Dodgers to sweep Mets

Game Time: 06/13/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

The Dodgers go for their first sweep of the Mets since 2002 tonight at home in Los Angeles. And with Brad Penny on the mound for them, the Dodgers will succeed.

Brad Penny takes his turn in the finale for the Dodgers vs. the Mets tonight as Los Angeles eyes their first sweep of the New Yorkers since 2002.

Penny, 7-1 on the year, will face the team that he has had the least success against in his eight-year career. He is 3-10 with a 6.16 ERA in 16 career starts against New York. In his only start against the Mets last season, a loss, the hard-throwing righty allowed seven runs on 10 hits in 5.2 innings.

The Mets counter with right-hander Jorge Sosa who his looking for seventh win of the season and his fourth in a row. Sosa is 0-0 with a 3.48 ERA in 10.1 innings in five games (one start) against the Dodgers. The Mets are in the midst of their worst losing streak this season, having lost four in a row and nine out of 11.

Look for Penny, with help from the Dodger bullpen, to complete the sweep!

Free Pick: Dodgers -130

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:07 AM

Padres, Devil Rays Over 8½

Game Time: 06/13/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Even with Jake Peavy on the mound tonight for San Diego, the Over will still cash in Tampa when the Padres and Devil Rays play Game 2 of their interleague series.

Our Wednesday MLB selection is on the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Devil Rays going over the total.

If Tampa had any starting pitching whatsoever other than Scott Kazmir and James Shields, they would be a very serious team to be reckoned with. As if they needed another young hitting star, it looks like they may have one in 2B/SS Brendan Harris who has been absolutely on fire lately. Along with players like Delmon Young, Akinori Iwamura, Rocco Baldelli (on the DL with a hamstring), and BJ Upton (day-to-day with a quadricep problem), Harris and Co. are the basis of perhaps the best young lineup in all of baseball.

The only negative on the "young guns" roster is outfielder Elijah Dukes, who, besides only batting .196 has also been a distraction of late due to reports that he impregnated a 17-year-old girl last fall. It's rumored that the D-Rays are trying to ship him out now rather than wait and see if this latest issue will blow over. There is enough firepower in this young lineup that the loss of Dukes will hardly matter.

But when you have to rely on Edwin Jackson, JP Howell, and Andy Sonnanstine as your numbers 3-4-5 starters, then it's easy to see where most of your problems lie. Jackson, tonight's starter, has been especially bad lately. Although Padres ace Jake Peavy still looks like one of the best in the NL and will be an All-Star and favorite for the Cy Young, he has been roughed up a bit a lately (seven earned runs in his last two starts over 13.2 innings) and has never pitched in the hitters' paradise known as The Trop. Take the Over.

Free Pick: Padres-Devil Rays Over 8½

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:08 AM

Diamondbacks +205 to Stun Yankees on ESPN

Game Time: 06/13/2007 07:05 PM -
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Yankees are hot, but there is loads of value on the Diamondbacks here, as Hernandez has been hot while Mussina has been very erratic, so look for a major upset.

Now we know that the Yankees have caught fire, winning seven games in a row, but we feel they are grossly overvalued here given this pitching matchup.

Mike Mussina is simply not what he used to be, as he has been one of the bigger money-burners in the Major Leagues this season. The Yankees are just 3-6 as a team in all the games that Mussina has started, usually as hefty favorites, and he has a high 5.63 ERA overall and a horrific 6.65 ERA in four starts here in Yankee Stadium! Yes he is coming off of possibly his finest outing of the season, allowing just one run and four hits in six innings, but keep in mind that came vs. a Chicago White Sox team that is dead last in the majors in batting.

The Arizona Diamondbacks counter with Livan Hernandez, who has now reeled off five consecutive Quality Starts to lower his ERA for the full season to a very good 3.66. In fact, Hernandez has officially recorded eight Quality Starts in his last nine outings. Moreover, in addition to statistically having the better starter in this game, the Diamondbacks have also had the better bullpen, as that unit has a 3.94 ERA and a fantastic 1.19 WHIP for the year, compared to a 4.21 ERA and 1.42 WHIP for the Yankees pen.

Finally, Arizona has virtually the same record on the road (17-14) as the Yankees do at home (16-13), so the D-Back simply ooze value here at better than two to one odds.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks +205

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:10 AM

Mariners the play at Cubs

Game Time: 06/13/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | touthouse.com

Seattle is on a roll, and still being overlooked by the linesmakers. Make your play on the Mariners tonight when they cash at Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs.

What gives? The linesmakers refuse to give the Mariners the credit they deserve as they are once again big underdogs despite playing some of the best baseball in the league.

The Mariners have won five straight games and are 16-5 over their last 21 games as the offense has been the big factor. Seattle has scored five runs or more in 19 of those 21 games, surpassing seven runs 10 times. The Cubs continue to struggle at home as they are just 12-18 at Wrigley Field on the year.

Miguel Batista has been average of late but it doesn’t matter with the offense that is behind him. Seattle has won his last four starts with only two of those being quality efforts as it averaged seven rpg in those games. Batista is 4-1 on the road with the Mariners winning five of his six road outings. Overall, five of his last eight starts have been quality performances so he has been pitching good enough to not have to solely rely on the offense behind him.

Sean Marshall has been a pleasant surprise since entering the Cubs rotation with four quality starts in four tries. However, things could change here against the potent Mariners offense. This will be the second straight game Seattle has seen a left-handed starter which is always an advantage for the offense even though it doesn’t even need an edge. The Mariners are hitting .315 on the road against left-handed pitching and they are now 13-3 against southpaw starters on the year.

With the Mariners being an underdog yet again, they fall into a solid situation identical to the one from last night. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 that are hitting .300 or better over their last 15 games against an opponent with a starting pitcher who has allowed two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 43-21 against the moneyline (67.2 percent) over the last five seasons. The Mariners keep things rolling along on Wednesday. Play Seattle for one unit.

Free Pick: Mariners +131

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:11 AM

Bet Mets & Dodgers Under 7½

Game Time: 06/13/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Two solid pitchers matched up in a pitcher's park make the Under an easy play this evening when Brad Penny and the Dodgers host Jorge Sosa and the reeling Mets.

Yesterday's game was of the low-scoring (4-1) variety and finished below the total. Tonight's game has a solid chance of doing the same.

Both pitchers have been excellent. Jorge Sosa, 6-1 with a 2.64 ERA for the season, has gone 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA his last three starts. He's gone 4-1 in five starts underneath the lights while holding opposing hitters to a mere .171 batting average. It's also worth noting that the Under is 6-1 his last seven road starts.

Meanwhile, in 12 starts underneath the lights Brad Penny has gone a sizzling 7-1 with a 1.96 ERA. Additionally, in seven home starts he's 3-0 with a miniscule 1.39 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a mere .204 batting average.

After last night's result, the Dodgers have now seen the Under go 7-3 their last 10 home games while the Mets have seen the Under go 14-6 their last 20 on the road. Consider a play on the Under.

Free Pick: Mets-Dodgers Under 7½

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:26 AM

Bet Mariners to sail past Cubs

Game Time: 06/13/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Both of tonight's starting hurlers are in fine form of late, but the difference is Seattle's offense is on a roll. Back the Mariners on the road tonight against the Chicago Cubs.

Sean Marshall, the Cubs' starting pitcher, has started four games this season, all of them quality outings. The tall southpaw has garnered a stingy 2.08 ERA in 26 innings of work while registering 26 strikeouts.

Miguel Batista, the Mariners' starting hurler, has looked consistent of late allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his last six outings. As the numbers suggest, both hurlers are in good form.

The difference maker comes on offense where the Mariners have been bashing all comers, especially southpaws, batting a sizzling .311 on the season while scoring average 5.7 RPG. Considering the Mariners current hot run that has seen them win 10 of their last 11 it will be easy to back them here again tonight.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Seattle has won nine straight interleague road games. Batista is 12-4 in his last 16 against the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +150. Play on Seattle.

Free Pick: Mariners +131

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:28 AM

Play the Pirates vs Rangers

Game Time: 06/13/2007 07:05 PM -
By: John Ryan | sportspic.com

The Pirates are at home with one of their best pitchers, Ian Snell, on the mound. With just a little help from the Pittsburgh offense, the Pirates should pop the Texas Rangers.

The only question I have is whether the Pirates' offense will score enough to win for Ian Snell.

Snell is one of my favorite pitchers over the past several seasons. He has a 2.91 ERA and a WHIP of 1.154 on the seasons. Over the last three starts he has a 2.45 ERA and a 0.955 WHIP. In six home starts he has given up just one home run.

Texas starter Robinson Tejeda is not anywhere close to even mediocre form sporting a 10.56 ERA and 1.956 WHIP over his last three starts. He has averaged just 4.9 innings per road start. Tejeda is 3-11 against the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. Tejeda may have won his last start against Milwaukee, but he gave up three home runs in the game. He is just terrible against left-handed hitters allowing a .323 batting average this season. Texas is 7-19 against the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Snell is 22-11 against the moneyline in night games over the last two seasons. He does not throw an abundance of fastballs as most MLB starters do. He throws 57% overall and 65% on the first pitch. He mixes in very good curves and sliders and an occasional change up. As a right-handed starter he likes to work up and away from left-handed batters, and low and away to right-handed batters.

Free Pick: Pirates -156

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:29 AM

Reward yourself with Reds on run line

Game Time: 06/13/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Steve Merril | touthouse.com

There's great value on the Reds and the run line at home tonight. Bet Cincinnati (+1½) this evening when they square off against John Lackey and the Angels.

The Reds performed well last night as an official Underdog System selection in their 5-3 upset win as a +140 underdog.

Cincinnati could pull another upset tonight as they now fit a subset of my Underdog System and the +1½ run line provides extra value in what should be a close game between two starters (John Lackey and Kyle Lohse) who are in excellent current form. Lohse has been fantastic recently for the Reds with an amazing 1.54 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his past three starts. Lohse has also pitched well at home this season with a 2.88 ERA and 1.223 WHIP in his five starts in Cincinnati.

Free Pick: Reds +1½ (+105)

Willie Bee · 06-13-07, 10:30 AM

Take Tigers to tame Brewers

Game Time: 06/13/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Brewers are in a tailspin and were no-hit last night by Justin Verlander and the Tigers. The winning continues for Detroit tonight at home versus Milwaukee.

The Brewers are 1-8 in their last nine road games. Milwaukee has also lost 10 of their last 12 interleague games. In Chris Capuano's last 15 road starts, the Brewers are a horrible 3-12.

The Tigers send Mike Maroth to the mound and they are 8-3 in his 11 starts this season. The Tigers are 22-7 in their last 29 interleague games. In their last 25 games as the favorite the Tigers are a money making 19-6. Detroit has won four of the last six meetings between the clubs.

Free Pick: Tigers -121

Razz · 06-13-07, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Bet Dodgers to sweep Mets

Game Time: 06/13/2007 10:10 PM -
By: Bob Harvey | bobharveysports.com

The Dodgers go for their first sweep of the Mets since 2002 tonight at home in Los Angeles. And with Brad Penny on the mound for them, the Dodgers will succeed.

Brad Penny takes his turn in the finale for the Dodgers vs. the Mets tonight as Los Angeles eyes their first sweep of the New Yorkers since 2002.

Penny, 7-1 on the year, will face the team that he has had the least success against in his eight-year career. He is 3-10 with a 6.16 ERA in 16 career starts against New York. In his only start against the Mets last season, a loss, the hard-throwing righty allowed seven runs on 10 hits in 5.2 innings.

The Mets counter with right-hander Jorge Sosa who his looking for seventh win of the season and his fourth in a row. Sosa is 0-0 with a 3.48 ERA in 10.1 innings in five games (one start) against the Dodgers. The Mets are in the midst of their worst losing streak this season, having lost four in a row and nine out of 11.

Look for Penny, with help from the Dodger bullpen, to complete the sweep!

Free Pick: Dodgers -130

This is the only play of the bunch with any positive expectancy.

BuddyBear · 06-13-07, 04:09 PM

Does anyone know their records?

bigboydan · 06-13-07, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Back Angels with Lackey over Reds

Game Time: 06/13/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

John Lackey has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season, while Kyle Lohse was bombarded the last time he faced the Angles, so back the Halos.

The Los Angeles Angels send John Lackey to the hill tonight, knowing he is in solid current form and has cashed in nine of his 13 team starts this season.

Lackey is among the league leaders in ERA at 2.70, and he has done his best pitching on the road, where he is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. On the flip side, Kyle Lohse of the Cincinnati Reds has a 4.22 ERA with a mediocre 1.35 WHIP, and he was bombed for eight runs in 3.1 innings the last time he faced the Halos!

With the Reds just 2-8 on Wednesdays, their worst day of the week, and 2-8 at in Game 2 of a home series this season, we'll back Lackey and the Angels here tonight.

Free Pick: Angels -150

As I mentioned in the cover page. I disagree with your Halo's pick today Mr. Lawrence. Lohse has pitched fairly decent in his past couple of starts, and his ERA is roughly half of what Lackey's is. Not to mention Lohse's WHIP is roughly .90, and he's been a work horse as well.