DOG Days of Summer - 6/4

bigboydan · 06-03-07, 11:39 PM

I can't take Boston in that game Senator. I'm not saying it's the wrong side, but after tonights game lasting as long as it did. Along with that long plane ride to the west coast. There plane probably won't land till roughly 6am est.

I do like the Cubs and O's plays though.

rjt721 · 06-04-07, 12:08 AM

I agree with bbd on the Sox, I can't play Boston under those circumstances, particularly against the best pitcher in the AL right now.

Like the O's, but I disagree with the Cubs play. I like Milwaukee in that game.

I also think there's value with the Twins tomorrow.

Senator7 · 06-04-07, 01:12 AM

I'm off Boston.

However, add Kansas City (+142) and Minnesota (+151) to the list...

onlooker · 06-04-07, 01:33 AM

The only one out of those I like, is the Cubs.

Good luck with them S7.

Terpman92 · 06-04-07, 04:51 AM

Little bears for sure!, leaning Giants and Zito.

AC1318 · 06-04-07, 06:55 AM

My dog vote for today would be

cubs

yankees

all other games it look like the favorites will take, bos oak toss up

desalvo and garland both stink but NYY plays well on ESPN as they won last night vs boston this should carry over to the wsox game should be a high scoring afair.

marquis is better than bush and the cubs found an offense yesterday while brew crew have been struggling to get a couple runs a game on florida.

I think the cubs are the dog of the day.

EBone · 06-04-07, 10:27 AM

Have taken both the Cubs and O's for one unit apiece today. I guess I'm a glutton for punishment with the O's. The betting info out there on the Cubs scares me a bit especially when I'm backing a ticking timebomb in Marquis but we'll give it a shot. Good luck to you today, S7.

E

Senator7 · 06-04-07, 12:01 PM

The deed is done:

San Francisco +106

Chicago Cubs +130

Kansas City +147

Baltimore +126

Good luck today, fellas!

Razz · 06-04-07, 12:04 PM

Surprised you're on the Cubs, that line is waaay short. Like the Balty play though, good luck.

LT Profits · 06-04-07, 01:17 PM

Wow I bet Seattle at -122 overnight. Scalp opportunity, although I don't do those things.

LT Profits · 06-04-07, 01:20 PM

Oh forgot, I like KC, Minny and believe it or not Boston. Don't like Cubs although I passed entirely.

Senator7 · 06-04-07, 02:16 PM

After what happened yesterday, if San Francisco blows this lead I might snap...

BuddyBear · 06-04-07, 03:40 PM

Why take CHIC....Dave Bush at home is very solid. Bush should be closer to -160. The Cubs are in turmoil. Yesterday's blowout was due to the starting pitcher ATL.

AC1318 · 06-04-07, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Why take CHIC....Dave Bush at home is very solid. Bush should be closer to -160. The Cubs are in turmoil. Yesterday's blowout was due to the starting pitcher ATL.

both bush and marquis stink

but at least marquis has a respectable win loss ratio

marquis w/l 5-2, t w/l 7-4........ bush w/l 3-5, t w/l 3-8

also bush 1-5 against cubs overall 1-2 at home vs them

marquis 3-8 vs brewers overall 1-3 at brewers

like I said they both stink but marquis has more wins both now and before.

BuddyBear · 06-04-07, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by AC1318

both bush and marquis stink

but at least marquis has a respectable win loss ratio

marquis w/l 5-2, t w/l 7-4........ bush w/l 3-5, t w/l 3-8

also bush 1-5 against cubs overall 1-2 at home vs them

marquis 3-8 vs brewers overall 1-3 at brewers

like I said they both stink but marquis has more wins both now and before.

So you are going to back a team like CHC...they are in total disarray right now. This team is going backward fast....but i'd back them as dogs before favorites. So at least you have that today.

Anyway, general rule of thumb is to bet on pitchers with a losing record who are favored against a pitcher with a winning record. This system will really heat up in the next few months. Dave Bush is a very very solid pitcher. Don't let his numbers fool you. He outdueled Tim Hudson last week.

AC1318 · 06-04-07, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

So you are going to back a team like CHC...they are in total disarray right now. This team is going backward fast....but i'd back them as dogs before favorites. So at least you have that today.

Anyway, general rule of thumb is to bet on pitchers with a losing record who are favored against a pitcher with a winning record. This system will really heat up in the next few months. Dave Bush is a very very solid pitcher. Don't let his numbers fool you. He outdueled Tim Hudson last week.

Anyway, general rule of thumb is to bet on pitchers with a losing record who are favored against a pitcher with a winning record.

Is this true and if so when, after the break???

I am not saying I am backing them but if I were to bet it would be cubs like I said I think both are not good but marquis is numbers wise better and plus $$.

Senator7 · 06-04-07, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

So you are going to back a team like CHC...they are in total disarray right now. This team is going backward fast....but i'd back them as dogs before favorites. So at least you have that today.

Anyway, general rule of thumb is to bet on pitchers with a losing record who are favored against a pitcher with a winning record. This system will really heat up in the next few months. Dave Bush is a very very solid pitcher. Don't let his numbers fool you. He outdueled Tim Hudson last week.

There are few people at SBR whose opinion I respect more than BuddyBear's, but I'm just not a fan of handicapping by systems. Baseball is a game of numbers and its all about the statistics for me...

Bush has pitched better than his numbers show, but Marquis has as well. His Expected ERA is almost a full run lower than his actual ERA. I realize the Cubs are in disarray, but I think there's value @ +130 with a team that is playing with its back against the wall and desperate for a win. Bush has struggled mightily against the Cubs and I expect that to continue tonight.

But don't worry, BB, The Crew will still win the NL Central.

BuddyBear · 06-04-07, 05:36 PM

Thanks guys. I appreciate the good discussion and kind words. I wish MIL won the N.L Central last year since i had them at a 25-1 bet to do so. This year I just have them Over 81.5 regular season wins. Hopefully that happens.

The theoretical framework for playing on pitchers with a losing record favored against those withpitchers with a winning record is two-fold:

1) Since the pitcher commands more consideration than any other position in baseball when setting the line, the linesmaker is showing tremedous respect by favoring a pitcher with a losing record over a picher with a winning record. The deeper into this season the more a feel the linesmaker has for that pitcher since they have seen him against more teams and seen them both home and away. So you have to believe that making the pitcher with the losing record a favorite is not by accident especially at this point in the season.

2) There is generally good value with laying the chalk since it typically tends to be small (usually up to -140 max) and you are usually going to be betting against the public which means there may be some line value from the opening line. In almost every instance you'll find that the public has jumped on the dog. It's almost always a bad sign when the public loads up on a dog. Usually betting behavior tends to be biased toward the favorite so when the public is on a dog that is usually out of the norm.

A better sign that the favorite is the right side of the game is when the public is heavy on the dog and the line moves in the unexpected direction (i.e. favorite becomes a bigger favorite). It typically reflects the sharp money coming in on the favorite.

Just as a side note, I think Dave Bush is the 2nd best pitcher on this team behind Ben Sheets. I think he has more scoreless innings than any other Brewer pitcher but maybe I am wrong there. But he is good....

Anyway, I have no betting interest tonight and wish you guys the best of luck.

The HG · 06-04-07, 05:38 PM

I like Milwaukee and Seattle in those 2 games. I agree with BuddyBear's opinion about the impact of yesterday's starting pitcher helping the Cubs out. They were also a different team when Hill was going well. But when a game is competitive, they wilt badly. Their offense disappears and their pen gives games away. Milwaukee may not be as good as they look so far this year, but they do have a legitimately solid lineup, and Bush is effective when he gets going, as he may be right now. I think the Cubs will be hard-pressed to get a lead and keep it in this one.

I also like Seattle. Baltimore has real pen troubles, and Seattle has a solid one. Seattle is hitting above their heads right now, but Felix is also pitching below his. If he had had a dominant start last time out, this line would be -150. He'll be back to normal soon, and it may well come with this game.

GL all.

BuddyBear · 06-04-07, 06:57 PM

Sorry i am a degenerate...i played MIL and SEA myself.

Guess i do have an interest tonight.