Phillies dispatch Rockies, prepare for Dodgers
The 2009 NLCS will be a repeat of the 2008 NLCS...at least in terms of participants. Philadelphia rallied in the ninth to win Game 4 of their NLDS series in Colorado to earn their shot at the Dodgers who fell in five to the Phils last October. But this is a different Los Angeles team than a year ago, boasting the best bullpen in the major leagues and a starting rotation that matches up well against the deep Phillies lineup.
A quick look at World Series outright odds early on Tuesday morning revealed the Philadelphia Phillies are getting about as much respect as Taylor Swift at an awards ceremony.
Thing is, like the teenage songstress, the Phillies also have some hardware in their back pockets: Namely, the Commissioner’s Trophy for winning the Fall Classic last season.
Following Philadelphia’s 5-4 win over Colorado on Monday night, one sportsbook opened the Phils as +465 underdogs to repeat as World Series champions. That put Philly two spots behind the Dodgers, who come into the best-of-seven National League Championship Series priced at +345 to cash their first title since Kirk Gibson limped around the bases in 1988.
I understand the Phillies have the worst record of the remaining four clubs, but this is a team with Cliff Lee, the very underrated J.A. Happ, and last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels in the rotation. That’s not to mention Philadelphia’s batting order is stacked.
Then I took a deeper look at the numbers, and realized instantly why oddsmakers are fading the Phillies for their NLCS matchup with the Dodgers.
NLCS: Philadelphia (+100) vs. LA Dodgers (-120)
The Dodgers’ pitching staff is going to be the difference when they clash with the Phillies in the NLCS beginning on Thursday night at Dodger Stadium.
It’s common knowledge L.A.’s arms finished the regular season with the best team ERA in baseball (3.44), but it is their bevy of lefthanders that makes the Dodgers the sharp play against the Phils.
Los Angeles has the best bullpen in the game, including a pair of southpaws in George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo that match up very well with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez. Closer Jonathan Broxton is the hardest pitcher to hit in MLB (.165 BA against), and he leads a unit that led the league in that category in 2009.
You only have to go back to the regular season to see how the Phillies’ run producers fared against the Dodgers. Los Angeles won the season series 4-3, and it held Howard to three hits – and 11 strikeouts – in 28 at-bats. Utley and Jimmy Rollins both batted under .200 against the Dodgers this season.
The Dodgers send veteran lefty Randy Wolf (0-0, 4.91 ERA in the playoffs) to the hill for Thursday night’s Game 1 (8:07 PM ET), while the Phils turn to Hamels (0-1, 7.20 ERA). Wolf isn’t your prototypical ace, but he matches up particularly well with Philadelphia. The crafty Wolf put up an MLB-low .417 OPS against versus lefthanded batters this season, making him the ideal starter for L.A. backers. If he gets in trouble, Joe Torre can always turn to his stellar ‘pen.
Neither team has officially announced their starters for the remainder of the series, but expect the Dodgers to go with southpaw Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 2.70 ERA) in Friday’s Game 2 (4:37 PM ET). With a .489 OPS against versus lefties this season, Kershaw was third in baseball behind Wolf in that category. He also has a 1.89 ERA at Dodger Stadium this year, and has a 2.16 ERA over his last three starts dating back to the regular season.
The Phillies could turn to Cliff Lee (1-0, 1.10 ERA) on three days rest in Game 2, but Charlie Manuel is more likely to save him for Sunday night’s Game 3 back at Citizens Bank Park. That means he has a decision between J.A. Happ (0-0, 9.00 ERA), Pedro Martinez, and Joe Blanton. Bank on Happ getting the call on Friday because of his 7-2 record and 2.20 ERA on the road this season, and Martinez getting his first start since September 30 in Game 4 next Monday.
Vicente Padilla (1-0, 0.00 ERA) should go for Los Angeles in Game 3, with Chad Billingsley getting his first outing of the postseason opposite Pedro in Game 4. If and when Billingsley toes the rubber, it’s a good spot to play Philadelphia against the moneyline. While Billingsley does have a 1.29 ERA against the Phils this season, the Dodgers have dropped the cash in seven of his last eight starts.
Bettors handicapping the total should prepare for a low-scoring series, even if Philly is 12-3-2 O/U in its last 17 games overall. In the seven meetings during the regular season, the losing team scored three or fewer runs in each game.
The 2009 NLCS will be a repeat of the 2008 NLCS...at least in terms of participants. Philadelphia rallied in the ninth to win Game 4 of their NLDS series in Colorado to earn their shot at the Dodgers who fell in five to the Phils last October. But this is a different Los Angeles team than a year ago, boasting the best bullpen in the major leagues and a starting rotation that matches up well against the deep Phillies lineup.
A quick look at World Series outright odds early on Tuesday morning revealed the Philadelphia Phillies are getting about as much respect as Taylor Swift at an awards ceremony.
Thing is, like the teenage songstress, the Phillies also have some hardware in their back pockets: Namely, the Commissioner’s Trophy for winning the Fall Classic last season.
Following Philadelphia’s 5-4 win over Colorado on Monday night, one sportsbook opened the Phils as +465 underdogs to repeat as World Series champions. That put Philly two spots behind the Dodgers, who come into the best-of-seven National League Championship Series priced at +345 to cash their first title since Kirk Gibson limped around the bases in 1988.
I understand the Phillies have the worst record of the remaining four clubs, but this is a team with Cliff Lee, the very underrated J.A. Happ, and last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP Cole Hamels in the rotation. That’s not to mention Philadelphia’s batting order is stacked.
Then I took a deeper look at the numbers, and realized instantly why oddsmakers are fading the Phillies for their NLCS matchup with the Dodgers.
NLCS: Philadelphia (+100) vs. LA Dodgers (-120)
The Dodgers’ pitching staff is going to be the difference when they clash with the Phillies in the NLCS beginning on Thursday night at Dodger Stadium.
It’s common knowledge L.A.’s arms finished the regular season with the best team ERA in baseball (3.44), but it is their bevy of lefthanders that makes the Dodgers the sharp play against the Phils.
Los Angeles has the best bullpen in the game, including a pair of southpaws in George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo that match up very well with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez. Closer Jonathan Broxton is the hardest pitcher to hit in MLB (.165 BA against), and he leads a unit that led the league in that category in 2009.
You only have to go back to the regular season to see how the Phillies’ run producers fared against the Dodgers. Los Angeles won the season series 4-3, and it held Howard to three hits – and 11 strikeouts – in 28 at-bats. Utley and Jimmy Rollins both batted under .200 against the Dodgers this season.
The Dodgers send veteran lefty Randy Wolf (0-0, 4.91 ERA in the playoffs) to the hill for Thursday night’s Game 1 (8:07 PM ET), while the Phils turn to Hamels (0-1, 7.20 ERA). Wolf isn’t your prototypical ace, but he matches up particularly well with Philadelphia. The crafty Wolf put up an MLB-low .417 OPS against versus lefthanded batters this season, making him the ideal starter for L.A. backers. If he gets in trouble, Joe Torre can always turn to his stellar ‘pen.
Neither team has officially announced their starters for the remainder of the series, but expect the Dodgers to go with southpaw Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 2.70 ERA) in Friday’s Game 2 (4:37 PM ET). With a .489 OPS against versus lefties this season, Kershaw was third in baseball behind Wolf in that category. He also has a 1.89 ERA at Dodger Stadium this year, and has a 2.16 ERA over his last three starts dating back to the regular season.
The Phillies could turn to Cliff Lee (1-0, 1.10 ERA) on three days rest in Game 2, but Charlie Manuel is more likely to save him for Sunday night’s Game 3 back at Citizens Bank Park. That means he has a decision between J.A. Happ (0-0, 9.00 ERA), Pedro Martinez, and Joe Blanton. Bank on Happ getting the call on Friday because of his 7-2 record and 2.20 ERA on the road this season, and Martinez getting his first start since September 30 in Game 4 next Monday.
Vicente Padilla (1-0, 0.00 ERA) should go for Los Angeles in Game 3, with Chad Billingsley getting his first outing of the postseason opposite Pedro in Game 4. If and when Billingsley toes the rubber, it’s a good spot to play Philadelphia against the moneyline. While Billingsley does have a 1.29 ERA against the Phils this season, the Dodgers have dropped the cash in seven of his last eight starts.
Bettors handicapping the total should prepare for a low-scoring series, even if Philly is 12-3-2 O/U in its last 17 games overall. In the seven meetings during the regular season, the losing team scored three or fewer runs in each game.