There's some days where the public actually seems to cap the games out correctly, and it looks like today is one of those days. While this may seem irresponsible on Vegas's part, we also have to remember that the public has to win occasionally in order for Vegas to continue to gain customers. The baseball lines today look very juicy to the public, and I think that while fading the public on totals and MLs yesterday worked very well (The Yankees game went under, the Dodgers game went over), today won't be the same. Let's look at the card:
Cardinals -106 (62% of public)
Kershaw is a young pitcher in his first home playoff game, and Wainwright, while young, is a playoff vet who has been raised by a team of winners for his entire career. Yesterday was the day for the Cards to lose, for the matchup was not in their favor. However, these next three games belong to St. Louis, as they are the superior team with proven leaders, solid pitching, and an incredibly talented lineup.
Angels -103 (58% of public)
Despite almost 60% of the public favoring the home squad here, they are still a home dog. They won't be for long, as the movement is in their favor. Lester's last two starts against the Angels have been shutouts, but Lackey has a much longer history of pitching well against the Sox. Furthermore, the Angels are a better hitting team both in the short run (L10 stats favor the Halos by about 30 BA points), and for the season. Angels take game one tonight.
Rockies/Phillies Over 9 (public % unknown)
I don't have the percentage at hand, but I know that most people are favoring an over in this game...as they should! Hamels and Cook both don't pitch well against their respective opponents, and 9 is not an incredibly high number to cover for two such heavy hitting teams. Yesterday went under, but today will be a different story.
I'll likely be back to fading the public tomorrow, but today is the day that the public money is actually the smart money!
Cardinals -106 (62% of public)
Kershaw is a young pitcher in his first home playoff game, and Wainwright, while young, is a playoff vet who has been raised by a team of winners for his entire career. Yesterday was the day for the Cards to lose, for the matchup was not in their favor. However, these next three games belong to St. Louis, as they are the superior team with proven leaders, solid pitching, and an incredibly talented lineup.
Angels -103 (58% of public)
Despite almost 60% of the public favoring the home squad here, they are still a home dog. They won't be for long, as the movement is in their favor. Lester's last two starts against the Angels have been shutouts, but Lackey has a much longer history of pitching well against the Sox. Furthermore, the Angels are a better hitting team both in the short run (L10 stats favor the Halos by about 30 BA points), and for the season. Angels take game one tonight.
Rockies/Phillies Over 9 (public % unknown)
I don't have the percentage at hand, but I know that most people are favoring an over in this game...as they should! Hamels and Cook both don't pitch well against their respective opponents, and 9 is not an incredibly high number to cover for two such heavy hitting teams. Yesterday went under, but today will be a different story.
I'll likely be back to fading the public tomorrow, but today is the day that the public money is actually the smart money!
