Twins chase the Tigers in Detroit
It's the closest thing to a pennant race going in the majors right now as the Minnesota Twins head to Detroit to meet Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers for a four-game set that could decide the AL Central.
Lo and behold, we have a playoff race after all.
You can hear the tumbleweeds rolling through Major League Baseball this September. There’s been almost no drama in the division or the Wild Card races, and goodness knows baseball needs all the drama it can get to keep people’s attention from drifting to the gridiron. But now we have something to care about – even if it is in the American League Central.
The Minnesota Twins (81-74, -0.71 units) have won 11 of 13 to creep within two games of the Detroit Tigers (83-72, +0.35 units) with seven games left to play. And their next four games are against each other.
If you’re looking for an easy scapegoat for Detroit’s conundrum, there’s this guy named Jarrod Washburn who’s used to getting kicked around. Washburn was the beneficiary of some excellent defense this year with the Seattle Mariners, stranding 79.5 percent of his baserunners and posting a 2.64 ERA (4.72 xFIP). The Mariners wisely dumped Washburn on Detroit at the trade deadline for two prospects; Washburn proceeded to post a 7.33 ERA (5.71 xFIP) in eight starts as a Tiger, leaving 65.1 percent of his runners on base. Same pitcher, same league, different defenses.
The Twins, meanwhile, made a better investment in Carl Pavano: one minor-league player to be named later (right-hander Yohan Pino, as it turned out). Pavano is known more for being injured for nearly all his four seasons with the New York Yankees, and for giving up Mark McGwire’s 70th home run in 1998 while pitching for the Montreal Expos. But Pavano also helped the Florida Marlins win the World Series in 2003. He’s the anti-Washburn in this scenario:
Pavano (Cleveland Indians): 5.37 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 64.3 percent LOB
Pavano (Minnesota Twins): 3.84 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 74.7 percent LOB
That’s what good defense will do for you. Pavano has the luxury of pitching to Joe Mauer, who in addition to his MLB-best .371 batting average (1.047 OPS) has a +22 FRAR, or Fielding Runs Above Replacement. Detroit’s Gerald Laird (.640 OPS) is a valuable defensive catcher as well with a +40 FRAR, but not nearly enough to make up for his weak bat. The under is 83-66-5 for the Tigers this year and 78-67-10 for the Twins.
The Twins lead the season series 9-5, with the total split at 6-6-2. Here are the projected starters for all four games.
Game 1: Nick Blackburn vs. Rick Porcello
Monday, Sep 28, 7:05 p.m. (ET)
The betting odds have Porcello (4.14 ERA, 4.56 xFIP) and the Tigers as –130 favorites with a total of nine runs. Porcello has been a fine rookie for Detroit, although he’s usually good for six innings tops and the Tigers bullpen is No. 22 in the majors with a 4.36 ERA. Blackburn (4.18 ERA, 4.85 ERA) is coming off seven shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox, and the Twins bullpen is ranked No. 12 with a 3.93 ERA.
Game 2: Brian Duensing vs. Justin Verlander
Tuesday, Sep 29, 7:05 p.m.
Duensing (3.33 ERA, 4.97 xFIP) has definitely benefited from good defense in eight starts as a rookie, raking in 4.15 units on a team record of 6-2 with the under at 5-3-1. Verlander (3.41 ERA, 3.40 xFIP) has a team record of 21-12, but only 3.92 units in earnings as the most recognizable (and chalky) pitcher on either club.
Game 3: Carl Pavano vs. Eddie Bonine
Wednesday, Sep 30, 7:05 p.m.
This would have been Washburn’s turn in the rotation, but he’s out for the regular season with a swollen left knee. Bonine (4.60 ERA, 4.49 xFIP) was a Rule 5 pickup from the San Diego Padres before the 2006 season and has played most of the past two years with the AAA Toledo Mud Hens. Detroit is 2-1 in his three starts, all three going under.
Game 4: Scott Baker vs. Nate Robertson
Thursday, Oct 1, 1:05 p.m.
Baker (4.48 ERA, 4.33 xFIP) has the Twins at 18-13 with a profit of 2.15 units. They’ve won seven of his last nine starts, although Baker didn’t pitch well in any of his three appearances against Detroit this year, coughing up 15 runs in 15 innings. Robertson (5.56 ERA, 5.40 xFIP) has been bothered by a pelvic inflammation, but was lifted from bullpen purgatory earlier this month because of Detroit’s thin rotation. The Tigers are 3-2 in his five starts for 1.31 units.
It's the closest thing to a pennant race going in the majors right now as the Minnesota Twins head to Detroit to meet Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers for a four-game set that could decide the AL Central.
Lo and behold, we have a playoff race after all.
You can hear the tumbleweeds rolling through Major League Baseball this September. There’s been almost no drama in the division or the Wild Card races, and goodness knows baseball needs all the drama it can get to keep people’s attention from drifting to the gridiron. But now we have something to care about – even if it is in the American League Central.
The Minnesota Twins (81-74, -0.71 units) have won 11 of 13 to creep within two games of the Detroit Tigers (83-72, +0.35 units) with seven games left to play. And their next four games are against each other.
If you’re looking for an easy scapegoat for Detroit’s conundrum, there’s this guy named Jarrod Washburn who’s used to getting kicked around. Washburn was the beneficiary of some excellent defense this year with the Seattle Mariners, stranding 79.5 percent of his baserunners and posting a 2.64 ERA (4.72 xFIP). The Mariners wisely dumped Washburn on Detroit at the trade deadline for two prospects; Washburn proceeded to post a 7.33 ERA (5.71 xFIP) in eight starts as a Tiger, leaving 65.1 percent of his runners on base. Same pitcher, same league, different defenses.
The Twins, meanwhile, made a better investment in Carl Pavano: one minor-league player to be named later (right-hander Yohan Pino, as it turned out). Pavano is known more for being injured for nearly all his four seasons with the New York Yankees, and for giving up Mark McGwire’s 70th home run in 1998 while pitching for the Montreal Expos. But Pavano also helped the Florida Marlins win the World Series in 2003. He’s the anti-Washburn in this scenario:
Pavano (Cleveland Indians): 5.37 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 64.3 percent LOB
Pavano (Minnesota Twins): 3.84 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 74.7 percent LOB
That’s what good defense will do for you. Pavano has the luxury of pitching to Joe Mauer, who in addition to his MLB-best .371 batting average (1.047 OPS) has a +22 FRAR, or Fielding Runs Above Replacement. Detroit’s Gerald Laird (.640 OPS) is a valuable defensive catcher as well with a +40 FRAR, but not nearly enough to make up for his weak bat. The under is 83-66-5 for the Tigers this year and 78-67-10 for the Twins.
The Twins lead the season series 9-5, with the total split at 6-6-2. Here are the projected starters for all four games.
Game 1: Nick Blackburn vs. Rick Porcello
Monday, Sep 28, 7:05 p.m. (ET)
The betting odds have Porcello (4.14 ERA, 4.56 xFIP) and the Tigers as –130 favorites with a total of nine runs. Porcello has been a fine rookie for Detroit, although he’s usually good for six innings tops and the Tigers bullpen is No. 22 in the majors with a 4.36 ERA. Blackburn (4.18 ERA, 4.85 ERA) is coming off seven shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox, and the Twins bullpen is ranked No. 12 with a 3.93 ERA.
Game 2: Brian Duensing vs. Justin Verlander
Tuesday, Sep 29, 7:05 p.m.
Duensing (3.33 ERA, 4.97 xFIP) has definitely benefited from good defense in eight starts as a rookie, raking in 4.15 units on a team record of 6-2 with the under at 5-3-1. Verlander (3.41 ERA, 3.40 xFIP) has a team record of 21-12, but only 3.92 units in earnings as the most recognizable (and chalky) pitcher on either club.
Game 3: Carl Pavano vs. Eddie Bonine
Wednesday, Sep 30, 7:05 p.m.
This would have been Washburn’s turn in the rotation, but he’s out for the regular season with a swollen left knee. Bonine (4.60 ERA, 4.49 xFIP) was a Rule 5 pickup from the San Diego Padres before the 2006 season and has played most of the past two years with the AAA Toledo Mud Hens. Detroit is 2-1 in his three starts, all three going under.
Game 4: Scott Baker vs. Nate Robertson
Thursday, Oct 1, 1:05 p.m.
Baker (4.48 ERA, 4.33 xFIP) has the Twins at 18-13 with a profit of 2.15 units. They’ve won seven of his last nine starts, although Baker didn’t pitch well in any of his three appearances against Detroit this year, coughing up 15 runs in 15 innings. Robertson (5.56 ERA, 5.40 xFIP) has been bothered by a pelvic inflammation, but was lifted from bullpen purgatory earlier this month because of Detroit’s thin rotation. The Tigers are 3-2 in his five starts for 1.31 units.