Rays in must-win series at New York Yankees
Rays in must-win series at New York Yankees
Everything worked right for the Tampa Bay Rays in '08 on their way to the AL Pennant. But lately everything has gone wrong and now the Yankees have a shot at ending Tampa's season with four games in the Bronx.
The last time we checked in on the Tampa Bay Rays was just last week, when they were five games behind the Boston Red Sox for the American League Wild Card. You can make that seven games. The Rays dropped two of three to Boston, then got swept three straight by the Detroit Tigers.
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over, but we’re getting pretty close. Tampa Bay (72-64, -4.90 units) is traveling to the Big Apple to play the red-hot New York Yankees (87-50, +10.35 units), who are 25-8 since Aug. 2 and the best team in the majors by both record and run differential (+136 runs, two more than the Los Angeles Dodgers).
This is a four-game set starting Monday with a day-night doubleheader. The Yankees lead the season series 6-5, including 4-1 in their last five meetings, but the Rays are 2-3 this year at new Yankee Stadium. The under is also 6-5 on the season and 4-1 in the past five.
Here are the projected starting assignments.
Game 1: C.C. Sabathia vs. Matt Garza
Monday, 1:05 p.m. (ET)
Garza (4.01 ERA, 4.59 xFIP) was the only Ray to beat the Red Sox last week. But it took him 120 pitches over 6.2 innings. The last time Garza threw that many was Aug. 4 against the same Sox, and he only managed 80 pitches in his next start, an 8-7 loss to the Los Angeles Angels (+126). New York has won seven in a row with Sabathia (3.48 ERA, 3.90 xFIP) on the mound, although he lost 6-2 to Tampa (+130) before going on his hot streak. That’s two wins out of two for the Rays versus Sabathia this season.
The Yankees were available between –170 and –185 at press time with a total of nine runs, but that was only at select books. Others had yet to post betting odds while they waited for confirmation on the starting assignments.
Game 2: Andy Sonnanstine vs. A.J. Burnett
Monday, 7:05 p.m. (ET)
It’s been a rough return to the majors for Sonnanstine (6.62 ERA, 4.90 ERA), who was recalled from AAA-Durham when the Rays dealt Scott Kazmir to the Angels. Sonnanstine was rocked for five runs (three earned) by the Red Sox over four innings in an 8-4 loss as a +143 home dog. Tampa has lost eight of his last 10 road starts. Burnett (4.29 ERA, 4.66 xFIP) has been getting roughed up this month, allowing 18 runs over his last 16.1 innings of work. The Yankees won two of his three starts against the Rays this year – both on the road.
Game 3: David Price vs. Chad Gaudin
Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. (ET)
This is the third spot start for Gaudin since he joined the Yankees bullpen in a trade with the San Diego Padres, where he posted a 5.13 ERA with a 4.26 xFIP as a regular part of their rotation. New York won his other two AL starts, although he didn’t get out of the fourth inning in either game. We trumpeted Price (4.75 ERA, 4.79 xFIP) last week, only to see Boston (+115) beat him 6-3. If you like zigzags, Price is WLWLWL in his past six appearances.
Game 4: Jeff Niemann vs. Joba Chamberlain
Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Niemann (3.67 ERA, 4.91 xFIP) has been very good in his first full year in the big leagues, piling up 8.95 units in profit on a team record of 16-9. Chamberlain (4.41 ERA, 4.71 xFIP) is in his first full year as a starter, and he was having a tremendous second half of the season before losing three of his last four games. He’s on an informal innings count to keep him fresh for the playoffs; with Gaudin pitching on Tuesday, the Yankees bullpen (although replenished with September call-ups) will likely be taxed.
Everything worked right for the Tampa Bay Rays in '08 on their way to the AL Pennant. But lately everything has gone wrong and now the Yankees have a shot at ending Tampa's season with four games in the Bronx.
The last time we checked in on the Tampa Bay Rays was just last week, when they were five games behind the Boston Red Sox for the American League Wild Card. You can make that seven games. The Rays dropped two of three to Boston, then got swept three straight by the Detroit Tigers.
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over, but we’re getting pretty close. Tampa Bay (72-64, -4.90 units) is traveling to the Big Apple to play the red-hot New York Yankees (87-50, +10.35 units), who are 25-8 since Aug. 2 and the best team in the majors by both record and run differential (+136 runs, two more than the Los Angeles Dodgers).
This is a four-game set starting Monday with a day-night doubleheader. The Yankees lead the season series 6-5, including 4-1 in their last five meetings, but the Rays are 2-3 this year at new Yankee Stadium. The under is also 6-5 on the season and 4-1 in the past five.
Here are the projected starting assignments.
Game 1: C.C. Sabathia vs. Matt Garza
Monday, 1:05 p.m. (ET)
Garza (4.01 ERA, 4.59 xFIP) was the only Ray to beat the Red Sox last week. But it took him 120 pitches over 6.2 innings. The last time Garza threw that many was Aug. 4 against the same Sox, and he only managed 80 pitches in his next start, an 8-7 loss to the Los Angeles Angels (+126). New York has won seven in a row with Sabathia (3.48 ERA, 3.90 xFIP) on the mound, although he lost 6-2 to Tampa (+130) before going on his hot streak. That’s two wins out of two for the Rays versus Sabathia this season.
The Yankees were available between –170 and –185 at press time with a total of nine runs, but that was only at select books. Others had yet to post betting odds while they waited for confirmation on the starting assignments.
Game 2: Andy Sonnanstine vs. A.J. Burnett
Monday, 7:05 p.m. (ET)
It’s been a rough return to the majors for Sonnanstine (6.62 ERA, 4.90 ERA), who was recalled from AAA-Durham when the Rays dealt Scott Kazmir to the Angels. Sonnanstine was rocked for five runs (three earned) by the Red Sox over four innings in an 8-4 loss as a +143 home dog. Tampa has lost eight of his last 10 road starts. Burnett (4.29 ERA, 4.66 xFIP) has been getting roughed up this month, allowing 18 runs over his last 16.1 innings of work. The Yankees won two of his three starts against the Rays this year – both on the road.
Game 3: David Price vs. Chad Gaudin
Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. (ET)
This is the third spot start for Gaudin since he joined the Yankees bullpen in a trade with the San Diego Padres, where he posted a 5.13 ERA with a 4.26 xFIP as a regular part of their rotation. New York won his other two AL starts, although he didn’t get out of the fourth inning in either game. We trumpeted Price (4.75 ERA, 4.79 xFIP) last week, only to see Boston (+115) beat him 6-3. If you like zigzags, Price is WLWLWL in his past six appearances.
Game 4: Jeff Niemann vs. Joba Chamberlain
Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Niemann (3.67 ERA, 4.91 xFIP) has been very good in his first full year in the big leagues, piling up 8.95 units in profit on a team record of 16-9. Chamberlain (4.41 ERA, 4.71 xFIP) is in his first full year as a starter, and he was having a tremendous second half of the season before losing three of his last four games. He’s on an informal innings count to keep him fresh for the playoffs; with Gaudin pitching on Tuesday, the Yankees bullpen (although replenished with September call-ups) will likely be taxed.
