MLB Picks - Wednesday, 6/15/22

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Sides Wednesday

Twins -130
Brewers -117


YTD: 136-133-6, -2.76


All plays are Listed Pitchers unless ACTION is stated

[jjgold]

Good day yesterday can you follow it up today is the bigger question

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Pick Addition

3 MLB Plays Wednesday

Reds +106
Twins -130
Brewers -117

[Brock Landers]

Milwaukee 1-9 in last 10.

That's a team to lay juice with

[LT Profits]

Milwaukee 1-9 in last 10.

That's a team to lay juice with

You should know by now streaks mean nothing to me as I look at each game in a vacuum. I WILL say that the 1-9 run actually helps give the Brewers value for what the model has as a pitching mismatch.

[LT Profits]

2 More MLB Pick Additions

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Reds +106
Twins -130
Orioles / Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 -113
Orioles / Blue Jays UNDER 5 -105 (5 innings)
Brewers -117

[LT Profits]

You should know by now streaks mean nothing to me as I look at each game in a vacuum. I WILL say that the 1-9 run actually helps give the Brewers value for what the model has as a pitching mismatch.

OH and I am now seeing Brewers -140, so that is mad +EV long term win or lose.

[LT Profits]

OH and I am now seeing Brewers -140, so that is mad +EV long term win or lose.

OOPS! Scratch this, I was looking at my other morning play Minnesota at -140, Brewers currently -129. Still decent EV.

[stevex]

Have you ever thought about reshaping your model to make use of streaks with value? I don’t know the history but it seems, especially in baseball, when teams go on streaks…they go on streaks for a good span of games. I’m not saying take the Yankees at -250 if they’ve won 8 in a row.

[Brock Landers]

You should know by now streaks mean nothing to me as I look at each game in a vacuum. I WILL say that the 1-9 run actually helps give the Brewers value for what the model has as a pitching mismatch.

I'll take the best team in the NL as a home dog

[LT Profits]

Have you ever thought about reshaping your model to make use of streaks with value? I don’t know the history but it seems, especially in baseball, when teams go on streaks…they go on streaks for a good span of games. I’m not saying take the Yankees at -250 if they’ve won 8 in a row.

Streaks are meaningless to me because I model at the player level. Import stats and model spits out price, then I compare to actual lines. Though if you think about it, legit hot streaks should be fueled by legit stats, so if that is the case, the improved stats should organically adjust model price over time. So it can go either way, legit hot streaks will adjust the model whereas "lucky" hot streaks where the underlying stats have not varied much can lead to overvalued teams.

[LT Profits]

I'll take the best team in the NL as a home dog

That logic totally ignores the pitching mismatch, which is the primary reason for the line.

[jolyolyolyman]

Hey Steve, ignore what LT says about streaks in baseball. They do matter and they are very real. Phillies and Angels if you need recent examples. Ride them or don’t play the game! LT will show us an arrogant emoji with a tongue sticking about how he won a half unit but if your trying to actually win money, ride streaks in baseball. Can’t believe all the nonsense LT gets away with preaching to you guys. He literally bets on bad teams.

[LT Profits]

Hey Steve, ignore what LT says about streaks in baseball. They do matter and they are very real. Phillies and Angels if you need recent examples. Ride them or don’t play the game! LT will show us an arrogant emoji with a tongue sticking about how he won a half unit but if your trying to actually win money, ride streaks in baseball. Can’t believe all the nonsense LT gets away with preaching to you guys. He literally bets on bad teams.

And when was the last time I had a losing MLB season? I will wait while you look it up.

[stake1]

anybody betting the Mets with Peterson? doesn’t know anything about the Mets. yup, they won his last two starts. But Buck was growing tired of the same poor outings. Icing on peterson’s shit cake tonite

[spippen]

David Peterson is a trash pitcher. Good call.

[stake1]

Milwaukee 1-9 in last 10.

That's a team to lay juice with