The King's Strongest Plays EVER at SBR!!!!

Pick'nParlays · 09-02-09, 03:13 AM

gl with these plays

Mikail · 09-02-09, 03:16 AM

The King speaks the truth!

crokkettt · 09-02-09, 03:19 AM

i´m with you on the ML. just one question, should i pick right now or wait if the line moves, like u said, in our direction?

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 03:46 AM

I'm thinking it should keep getting better for us Twins backers.. Word on the streets is these JM plays are moving lines.. I just don't see how the Twins can be +140 and the total only be (8.5)??

crokkettt · 09-02-09, 03:53 AM

at bet365 the line moved from 2.45 to 2.43 ..... maybe jump on right now

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 03:57 AM

I think you should play all 3 Crockett.. Would hate to see you play just the ML and lose 9-8 ..if Buerhle gives up 5-6 as predicted you could easily win all 3..

seanjohn007 · 09-02-09, 04:02 AM

i would deff wait to take any minny bets until right before game time if possible. last time morrison had a C bet the line moved someting like 60 cents

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by crokkettt

at bet365 the line moved from 2.45 to 2.43 ..... maybe jump on right now

I don't think anyone will say that's a bad bet.. I don't follow these JM plays but if he told me to put a bunch on the Sox I would not feel comfortable about it..

Razz_Donkey · 09-02-09, 04:24 AM

This is an interesting spot Enog, the Sox always struggle in Minny, and the Twins are closing the gap with the Tigers. The Sox on the other hand appear to have thrown in the towel for the season. I think these plays are well thought out and + EV. Best of luck to you and your followers.

IcE · 09-02-09, 07:19 AM

JM be damned

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 12:01 PM

9 minutes till Twins hit parade begins..

Get on the twins team total OVER!!

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 12:08 PM

U can get over 3.5 TT at most places. I hammered it myself

crokkettt · 09-02-09, 12:09 PM

stream would be nice...

let´s get it

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 12:26 PM

Single.. Single.. Double play.. Lineout to first...

Only bad luck like this can stop these plays..

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 12:31 PM

Not bad luck King, poor decision-making.

Sometimes I think managers pander too much to a player's ego. This seems to happen more in baseball than in any other sport (manager's not pulling starting pitchers, letting batters swing away). I don't care that it's Joe Mauer batting, you get two guys on 1st and 2nd, why not lay down a bunt and advance both runners? You sacrifice an out but you avoid a double play for the next at bat you now have two runners in scoring position. Plus, there's a chance that Mauer gets on as well as he has decent speed.

Instead, he grounds into a DP that subsequently kills the inning.

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 12:41 PM

2 innings.. 3 hits and 2 lineouts..

0 runs... Not liking this.. Buerhle with 34 pitches already.. Better get to him soon..

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 12:43 PM

What's worse is that Gomez and Young are both out of Minny's lineup. They are the two Twins with the best numbers vs. Buerhle... Makes no sense.

Both hit over .400 off Buerhle in 20+ appearances.

Why is Punto in when Gomez and Young hit .400 off Buerhle ... I could honestly manage a team better than half these jackasses in the majors.

jcygts6 · 09-02-09, 12:47 PM

Don't worry King! Twins will show up later in the game and

MINNESOTA WINS THIS!

yisman · 09-02-09, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

Not bad luck King, poor decision-making.

Sometimes I think managers pander too much to a player's ego. This seems to happen more in baseball than in any other sport (manager's not pulling starting pitchers, letting batters swing away). I don't care that it's Joe Mauer batting, you get two guys on 1st and 2nd, why not lay down a bunt and advance both runners? You sacrifice an out but you avoid a double play for the next at bat you now have two runners in scoring position. Plus, there's a chance that Mauer gets on as well as he has decent speed.

You do not bunt with Joe Mauer at the plate. Period.

Yes, a double play could happen, but Mauer is your best hitter by far.

The only time you could even consider this would be if it was the 9th inning down a run.

I don't even know if Mauer practices bunting.

Mikail · 09-02-09, 12:49 PM

Twins will likely win, but the over is looking a little short.

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 12:50 PM

2 innings.. 2 lineouts with runners in scoring position.. Nothing you can do about that panekkk.. That's baseball..

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 12:52 PM

Granted he is one of the best hitters in the game, but from a strategic standpoint I wonder if there's more value in bunting them along. In fact, I would love to see the probabilities of scoring a run with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out vs. the probabilities of scoring a run with runners on 1st and 2nd with 0 out. I would be willing to bet that probabilities favour the former.

yisman · 09-02-09, 12:55 PM

In general? Probably. With Joe Mauer at the plate? Probability indicates you more often will score runs by letting Mauer hit.

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 12:55 PM

Here you go, courtesy of Tom Tango:

http://www.tangotiger.net/runscreated.html

Chance of scoring from 2nd base with 0 outs is .61
Chance of scoring from 3rd base with 1 out is .68

Chance of scoring from 1st base with 0 outs is .38
Chance of scoring from 2nd base with 1 out is .41

Baseball is a numbers game. Take the numbers.

yisman · 09-02-09, 12:58 PM

As I said, in general, yes, with Joe Mauer batting, no.

He's one of the top five hitters in baseball.

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 12:58 PM

I agree with you yisman, it's a tough call with Mauer at the plate but still ... A good manager should be well aware of statistics. I guarantee that almost none of them are. Good managing obviously takes great "gut" insticts, but having a good handle of stats would probably go a long way.

Anyway I do agree with you ... I'm just complaining cuz the bastard grounded into a double play

lol

Scoring an early run can really mess up a pitcher's game. Buerhle seems to have found his groove now and his numbers against most of these Twins batters are actually very good considering Gomez and Young are out.

Oh yah, and Mauer hits .200 off of Buerhle in 31 AB's (2 for 15 last 2 years) ... Again, a good manager should know that.

Panekkkk · 09-02-09, 01:08 PM

Funny cuz the White Sox just did the same thing with Ramirez (ground into DP with 0 outs; inning killed)!

Guess it comes around. I know managers don't consider a move like that until the 7th or 8th but it's just amateur to ignore numbers in this game. Problem is, baseball is a game of old farts behind the bench. These guys wear adult diapers and most have no clue what they're doing, let alone what day it is, and their impact on the game -- which could be significant -- is marginal.

Ah well, I'm done ranting. I have faith the Twinkies will put some runs late. They just need to apply a little pressure (and not get picked off at first *cough Span *cough).

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 01:10 PM

I feel like the biggest square..hopefully Twins will atleast win...

yisman · 09-02-09, 01:13 PM

Well, if you're Fishhead's protégé, what do you expect?

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 01:15 PM

Yeah, I need a new mentor..

head_strong · 09-02-09, 01:31 PM

....

jcygts6 · 09-02-09, 01:37 PM

don't worry twins have a 2-0 lead, we should be golden

yisman · 09-02-09, 01:47 PM

The problem is that the Twins play was the weakest of the three.

"Twins/Sox Over (8.5) -120 (strongest play ever)

Twins Over Team total (4) pro. (very strong)"

Those plays are looking shaky

Enogsiwon · 09-02-09, 01:56 PM

Yeah.. Not looking good, trust me it hurts..

Fishhead is fired..