MLB Picks - Monday, 4/25/22

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Monday

Red Sox +111
Mets -152


YTD: 51-35-3, +18.11

[LT Profits]

Yes, -152 is most I have ever laid on MLB game in my 16 years at SBR, previous high was -150

[Rich Boy]

Any thoughts on Mets -1 -122?

[pilebuck13]

Jesus I never thought I’d see the day LT…. What win percentage do you have them at?

[jjgold]

Forget run lines a bookmakers dream

[LT Profits]

Jesus I never thought I’d see the day LT…. What win percentage do you have them at?

66% (-194)

-152 sounds kind of trappish, but I have Mikolas individually and Cardinals as a team both overrated, so we shall see.

[LT Profits]

Any thoughts on Mets -1 -122?

Given Post #6, I prefer the straight ML.

[KVB]

LT what do you think about the Giants today?

+175 is getting pretty generous out there.

[Rich Boy]

Given Post #6, I prefer the straight ML.

On it

[LT Profits]

LT what do you think about the Giants today?

+175 is getting pretty generous out there.

Disagree as I have Burnes 68% (-213)

This is listing Bullpen Day for Giants

[slayer14]

mets total looks to low around 7 considering sherzer has been getting lit up

[KVB]

Disagree as I have Burnes 68% (-213)

This is listing Bullpen Day for Giants

Yeah, quite a bit of the market is Milwaukee, if only we could get the favorite to trad at -213.

I would find value on the dog in the contrarian model, I'm sure.

Personally, I forecast a much closer game here than many.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Pick Addition

3 MLB Plays Monday

Rockies / Phillies UNDER 8.5 -108
Red Sox +111
Mets -152

[Rich Boy]

LT question, what do you factor after your first post to add plays?

[KVB]

LT question, what do you factor after your first post to add plays?

Usually it's because the market moved into a spot that shows enough value to trigger plays.

[KVB]

I took the UNDER in Texas.

Took 9 at -105 early, then 8.5 at -105, and then again 8 at (-104 and -103).

I could have filled the position at 8.5 and 9 for -115 type prices, could have done that, mathematically, no problem to a certain price limit.

But I played the market and points to the limit of my edge a different way. I allowed points to fall to pay a cheaper price. I knew which way this line would move, or better to say I had an idea of which way and I could measure a high degree of statistical signifcance as far as confidence in that line movment prediction, so made an investment plan.

For LT, it will be more like he's passing on a close one and then it moves into his favor. This is the most common reason for us to trigger a bet.

Regardless, never forget that the market can know about this effect on bettors and the originators and bookmakers will exploit these principles to generate the action they need or want when they need or want it.

[KVB]

Mathematically, depending on the edge you are working with, those two methods of market entry can be virtually the same.

Truthfully, with the sample above, if you can get a good price initially, it will over time result in more profit. Kind of like buying a stock all at once for long term, or nipping away a at it. Research shows it can be better just to enter the market.

I am working on a way to overcome that difference with the pricing I seek.

One of the principles at work here and that I am experimenting with is that as the books raise their prices, they add in vigorish. Further, some books will exploit this even more, like in the LIVE markets, at opportune times.

Not much vig added between -108 and -113, but there are times where the difference is only the vig.

Think about it.

[dirtycash66]

Mets & 76er ML parlay is free money. Pays about even. You're welcome.

[LT Profits]

LT question, what do you factor after your first post to add plays?

Combo of line movement and lineup info.

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Pick Addition

4 MLB Plays Monday

Rockies / Phillies UNDER 8.5 -108
Red Sox +111
Red Sox / Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 -110 (ACTION)
Mets -152

[Rich Boy]

Wow how did you snag -110

Pinny offering -126, still good?

[KVB]

Combo of line movement and lineup info.

And of course, the ever floating variable of lineup changes.

It's bleeding into the NBA, big time.

[takethepnts]

Wow how did you snag -110

Pinny offering -126, still good?

Yep I see under 8.0 @ -110 but 8.5 is around 130 on 365 .

[pavyracer]

Wow how did you snag -110

Pinny offering -126, still good?

must be a typo. the line for that price is 8.

[Rich Boy]

Well I took 8.5 -126

[takethepnts]

Well I took 8.5 -126

Yes but not all of us are RICH boys tho 😉

[LT Profits]

Wow how did you snag -110

Pinny offering -126, still good?

At 8.5 -126, would sell to Under 8

[LT Profits]

I double checked and yes Under 8.5 -110 was accepted at 3:43pm ET. Currently Under at 8 -103.

Sorry I moved the line so much

[Rich Boy]

How much you laying on these totals jeez give the rest of us a chance loll

[LT Profits]

How much you laying on these totals jeez give the rest of us a chance loll

If that was the case, all my Under bets would be moving This was just a case of lucky timing for me.

[pavyracer]

LT moved the line by 0.5 run.

[Rich Boy]

Books are on SBR waiting for LTs picks, moving lines seconds after

[TheLock]

I wanted to play Cardinals but got distracted

[italianbandit]

Wow, this thread feels like SBR 2010. Good luck all.

[TheLock]

Arenado error. 2-1 Cardinals 2 outs in the 9th