When lines change away from the dog and toward the favorite from the opening line

**QuantumLeap** · 08-21-21, 11:50 AM

I actually started a similar thread here:

When books show love for the dogs - Sportsbook Review Forum

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3670702-when-books-show-love-dogs.html

MLB handicapping, baseball betting, picks, matchups and the latests game results in the MLB forum.

But I started out taking the wrong side and then switching up my tactics. The title of the thread was wrong as well.

So I didn't want people to get confused as to what was going on. This new thread hopefully clears things up and keeps things consistent.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-21-21, 11:56 AM

SF -105 (OAK went from +120 to -103)

CLE -126 (LAA went from +130 to +116)

HOU -144 (SEA went from +161 to +132)

Possibly more later.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-21-21, 03:16 PM

ATL -164 (BAL went from +186 to +151)

COL -138 (ARI went from +152 to +127)

SD -149 (PHI went from +170 to +137)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-21-21, 11:33 PM

W) SF -105, +0.95

W) CLE -126, +0.79

W) HOU -144, +0.69

W) ATL -164, +0.61

W) COL -138, +0.72

W) SD -149, +0.67

Today: 6-0, +4.43

YTD: 6-0, +4.43

**QuantumLeap** · 08-22-21, 11:27 AM

Sun, Aug 22

I'm going to make a special exception for ATL. Their opponent BAL, opened at +156 and went down to +138 which fit the criteria then. However, since then they've gone up to +149 which means they are not within the 10-point movement rule. I will still go with ATL and chalk it up to fitting the 10 points at one time.

ATL -162
(BAL went from +156 to +139 and is now at +148)

CIN -124
(MIA went from +150 to +115)

LAD -176
(NYM went from +188 to +161)

CLE in the late game may be a choice if the line keeps moving like it has. Currently it hasn't passed the 10-point movement rule.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-22-21, 04:00 PM

One more for Sunday:

CLE -114 (LAA went from +121 to +106)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-22-21, 09:03 PM

W) ATL -162, +0.62

W) CIN -124, +0.81

L) LAD -176, -1.00

W) CLE -114, +0.88

Today: 3-1, +1.31

YTD: 9-1, +5.74

**QuantumLeap** · 08-23-21, 06:01 PM

I have an idea as to why these may be working. This is the time of the year for the pennant races with just less than 40 games to be played. The favorites are going to be putting forth an extra effort during this time and the books want bettors off the favorites. So they have this line movement away from the favorites and people may wonder if there's a reason the dog is getting a worse line. It looks like a trap, right?

Well all of my previous picks have been for winning teams. What happens when a losing team is the favorite and the line gets better for them? Is it the same principle? Well I'm going to apply the line movement to losing teams as well and we'll see if it works.

Mon, Aug 23

PIT -111 (ARI went from +116 to +103)

CWS +107 (Tor went from +106 to -110)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-23-21, 09:49 PM

W) PIT -111, +0.90

L) CWS +107, -1.00

Today: 1-1, -0.10

YTD: 10-2, +5.64

I was thinking about taking the Cubs tonight too but the line movement was only 9 points. Maybe something to take into consideration in the future.

**PharaohUB** · 08-23-21, 09:58 PM

Nice 👍

**QuantumLeap** · 08-23-21, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by PharaohUB

Nice 

Thanks.

Cubs come back to win.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-24-21, 05:50 PM

Tue, Aug 24

LAA -122
(BAL went from +129 to +113)

That's it for now! Looking at taking LAD later but will have to see the line change closer to game time.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-24-21, 07:43 PM

I just wanted to point out that ARI went from +101 to -112 but there was no way I was going to take PIT against a lefty, especially Bumgarner .We'll see how that turns out. I won't count it in my record of course since I didn't post it before gametime.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-24-21, 08:23 PM

Waited too long for this one. Went from -134 to -141 about 15 minutes ago. Oh well.

LAD -141
(SD went from +143 to +123.)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-24-21, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

I just wanted to point out that ARI went from +101 to -112 but there was no way I was going to take PIT against a lefty, especially Bumgarner .We'll see how that turns out. I won't count it in my record of course since I didn't post it before gametime.

PIT wins.

Another one that fit this system was WAS. MIA went from +105 to -109.

Can't count either one.
Cheering this Dodger win on.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-25-21, 12:36 AM

W) LAA -122, +0.82

W) LAD -144, +0.69

Today: 2-0, +1.51

YTD: 12-2, +7.25

**k310** · 08-25-21, 12:59 AM

Good stuff QL ! Keep it rolling !

**QuantumLeap** · 08-25-21, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by k310

Good stuff QL ! Keep it rolling !

Thanks k310. Check out my previous thread linked in Post #2 in the thread. Favorites went 14-2 in that thread. The only problem is that I chose dogs in the first 7 picks so I decided to start this thread so people wouldn't get confused.

Favorites are 26-4 using this system in the 2 threads.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-25-21, 10:21 AM

Wed, Aug 25

STL -120
(DET has gone from +130 to +111)

DET has won 3 out of their last 4 and their pitcher Skubal has pitched well his last few starts and Lester for STL has been a mess a few times lately.

STL has lost 5 out of their last 7. So bettors are going to ask why STL is favored here and they see the line go toward DET so they think sharp money is on DET. Nope. Take STL.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-25-21, 04:56 PM

Cards come through for us in the early game. I wonder how the linesmaker knew Lester would do well against the Tigers in this game?

LAA -201
(BAL went from as high as +212 and now to +183.)
Orioles have lost 19 in a row an Ohtani is pitching for the Angels. The books have to get some money on BAL. What better way to do it than to cause the line to go down like this? It will get bettors thinking the book knows something.

BOS -154
(MIN went from +158 to +141.)

WAS -103
(MIA went from +106 to -107.)

MIL -154
(CIN went from +160 to +142.)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-25-21, 10:25 PM

W) STL -120, +0.83

L) LAA -201, -1.00

L) BOS -154, -1.00

L) WAS -103, -1.00

W) MIL -154, +0.65

Today: 2-3, -1.52

YTD: 14-5, +5.73

First losing day.

Boston almost came back. They tied it up in the 9th and had a man on 3rd but couldn't come through.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-26-21, 12:54 PM

Thu, Aug 26

I wasn't going to post the Angels pick since the line moved almost 40 points for the Orioles.

MIL +100
(CIN went from +104 to -107.)

More later.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-26-21, 04:16 PM

PHI -142
(ARI went from +142 to +131)

CLE -149
(TEX went from +157 to +137)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-26-21, 05:55 PM

SF -112
(NYM went from +116 to +102.)

LAD -136
(SD went from +134 to +121.)

**ExposingLines247** · 08-26-21, 06:07 PM

This has been a great read and interesting angle, keep it up, good luck

**QuantumLeap** · 08-26-21, 11:19 PM

Originally posted by ExposingLines247

This has been a great read and interesting angle, keep it up, good luck

Thanks. I thought it might be reversing itself last night but the Phils were 1 run away from making it 4-1 tonight.

L) MIL +100, -1.00

L) PHI -142, -1.00

W) CLE -149, +0.67

W) SF -112, +0.89

W) LAD -136, +0.74

Today: 3-2, +0.30

YTD: 17-7, +6.03

**QuantumLeap** · 08-27-21, 06:03 PM

CIN -130
(MIA has gone from +134 to +120.)
Miley (10-4) on the mound for the Reds although he has been spotty on the road.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-27-21, 06:32 PM

I know this one is juice but I think it's a good investment. Texas has lost all 9 games they've played in Houston this season.

HOU -181
(TEX went from +181 to +166.)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-27-21, 07:08 PM

One last one:

MIL -125
(MIN went from +125 to +116.)
Still betting it even though it was only 9 points in change of price. Close enough!)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-27-21, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

I know this one is juice but I think it's a good investment. Texas has lost all 9 games they've played in Houston this season.

HOU -181
(TEX went from +181 to +166.)

My mistake. This game is being played in Arlington.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-27-21, 10:37 PM

W) CIN -130, +0.77

W) HOU -181, +0.55

L) MIL -125, -1.00

Today: 2-1, +0.32

YTD: 19-8, +6.35

**QuantumLeap** · 08-28-21, 02:55 PM

I think I'm going to go to 32 games. I made 18 picks in my other thread so that will make an even 50.

Sat, Aug 28

BOS -131
(CLE went from +139 to +121.)

NYY +116
(OAK went from +105 to -126.)
I sure don't understand this line movement. Yanks have won their last 13. Oak has lost their last 6. Maybe they are thinking it's going to be hard for the Yanks to win all games in this series.

PHI -182
(ARI went from +190 to +166.)

**QuantumLeap** · 08-28-21, 03:34 PM

CIN -102
(MIA went from +105 to -106.)
This is a great price for Gutierrez pitching for the Reds. He's been "Red"-hot in his last few outings. Trap play.

**QuantumLeap** · 08-28-21, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by QuantumLeap

I think I'm going to go to 32 games. I made 18 picks in my other thread so that will make an even 50.

Sat, Aug 28

BOS -131
(CLE went from +139 to +121.)

NYY +116
(OAK went from +105 to -126.)
I sure don't understand this line movement. Yanks have won their last 13. Oak has lost their last 6. Maybe they are thinking it's going to be hard for the Yanks to win all games in this series.

PHI -182
(ARI went from +190 to +166.)

I can't tell you how many times I've picked a team on a streak only to lose as the Yankees have here. I usually fade a losing team with more than 10 losses in a row but recently have been bit betting against the Twins, Cubs and Orioles this season.