When books show love for the dogs

[QuantumLeap]

I've been noticing a trend lately. It's line movement toward the underdogs and has been rather successful at least recently. I have tried to use line movement as a way to predict the outcome of a game but have failed at it so take that into consideration.

Of course the favorites are going to get the love from the linesmakers. People just throw money at favorites and why not? How many of us know when an underdog has a better chance of beating the favorite? But we sure seem to know that the favorite is going to win, don't we?

So when the line moves on the underdog to give a worse line for that team it makes me wonder. So in this thread I'm going to concentrate on teams that start as underdogs and the line moves away from them. Now the line for large underdogs, such as +200 or more, can move a lot for little reason so I'm going to try to stay under +175.

I'm going to be using Pinnacle numbers for the opening and current lines.

[QuantumLeap]

Here we have KC starting out at +105 and going to -113. It doesn't seem like a lot, I know, but it's still taking a team that is 2-5 in its last 7 from a dog to a favorite and making a team that is 6-1 in its last 7 and making them a dog. Doesn't pass the smell test.

That failure to pass the smell test is due in large part to the dumpster fire that is Jon Lester who is a shadow of his former self. Not that his opponent Brad Keller is an ace but the common denominator I'm seeing in these dog line changes is a pitcher on the other side who has recent bad outings.

Since this is a pitcher angle I'm taking the 1st 5 innings here.

KC -127 1st 5

[QuantumLeap]

The next one is also based upon a pitcher with a bad outing. That pitcher is the Blue Jays' Hyun Jin Ryu who gave up 7 earned runs in his last outing against the Red Sox. Are these pitchers hurt or are they tiring at the end of the season? I don't know. We'll see if this angle has a factor in giving the dog a worse line.

The Jays are going up against the Mariners in Seattle. The Mariners have won 4 out of their last 5, all at home so why did they start out at +152 underdogs? They start Yusei Kikuchi who has had bad streaks in the past but has pitched well recently.

Is this line movement a case of recent pitcher performance? Since it seems to be a pitcher angle I'm going with the 1st 5.

Seattle +120 (1st 5)

[QuantumLeap]

L) KC

L) Seattle

Today: 0-2

YTD: 0-2

I can't catch a break. Both of these should have been a push. There was a throwing error from 3rd to 1st base by KC in the top of the 5th and then a fielding error on what should have been an easy scoop.

For Seattle, 2 outfielders collided and dropped the ball. The next batter hits into a routing grunder for what should have been the 3rd out except for the dropped ball in the outfield so the runner scores.

I'll try again on Sunday.

[QuantumLeap]

Sorry for the late post.

Washinton is 1-9 in their last 10. Atlanta is 8-2 in their last 10. Line seems fishy and has gone from +148 to +137 for the Nats.

Washington +137

[QuantumLeap]

Same for Cubs. This will be a good place holder to see if the books are making these moves false moves to try to get more money on the dog. Cubs are 0-10 last 10. Miami has a pitcher who is making his first start.

I can't take the Cubs in this one but I'm going to watch the result.

[QuantumLeap]

Seattle came back last night so if I would have taken the full game instead of the 1st 5 it would have been a winner. Oh well.

Going with the Mariners again today, this time for the full game.

Seattle +103

[QuantumLeap]

The line moved from +179 to +167 for the Rockies. That's not really that much and I thought it could be due to the Rockies' upset win last night giving people more confidence in them.

But we have another pitcher for the favorites having a recent bad pitching streak. Wood for the Giants has a 9-3 record but has given up at least 4 unearned runs in each of his last 3 starts.

Since the Rockies have such a poor bullpen I'm going with 1st 5 here:

Colorado +144 1st 5

I'm also taking the over 4 in the 1st 5 but that won't count in my record in this thread.

[44 Mag]

I guess they are favorites for a reason. Maybe you just hit the wrong couple days. BOL in the future, I don't disagree with your theory. But remember, it's only "Juice" if they lose.

[QuantumLeap]

I guess they are favorites for a reason. Maybe you just hit the wrong couple days. BOL in the future, I don't disagree with your theory. But remember, it's only "Juice" if they lose.

Thanks.

A couple of these games were pretty close. I'm thinking I need to look for more line movement in the future. If I see any I'll post it here.

[QuantumLeap]

I have one more. Caution: none of these have worked so far so plan accordingly.

Detroit opened as +133 underdogs and went to +116. Ohtani pitching for the Angels so this line should be pushing toward the Angels as a bigger favorite with the fan favorite pitching.

[QuantumLeap]

I have one more. Caution: none of these have worked so far so plan accordingly.

Detroit opened as +133 underdogs and went to +116. Ohtani pitching for the Angels so this line should be pushing toward the Angels as a bigger favorite with the fan favorite pitching.

So before this one, the system went 0-5. Detroit lost so this system goes 0-6. When life gives you lemons, make lemonade.

From now on, let's just fade line movement and go with the team that is getting better odds! The line change has to be at least 10 points.

[QuantumLeap]

OK, we're going to do this in reverse today:

Thu, Aug 19

LAA -110 (Det went from +116 to +102)

SEA -131 (Tex went from +151 to +121)

HOU -160 (KC went from +164 to +147)

[QuantumLeap]

In my original post I mentioned how I'm going to stay with dogs under +200. But I really think there's one that has moved enough to warrant a bet.

NYY -234 (MIN went from +238 to +210)

[QuantumLeap]

LAA -110, +0.91

SEA -131, +0.76

HOU -160, +0.63

NYY -234, +0.43

Today: 4-0!!

YTD before 8/19: 0-6, -6 units

YTD 8/19: 4-0, +2.73

[MinnesotaFats]

Fade the public!

[QuantumLeap]

Fade the public!

Yes!

[QuantumLeap]

I missed one earlier today. In the KC/Cubs game the line went from +105 to -105 for the Cubs, just like in the 1st pick in this thread. That would mean to take KC and of course KC wins. Can't count that one though.

Fri, Aug 20

CIN -176 (Mia went from +184 to +163)

MIL -179 (WSH went from +175 to +163)

HOU -179 (SEA went from +180 to +163)

[QuantumLeap]

OAK +100 (SF went from +100 to -108)

[QuantumLeap]

Well, we have our first "loss" in this thread. I put that word in quotes because I chose 6 wrong sides in a row to start. When I started betting against my original system it went 4-0 the next day and 3-1 today.

W) CIN +0.57

L) MIL -1.00

W) HOU +0.59

W) OAK +1.00

Today: 3-1 +1.16

YTD (new system): 7-1 +3.89