Jurrjens, Braves have postseason on mind when Padres come to Atlanta

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Jurrjens, Braves have postseason on mind when Padres come to Atlanta
    Jurrjens and Braves have postseason on mind when Padres come to Atlanta

    Seven behind Philly in the NL East, and 4½ back of the Rockies in the NL Wild Card race, Atlanta looks to close both gaps this week when the Padres come to town.

    Talk about one team having another team's number.

    The Atlanta Braves welcome their version of rented mules to Turner Field tonight when they open a three-game set with the San Diego Padres. The Braves have all but owned the Pads since the start of the 2006 season winning 19 of the last 25 meetings, including two of three in SD earlier this month. As long as they don't get caught looking ahead to a crucial seven-game road swing through Philly and Florida after this series, it's a perfect time for Atlanta to continue their recent winning ways.

    Since dropping the opener of the series in San Diego on Aug 3, the Braves have won 13 of their last 18 contests while the Padres are just 3-8 over the last couple of weeks. Atlanta is hoping for a late push to get back into the playoffs for the first time since 2005 at the same time the Friars are simply trying to avoid the NL West cellar for a second consecutive season.

    Opening the series on Tuesday for Bobby Cox & Co. will be young righthander Jair Jurrjens (13-13, 2.99) with even younger righty Mat Latos (4-3, 4.82) taking the hill for Bud Black's boys. Add their ages together and you'd still come up a decade short of my age.

    Jurrjens missed facing the Padres out in San Diego earlier this month when the Braves paid a visit, and has only faced them once before in his career back in May 2008. That game was in Atlanta with the 23-year old working six, striking out eight and allowing just a run in a 5-3 win for the Georgians. With Brian Giles still missing from the SD lineup, only three other hitters have ever faced Jurrjens – Adrian Gonzalez, Luis Rodriguez and Kevin Kouzmanoff – and are all of 2-for-7 against him.

    With Atlanta just 13-13 in Jurrjens' outings this year, it's obvious he's been plagued by a lack of run support with his season-long sub-3.00 ERA. That was especially true in June when the Braves lost all five of his starts despite Jurrjens posting a fair 3.68 ERA. The offense has been picking it up of late however, scoring 104 times over their last 18 games (5.78 rpg compared to their 4.54 season average).

    Latos started and won the lone triumph San Diego has against Atlanta this season, tossing seven frames and surrendering just two runs in the 4-2 victory on Aug 3. The most important stat in that game might have been the 7 ground balls to 15 fly balls, a ratio that a pitcher can live with at Petco Park.

    After a very strong beginning to his MLB career that saw him 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA through his first five starts, Latos has been hammered in his two most recent outings to the tune of 12 earned in 7.2 innings in losses at St. Louis and home against the Cubs. The Padres' 11th-round pick in 2006 was brought up from Double-A San Antonio earlier this season, probably a year or maybe two earlier than anyone expected, and does have a good mid-90s fastball. And perhaps SD is rushing him a bit without the Triple-A experience. But his numbers at stops in San Antonio and Single-A Fort Wayne were simply too spectacular to ignore: 8-1 in 11 starts and two relief appearances, 1.36 ERA, 12 BB, 73 K in 72.1 IP.

    The two hottest run producers for the Braves lately, Brian McCann and Adam LaRoche, will be the obvious keys for Latos. LaRoche took him yard in the outing on Aug 3 and has been on a tear this month with seven homers since being dealt from the Red Sox back to Atlanta for his second go-around with the club.

    The series continues on Wednesday when Tim Stauffer (1-7, 3.95) battles Atlanta's Kenshin Kawakami (11-12, 3.97). Thursday's finale finds lefthander Clayton Richard (4-1 with SD, 3.67) on the mound for the Padres opposite Javier Vazquez (13-12, 3.14) for the Braves.

    As far as the weather, it should be in the low 80s for first pitch with winds out of the ESE at 5-10 MPH (from RF corner across to LF corner). There is a chance of a stray shower but nothing that would keep the game from being completed.
    No surprise to see big chalk on Atlanta for the series (-370) and Game 1 (-225) Though I hate playing favorite lines this high, I fully expect the Braves to be ready to play tonight and to take the series; going a half-unit on the run-line this evening and on Atlanta for the set.
  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #2
    Take the under each and every game and you will come out ahead with ease! I had this series pegged too, but the chalk for the series price was too real for me to take it. Good luck Willie!
    Comment
    • ZBOIZ
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 06-22-08
      • 21464

      #3
      Atlanta will sweep. I also have them -1.5 tonight
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Originally posted by cocknocker
        Take the under each and every game and you will come out ahead with ease! I had this series pegged too, but the chalk for the series price was too real for me to take it. Good luck Willie!
        Yep, thought about betting totals this series as well, but every once in a while a man just has to eat a little chalk. Good luck to you CK whichever way you tag it.
        Comment
        • THEGREAT30
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 10-04-08
          • 8970

          #5
          Don't know about the sweep. I live here and Atlanta scares me. They are semi-hot. Though, I feel like they will find a way to lose a game. Marlins and Cubs both have 6 game homestands in which they could win 5 or 6. So, Atlanta had better sweep to keep pace, because they will be lucky to get 1 of 3 from Philly.
          Comment
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