MLB Picks - Monday, 6/7/21

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Play Monday

Marlins +134 (Heritage)


YTD: 150-163-3, -15.99


All Bets at Heritage are LISTED PITCHERS
All Bets at Bookmaker are ACTION at odds taken including Totals and Run Lines

Season Low: -27.25 (May 19th)

[LT Profits]

No Action on Miami due to PC so no plays for now

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Pick Monday

1 MLB Play Monday

Royals / Angels OVER 9 -103 (Heritage)

[KVB]

MIA a big lean for me too, on the Contrarian Fund radar for sure.

But I'm now looking in the 170's. Kind of hoping it doesn't trigger under my algos, I don't really like it.

But who knows?

Good Luck LT.

[LT Profits]

MIA a big lean for me too, on the Contrarian Fund radar for sure.

But I'm now looking in the 170's. Kind of hoping it doesn't trigger under my algos, I don't really like it.

But who knows?

Good Luck LT.

Pitching change changes everything, early betting patterns are now irrelevant.

Also see Post #2, No Action for me.

[KVB]

Pitching change changes everything, early betting patterns are now irrelevant.

Also see Post #2, No Action for me.

I know, just pointing that fact out.

I had them on the radar earlier too, in fact, and I still do. Change even made them more attractive to me.

[KnuckleHeadz]

I know, just pointing that fact out.

I had them on the radar earlier too, in fact, and I still do. Change even made them more attractive to me.

I’m curious as to why KVB?
Boston is 3-4 best in the league vs LHP

[KVB]

I’m curious as to why KVB?
Boston is 3-4 best in the league vs LHP

I have Boston winning by a couple runs in my stacking percentages forecast but that raw forecast is just a start when it comes the Contrarian Fund.

I make a series of forecasts and gauges and it sure seems like everyone is lining up on Mia, especially after the pitching change. I have to gauge whether the pressure in the market is worth the price. If the books keep moving and blinking then they might not be taking as much of a position as it looks.

Sometimes the books hold the line take a position, then move it late and gather steam for that same position, furthering the position. There's different things I can look at but in the end it's all about making that adjustment to the raw forecast that I get from the market, based on history and data as well.

I track a lot of things and can build adjustments based on all kinds of unconventional data.

So the contrarian adjustments are getting the forecasts a little closer thant the 3 run Bos win of the raw forecast.

If we get that margin down, and are looking at +180 or so odds, we might get a bet.

I'm still comparing a probablity of of winning to the markets offered odds here. That's how I can make concrete decisions and sometime you here me lament that a play on the edge I didn't bet wins or that a game I just don't like gets bet by everyone into a trigger.

Hope that makes some sense.

[LT Profits]

I’m curious as to why KVB?
Boston is 3-4 best in the league vs LHP

Well, Thompson is righty, but it still does not matter much as this will likely be Bullpen Day.

[KVB]

The Contrarian Funds do not bet openers, like the raw forecasts could.

The Contrarian Funds need market activity and the more volume, the bigger the profile game, the better for the Funds.

The Funds look to see where the books are taking a positions and also use raw handicapping to decide whether or not to side with the books on a game, which would be contrarian to the "public" side.

I can open the target range, or tighten it down.

That's why you hear me mention the Backbone of the Fund as opposed to the broader Fund, with looser plays. I'm posting and tracking just the MLB Contrarian Fund Backbone this year.

[KVB]

Well, Thompson is righty, but it still does not matter much as this will likely be Bullpen Day.

Yup, too much attention on the starters anymore, these bullpens are making and breaking the probabilites.

[KVB]

Yup, too much attention on the starters anymore, these bullpens are making and breaking the probabilites.

Not that bettors don't know, 1st five bets are as popular as ever.

[jjgold]

Just bet action so you don’t have to deal with the issues

I don’t care who’s pitching when I have a position

[StackinGreen]

Im taking the rookie at a bigger price. Marlins like Pivetta.

[Brock Landers]

never get tired of losing

[KVB]

Im taking the rookie at a bigger price. Marlins like Pivetta.

Thompson was just called up, here are his 2021 triple A stats...

Season	Team	LG	W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	NP	BB	IBB	SO	AVG	WHIP	GO/AO
2021	MEM	AAA E	0	3	9.64	5	4	1	1	18.2	28	20	20	6	380	12	0	17	0.346	2.14	0.57

[RavensFan2k3]

Im taking the rookie at a bigger price. Marlins like Pivetta.

Let’s get it

[stake1]

never get tired of losing

Fredo: Lt Profits has been solid in Mlb the last few weeks. You should just go away, this thread is not for amateurs like you

[hubie69]

Good Luck Today LT

[mjsuax13]

Im taking the rookie at a bigger price. Marlins like Pivetta.

Same boat. Marlins win today.

[KVB]

Well it never triggered for me but was right on the edge. I didn't want it to trigger but would buy if it did.

So let's see if my discipline leads to more regret, like in the NHL playoffs.

Good Luck everyone.

[KnuckleHeadz]

Well, Thompson is righty, but it still does not matter much as this will likely be Bullpen Day.

Well, I seen Castano a lefty as the starter..
Gl man

[LT Profits]

Well, I seen Castano a lefty as the starter..
Gl man

Thompson started and went 3 innings, actually longer than I expected. Bullpen parade now in progress.

[stake1]

never get tired of losing

Lt with an easy winner. Something you know nada about