2021 MLB +1.5 Strategy

[imotiv8]

Let’s get it!

[imotiv8]

Last years thread

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/3614188-2020-mlb-1-5-strategy.html

[grecycle99]

SYSTEM #2

This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

2020 System to Date: 1-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 1U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 1-1
G2 - (B) 0-1
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190
April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112

SYSTEM #3

This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

2019 System to Date: 0-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 0U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 0-1
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 5 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOSS
April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -190

[KingofKOP]

Are the games backwards? MIL has only lost 3 straight. Boston only lost 3 straight. Thanks for tracking all this!

[spankmythighs]

[spankmythighs]

Took a year off. I wasn't sure about a shortened season last year. Looks like it went well

[spankmythighs]

SYSTEM #2

This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

2020 System to Date: 1-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 1U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 1-1
G2 - (B) 0-1
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190
April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112

SYSTEM #3

This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

2019 System to Date: 0-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 0U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 0-1
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 5 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOSS
April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -190

Grey what are we doing for LOSS recovery? How many games?

[spankmythighs]

Are the games backwards? MIL has only lost 3 straight. Boston only lost 3 straight. Thanks for tracking all this!

You would be correct. They should be flipped. C on System #3 and B on #2

[spankmythighs]

You would be correct. They should be flipped. C on System #3 and B on #2

Sorry that comment was just for OAK

[MexMamba]

Wow big blowout to my bankroll very early in the season

[spankmythighs]

Wow big blowout to my bankroll very early in the season

You should only be chasing to win 2 to 3% of your bankroll. Big blowout? Money management is key

[spankmythighs]

Wow big blowout to my bankroll very early in the season

You may want to try level betting the A and B bets too with system #3. They typically run about 60% or better win ratio. I run a separate system for all A bets and B bets. Its a level betting martingale of sorts that I use for soccer live betting. Depending on the odds and returns, in soccer I do -200 or better live so its structured like this:

50-50-50 150-150-150 450-450-450

3 wins at any level constitutes a level win and gets you back to the beginning. Baseball would probably avg -150 to -200 so adjust accordingly

[spankmythighs]

Last year System #3 for A and B:

G1 - (A) 45-20
G2 - (B) 15-6

[grecycle99]

Are the games backwards? MIL has only lost 3 straight. Boston only lost 3 straight. Thanks for tracking all this!

Yes my bads Thanks for catching that

[grecycle99]

Last year System #3 for A and B:

G1 - (A) 45-20
G2 - (B) 15-6

Glad to see you back spank! Are you able to take over?, I have a lot on my plate this days! Thanks

[Pacific Square]

Brutal loss right off the bat.

Unbelievable..

[MexMamba]

You should only be chasing to win 2 to 3% of your bankroll. Big blowout? Money management is key

I follow 2 systems home opener and this one
In less than a week we are already down around 60 units...i dont know your bankroll but for me 60 units its about 120% of my bankroll

[spankmythighs]

I follow 2 systems home opener and this one
In less than a week we are already down around 60 units...i dont know your bankroll but for me 60 units its about 120% of my bankroll

No sure about the other system you are playing but for System #3 you shouldnt be down more than 10 units. The last 3 OAK +1.5 best were: -179, -120, -105

You are doing something wrong. There would be a C Bet on System #2 for OAK today and MIL won last night

[spankmythighs]

No sure about the other system you are playing but for System #3 you shouldnt be down more than 10 units. The last 3 OAK +1.5 best were: -179, -120, -105

You are doing something wrong. There would be a C Bet on System #2 for OAK today and MIL won last night

*bets

[spankmythighs]

Glad to see you back spank! Are you able to take over?, I have a lot on my plate this days! Thanks

Post todays and then I can pick it up

[spankmythighs]

Should just be a System #2 C bet for OAK today

[spankmythighs]

Recoup on OAK in System #3 begins. New loss tracking on OAK begins too on System #3 so no play until they lose another 3 in a row by 2 or more runs

[spankmythighs]

SYSTEM #2

This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

2021 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 3U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 1-1
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190 --- WIN
April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -112 ---LOSS
April 7: OAK C BET RL+ -105 --- WIN
April 8: NO PLAY

SYSTEM #3

This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL. Recoup over 10 series

2021 System to Date: 2-1 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: -8.5U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 2

G1 - (A) 0-3
G2 - (B) 2-1
G3 - (C) 0-1

April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOSS
April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112 --- LOSS
April 7: NO PLAY
April 8: MIA A BET RL+ -125 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK
April 8: PITT A BET RL+-130 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK

[sunshine11]

I follow 2 systems home opener and this one
In less than a week we are already down around 60 units...i dont know your bankroll but for me 60 units its about 120% of my bankroll

That's gambling. No sure things except death and taxes.

[spankmythighs]

That's gambling. No sure things except death and taxes.

Agreed. Mitigating losses comes with strict money management and treating these systems as a marathon not a sprint. That OAK loss certainly sucks but it was a 10 unit loss on my books

[spankmythighs]

SYSTEM #2

This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

2021 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 3U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 1-1
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190 --- WIN
April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -112 ---LOSS
April 7: OAK C BET RL+ -105 --- WIN
April 8: NO PLAY
April 9: NO PLAY

SYSTEM #3

This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL. Recoup over 10 series

2021 System to Date: 3-1 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: -6.5U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 1-4
G2 - (B) 2-1
G3 - (C) 0-1

April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOSS
April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112 --- LOSS
April 7: NO PLAY
April 8: MIA A BET RL+ -125 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK --- WIN
April 8: PITT A BET RL+-130 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK --- LOSS
April 9: NO PLAY

[spankmythighs]

SYSTEM #2

This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

2021 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: 3U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 2-1
G2 - (B) 1-1
G3 - (C) 0-0

April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOST
April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190 --- WIN
April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -112 ---LOSS
April 7: OAK C BET RL+ -105 --- WIN
April 8: NO PLAY
April 9: NO PLAY
April 10: PIT A BET RL+ 120

SYSTEM #3

This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL. Recoup over 10 series

2021 System to Date: 3-1 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: -6.5U (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1

G1 - (A) 1-4
G2 - (B) 2-1
G3 - (C) 0-1

April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOSS
April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112 --- LOSS
April 7: NO PLAY
April 8: MIA A BET RL+ -125 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK --- WIN
April 8: PITT A BET RL+-130 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK --- LOSS
April 9: NO PLAY
April 10: PIT B BET RL+ -120

[spankmythighs]

Potential D-Backs play tomorrow too

[md3324]

If anyone cares...I’ve been starting my plays after 2 losses. Here are the splits...

A: 14-6
B: 4-2
C: 0-1

[spankmythighs]

If anyone cares...I’ve been starting my plays after 2 losses. Here are the splits...

A: 14-6
B: 4-2
C: 0-1

MD I would dabble with 2 losses by 2 or more for teams that are .500 or better 👍

[imotiv8]

MD I would dabble with 2 losses by 2 or more for teams that are .500 or better 👍

I think this is actually profitable. Why don’t we track these plays too?

[md3324]

I just found this thread this year and saw the splits from last year. A and B games won at a 2-1 rate and C games hit less then 50% of the time...so I figured I’d start after two games. I’d get more plays and B and C games should hit at a 2-1 rate. 🤷🏼*♂️ I don’t wanna clog the thread but I could post the plays if people want them.

[spankmythighs]

I just found this thread this year and saw the splits from last year. A and B games won at a 2-1 rate and C games hit less then 50% of the time...so I figured I’d start after two games. I’d get more plays and B and C games should hit at a 2-1 rate. 🤷🏼*♂️ I don’t wanna clog the thread but I could post the plays if people want them.

MD I will add that in but only for teams .500 or better. Everyone in aggreance there? I will start this tomorrow

[spankmythighs]

Pirates are also an A bet on System #2. My bad there

[spankmythighs]

Pirates are also an A bet on System #2. My bad there

Lmao nevermind I had it. I'm losing it 😜