Under Alert for Wednesday: Pit vs. Col U 9.5

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  • Nickelicious
    SBR MVP
    • 05-21-09
    • 2647

    #1
    Under Alert for Wednesday: Pit vs. Col U 9.5
    Okay, I don't get it.

    Ubaldo Jimenez: 3.65 ERA 1.26 WHIP, 1.84 ERA in August. Has allowed three or fewer runs in six straight starts. In three games against Pittsburgh, Jimenez is 1-0 with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.0, and the under has gone 2-1.

    Kevin Hart: 2.94 ERA 1.51 WHIP, acquired by Pit a couple weeks ago from the Cubs.

    Despite the ERA, Hart is the weak link here, which is why Pitt is a +220 or more ML dog. And we are talking Coors Field.

    Pittsburgh won 7-3 yesterday, so now the Rockies are a huge favorite and I think Jimenez will be on top of his game. The only gray area to me is Hart, who just got traded to Pittsburgh and has something to prove after taking a loss in his first start with them, despite giving up only 3 runs in six innings.

    Both bullpens are just average. Colorado's bats have been running pretty hot, but they only managed 3 runs against Ross Ohlendorf and 4 relievers last night.

    I'm heavy on the under here at -117. And following my thought, I plunked a couple units on the Pittsburgh RL +1.5 at even odds, which seems like a good deal for what I see as a pitcher's duel.
  • bostonboss
    SBR MVP
    • 02-04-09
    • 3169

    #2
    you went against the morrison theory? how dARE YOU
    Comment
    • Nickelicious
      SBR MVP
      • 05-21-09
      • 2647

      #3
      No, Boston, this play is not going against the Morrison system. It's an O/U play with a shaded counterplay on the B bet for the v3.0 system. In fact, I could play the v3.0 B bet with Colorado on the ML, bet the counterplay on the +1.5 RL for Pittsburgh (which I did, just for fun) and win both wagers if Colorado won by one run, which wouldn't surprise me at all. While I am not going with the ML play on the Rockies for this game, I might jump in on the C bet with the Rockies in game 3 of this series if they don't win the B bet, which is too steep for me at -230+ ML.

      Confused? Yeah, I thought so. Study the system and let me know when you get out of kindergarden.
      Comment
      • bostonboss
        SBR MVP
        • 02-04-09
        • 3169

        #4
        lol let me know when you win something.....
        Comment
        • bostonboss
          SBR MVP
          • 02-04-09
          • 3169

          #5
          you'll never win as much as i have in 12 years i guarantee that...........jump on those mariners tomorrow too lol
          Comment
          • Nickelicious
            SBR MVP
            • 05-21-09
            • 2647

            #6
            Check the Morrison thread, buddy. IF I was to jump on the Sox/Mariners game, I'd be riding with you and the Sox.
            Comment
            • bostonboss
              SBR MVP
              • 02-04-09
              • 3169

              #7
              take the sox.....i highly advise it
              Comment
              • Nickelicious
                SBR MVP
                • 05-21-09
                • 2647

                #8
                I might just do that, man. Thanks for the tip. We're all just trying to make a go of it, and you've been doing pretty well for 12 years. Regardless of the Morrison sh!t, what do ya think about this O/U?

                I do bet on a lot more than the systems, by the way!
                Comment
                • bostonboss
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-04-09
                  • 3169

                  #9
                  thats good im worried about those who just stick to that one system......as far as the over/under goes....i'll let you know in 2 minutes have to research something real quick
                  Comment
                  • bostonboss
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-04-09
                    • 3169

                    #10
                    i like the under 9.5 but not enough to play it
                    Comment
                    • bostonboss
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-04-09
                      • 3169

                      #11
                      pittsburgh are free swingers......hart is good enough to make a quality start..........only concern is wind might shift to out to right at 10mph before game time.......
                      Comment
                      • Nickelicious
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-21-09
                        • 2647

                        #12
                        Originally posted by bostonboss
                        i like the under 9.5 but not enough to play it
                        That's cool. As long as you didn't come back with any of that Hart is "just a reliever crap and will get bombed." I know he's relatively untested as a starter, but I think he's motivated to pitch strong tomorrow and I think he has the juice to do it.

                        We'll see what happens tomorrow.
                        Comment
                        • bostonboss
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-04-09
                          • 3169

                          #13
                          no hart can go 6 or 7 no problem......plus he tends to get out of jams and bear down when necessary...my worry is jimenez...if he lacks control its a big problem
                          Comment
                          • Nickelicious
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-21-09
                            • 2647

                            #14
                            Originally posted by bostonboss
                            no hart can go 6 or 7 no problem......plus he tends to get out of jams and bear down when necessary...my worry is jimenez...if he lacks control its a big problem
                            Good point. Jimenez was wild in his last game, but before that he only had 9 walks in 34 innings. He went 6+ innings in those previous 5 starts, averaging 1.5 walks per game. Pitching at home tomorrow, I think he'll be solid.
                            Comment
                            • bostonboss
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-04-09
                              • 3169

                              #15
                              he is the question mark......but again pitt will swing alot so he should be fine
                              Comment
                              • head_strong
                                SBR MVP
                                • 07-02-08
                                • 4318

                                #16
                                I agree Jimenez should be back into form tomorrow, and should turn out a strong performance.
                                Comment
                                • Nickelicious
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-21-09
                                  • 2647

                                  #17
                                  I see this one as a 4-3 type of game.
                                  Comment
                                  • Nickelicious
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-21-09
                                    • 2647

                                    #18
                                    Well, it wasn't a 4-3 type of game as I thought it would it be, but my second straight O/U Alert hit the bulls eye! As predicted Jimenez was on top of his game and pitched a beauty. Hart allowed three runs through five but started getting hammered in the sixth and the bullpen nearly gave away the under in the eighth, but we still got it by 1.5 runs!
                                    Comment
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