Broadcasting Live From The Bay Area Giants vs Phillies 7/30/09 through 8/2/09

[cocknocker]

Now is the time to check in on the lines one las time before the ball gets thrown out

Baltimore of course only has 20% of bettors on their side as Jow McLovin is on the Red Sox

Only 31% of bettors are on the Cubs/Marlins over 8.5

63% of bettors are on the Blue Birds and they have shitty movement down from -120 opening to around -113 on average.

The Giants have 47% of bettors money on them and the line increased from -145 to -150.

So far so good. Now let's see how it translates to performance on the field.

Let's go Giants!

[Pick'nParlays]

CK,
Love the sf play tonight. Timmy will deal. Staying away from the O/U at 7. Want to play Mil/SD over 8. Thoughts? Thanks

[haserfauld]

excellent pick with the cubs/marlin over...looking brilliant so far. pounded it as usual

[cocknocker]

Badenhop gives up 6 runs as prescribed!

[cocknocker]

CK,
Love the sf play tonight. Timmy will deal. Staying away from the O/U at 7. Want to play Mil/SD over 8. Thoughts? Thanks

I actually like the under because no one is playing it

[t-bone]

I gotta play the Blue Jays/A's UNDER 8.5 after getting hosed on it last night.......there's guys from my college d-3 team that could start for Oakland! Cecil is a good pitcher

[cocknocker]

Let's go O's. Let's go O's! Don't me!

Let's go O's, Let's go O's!

What you say?


Uh! Bitches sing it again!


Let's go O's, Let's go O's


I don't give a !


Let's O's, Let's go O's!

[cocknocker]

Man I don't give a Swarzak. Better get in line... Anyway looking ahead to Sunday Cuzzzz

Wahoos-105 Hell yeah
Yanks-135 HEAVY CC gets the call, Buerhle is 0-5 s/u vs Yanks
Braves-120 Jurrjens must be taken until he loses to the Dodgers
Marlins-112

Series plays

Blue Birds-120 Romero Bay-Bee. This one's for the series
Twins+105 Perkins is undefeated against the Angels yet he's a home dog?

Giants+1.5-105 The public just doesn't get it. You can't give them this kind of line at home.

[JayRow]

Man I don't give a Swarzak. Better get in line... Anyway looking ahead to Sunday Cuzzzz

Wahoos-105 Hell yeah
Yanks-135 HEAVY CC gets the call, Buerhle is 0-5 s/u vs Yanks
Braves-120 Jurrjens must be taken until he loses to the Dodgers

Series plays

Blue Birds-127 Romero saves the f*ckin' day!
Twins+105 Perkins is undefeated against the Angels yet he's a home dog?
Giants+1.5-105 The public just doesn't get it. You can't give them this kind of line at home.

for the "series plays" are these just repeating the series bets we made a few days ago or are these actually playing the specific game as well?

Thanks,
JR

[cocknocker]

Those are the teams I took to win their respective series. So I am playing the majority of my games within those series. Ideally I would like to get two wins plus the series win, and t least one RL win.

[cocknocker]

C'mon Cubs! Get that parlay money!

[lakerboy]

hey ck great call today on cubs over

[cocknocker]

Alright the camera and crew are in place... Testing. testing, 1-2. On the air in 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9- ON AIR.

Hell everybody, this is CK coming to you live from my desk overlooking my dog mauling African Violets from off of our fence. This is what the Giants are doing to the Phillies this weekend as they taook the opener 7-2 yesterday to get off on theright foot for this weekends' showdown with the Phils.

On the hill starting for the Wahoos are their big free agent pick up Cliff Lee. He is set to face Sadowski who is in a bit of a cold streak. Speaking of cold, th Phils bts are just that and the matchup is a littl emore even than expected because of that. With a lead of 1-0 in the series, I think today is a good day to take the day off from this series as i got both my Win and my -1.5 win in Game 1. I will sit on my hands and take the Giants on Saturday when I can get Lincecum for a discounted rate.


Giants+110 for Series 2-1 Win
CK's Record for series 3-0 +5.66 units

Won my Giants-1.5 bet today and yes, the Giants cashed the ticket as the series bet is based upon the first three games only! Nice cheddar. I am gonna take the Giants tomorrow too probably! But now I am happy with the overall win for the series!

[cocknocker]

Thanks, lakerboy! wish that the Blue Birds would tack on some insurance runs to get me my RL play too!

[cocknocker]

Bastards let the A's score in the bottom of the 9th! Now I have to play another Blue Birds RL tomorrow...

[cocknocker]

Looking ahead to the beginning of the week for the series starting


8/3/09 and ending 8/6/09, I like:

Dodgers-160 (Projected) The Dodgers have a sterling 7-3 overall and 8-2 mark against the Brewers at home. The Brewers have horrid pitchin so you can probably take the Dodgers runline blindly all three games and win two without trying. The mismatches are that bad. Dodger pitchers have a 5-2 record overall against the Brewers and the Brewers pitchers have a very pedestrian 1-4 mark against te Dodgers. Look for the boys in blue to get hot as a result of this series. The viggo may be kinda highbut it's a good investment.


Series starting 8/4/09 through 8/6/09

Pale Hose-115 (Projected) The Pales are hot right now and look for it to continue into the series with the Angels as they have a good chance to pick up a victory in game one when Lackey faces off with Contreas. Lackey is 0-5 in streak vs the Pale Hose and Contreas is 4-1. From there it's a coin toss on the other games, but the Pales strong home presence should get one of the other games to be a W. Angel pitching is a horrid 4-11 against the Pales overall compared to 5-3 for the Pales vs the Angels. This series may get ugly!

KC+125 I am taking the Royals, yes I am. For whatever reason, they have the Mariners number, with identical 8-2 marks overall and at home against the M's. Rowland Smith could very easily lose the first game to Hochevar, and game 2 between French and Pnson may end up being a goody too as French is 1-0 against the Royals and Ponson is 4-1 against the M's. Royals starters have a combined 7-3 mark overall compared to the M's 1-1, a testament to the M's shedding of Washburn. Their pitching is young and untested. Royals don't care because they have concerns of their own.

Marlins-260 You already know that this iscoming. The Marlins have beaten the sht out of the nats with a perfect 10-0 reocrd overall in the last 10 contests between these two teams and a 9-1 mark at home vs the Nats. Obviously I will be having tplay the Marlins -1.5 any game that i take them in most notably game one wherein ohnson and his perfect 5-0 record vs. Nats gets put to the test. Volstad is also undefeated vs. the Nats 2-0. Just keep taking the runline, and you will win 2 out of three. Some teams f*ck around with the nats. The Marlins don't cut thm any slack and blow them out on the regular. The price for he series will be extra steep, but you will win many more than you lose fading the nats in their series.

[cocknocker]

The Braves also have a 8-2 overall and road record against the Padres, but their seris price is liable to be -300 or more. I will be playing the Braves on an individual game basis

[xXxBallin21xXx]

KC on a Sunday morning against TB? Sounds tough, but possible. GL!

whoops, i thought u were talking about 2morrows game.

[cocknocker]

Blue Birds/A's (I bleed green so this is a hard one to do!)


It's goin' down in the Town tonight as the Blue Birds are fixin' to lay in to the A's. And man is there quite a buzz in the air this weekend for games to attend out here. But anyway onto the action. The Blue Birds are throwing out Richmond this evening against Braden. I'm not wild about playing him, but it's a must since I think that they will win this series. Richmond is 1-1 vs the A's, the only one with a blemish on his record against the Towners. I got a good price on the line at +116 and +100 for the series. I like my chances in this one with the twin 8-2 records overall and on the road vs the A's for the Blue Birds.

All of the A's pitchers have been getting killed lately and I don't expect for that to change. The staff that will face the Blue Birds in this series is winless against them going a collective 0-3. The plus money is a blessing in this series.

Plays for Friday


Blue Birds+116 Game 1 Loss
BlueBirds-1.5 +185 RRL Game 1 Loss
Blue Birds+100 for series vs A's

Series record 1-1-0
CK's record for series 1-3-0 -2 units

With two straight RL losses, I'm not getting anywhere as fast as I wanted to, and the linemaker had the audacity to make the line only +135, which in my opinion is not worth the risk involved (see Saturday night's 9th inning run to kill my runline ticket). So I will instead play the Blue Jays for 2X as much in game 3. If they win then I will have gotten three wins out of the series and a nice profit from the series wager. That's all that i can ask for

[cocknocker]

With the Twins picking up Cabrera they are getting a guy who is hitting pretty well and is a gold glove caliber shortstop. This will help out with soldifying the infield behind a strike throwing "put the ball in play" team like the Twins. He is an ex-Angel so this will be an interesting backdrop.

Anyway

Twins/Angels

I really like how the Twins play at home. They have the 3rd best run producing park factor in the bigs and being a dome/turf team they really know how to play the bounces. The Angels come in as hot as shit, so this is a tough play to make going against them, but the numbers are there for the matchup to be a close one with the twins picking up the extra victory for the series win. It will take the Angels awhile to adapt to the dome factor. The Twins will take full advantage of that.

The juice is too high for my liking so I'm going straight for the juggular on the first play. I made a small play on the Twins-1.5+145 RL, becasue i don't have full confidence in Blackburn vs the Angels lineup. He is 1-3 vs he Angels so I expect more of the same tonight. But the way I do things is what it is. Swarzak and Perkins are a combined 3-0 vs the Angels. I will more than likely bring the wood in those games and stop pitterpatting around.

Twins-1.5 +145 Small play
Twins-120 for series vs Angels Loss
Twins/Angels series record 0-2-0
CK's personal record 0-1-0 -1 unit

The fact that I have not made another lay on this series since my initial small offering on game 1 shows me that I didn't like the plays when they presented themselves. I do however like the matchup for Sunday to go in the twins favor and i am backing Perkins who is undefeated vs the Angels. I can at least take some of the sting off of taking this series loss. I'm gonna pep it up a bit and play the Twins on Sunday+105 for 2X the normal amount to make up for the series play loss.

Sunday

Twins+105 2X

[cocknocker]

So tonight's line watch for my games on Sunday...

Consensus numbers

Cleveland 32%
Toronto 44%
Braves 30%
Twins 33%
Florida 46%
Yanks 64% Of course

[Nickelicious]

I made the investment....

I put 2U on the over last night and might pump another unit on it, but that'll do it.

Wish I had gone with that 10 units. I knew this was a CK winner after vetting it and reading his rationale for it. Will continue sifting through CK's plays for another golden nugget.

[Dexter]

Sunday 8/2-

braves (A3) - size pending day action

(1x) giants (Runline) (A1)

(3x) over angels (A4)

Revenge Alert

(3x) marlins - nolasco (2.79/1.13 last 3) has that type of bulldog mentality to avenge a loss. not only did his marlins lose to the cubs on sat, but he also got pounded in wrigley earlier in the year. in his last home game vs the cubs, he had a 7ip/1er performance. dumpster on the bump for chi, and he wasnt right in his first start since early july. though my years of sports gambling, ive come to the conclusion that the smart/sharp line moves happen at the open. the wiseguys have adjusted the marlins to a -120 favorite after vegas opened chi -110.

[ram1502]

Does anyone have any explanation for the 20+ points of line movement in the Jays/A's game? I like the Jays and Romero today, but the line have dropped more than 20 points with ~75% of the bets on them. Something fishy going on....

[cocknocker]

Does anyone have any explanation for the 20+ points of line movement in the Jays/A's game? I like the Jays and Romero today, but the line have dropped more than 20 points with ~75% of the bets on them. Something fishy going on....

Something fishy was going on with the line yesterday too I noticed. The line for Cecil fell like a ton of bricks during the day. I am on the Blue Birds anyway, and it is a must play to make as I have the Blue Birds for the series. Line movement isn't always the thing to watch ofr. Knowing WHY the line moved is the thing you want to be n the know about. My guess is that the powers that be didn't want to increase the Blue Birds line yesterday so as to not show their hand. I feel the same is going on today. The play is the Blue Birds-111, or whatever you can get it at. I was also coming to the thread to announce that the lin for the runline play is now in my range so i am taking the Blue Birds-1.5 +140 now in addition to my moneyline play!

[cocknocker]

Man I don't give a Swarzak. Better get in line... Anyway looking ahead to Sunday Cuzzzz

Wahoos-105 Hell yeah
Yanks-135 HEAVY CC gets the call, Buerhle is 0-5 s/u vs Yanks
Braves-120 Jurrjens must be taken until he loses to the Dodgers
Marlins-112

Series plays

Blue Birds-111 Romero Bay-Bee. This one's for the series
Blue Birds-1.5 +140
Twins+105 Perkins is undefeated against the Angels yet he's a home dog?

Giants+1.5-105 The public just doesn't get it. You can't give them this kind of line at home.

I have now added on the Blue Birds RL+140 as the amount of payout for it is now in my range

[cocknocker]

PC Play on Detroit Shock-3.5 (WNBA)

[JayRow]

Damn bookmaker had...
braves -138
fish - 143

more vigorish than i'd like to pay buy would you recommend paying the vig or taking RL?

[hockeytown71]

My local has the Shock @ -5. So I bought it down to -3 and also took Shock ml -220! I have full trust in you CK!
As for bases, I've got:

Tailing CK on all but Cleve. (I actually have Det in the series and Galarraga has been better as of late)

Also my own plays are:
LA/ATL Under 4 in 1st 5
WAS/PITT Under 4.5 in 1st 5
Mets ml -122 (more of a hunch, I first like Arizona)
Parlaying:
BRAVES/PITT/CARDS -1.5/YANKS (8/1)

[hockeytown71]

Adding Cards -1.5 -130
Houston/Cards Over 4 in 1st 5

[shoebox]

thanks for that over yesterday ck...

[peterpan19]

Wahoos looking good so far...6-0... and hell I got the feeling CC is not the same today...dont like what I see so far from him...

[JayRow]

I have now added on the Blue Birds RL+140 as the amount of payout for it is now in my range

CK,
If typically, on your normal plays I put 1 Unit on each (2 on Heavy Plays), when you have two plays for one team (blue birds, for example, today) should I put .5 of a Unit on the RL and .5 of a unit on the ML making 1 total Unit, or 1 unit on each?

Thanks,
JR

[peterpan19]

NYY up 3-0...good start...now lets show them what you can CC...

[peterpan19]

well NYY down 1 right now... and what happened in Baltimore...6 runs in 1 Inning...insane