MLB Season $$$$$$$ Tracker Thread

[Xpertcapper]

A few historical records this year for Greinke and the Royals. Royals are 0-4 in Greinkes last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Royals are 0-4 in Greinkes last 4 starts. Royals are 0-4 in Greinkes last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Royals are 0-4 in Greinkes last 4 starts on grass. Royals are 0-4 in Greinkes last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Royals are 0-4 in Greinkes last 4 starts as a favorite.

I dont really care about the history of the umpires but if you are here it is. Royals are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Bell behind home plate. Home team is 8-1 in Bells last 9 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore.

These arent the main reasons i am on Baltimore but i guess they dont hurt the argument.

[Xpertcapper]

The Rockies are getting closer to a play for me tonight. That play might be real close to game time so stay tuned if you want my action on it.

[Xpertcapper]

Kansas City (Z. Greinke) @ Baltimore (C. Tillman)

Play: Baltimore ML +121 ($100.00 to win $121.00)


ytd:
3-0, +$350.00

[G's pks]

Wait...who is starting tonight for Baltimore??? What happened to BERGESEN??? I will pass.... GL G.

[Xpertcapper]

I will monitor my Colorado play and update before gametime which has been moved to 5pm pst due to a rain delay.

[Xpertcapper]

Wait...who is starting tonight for Baltimore??? What happened to BERGESEN??? I will pass.... GL G.

In my opinion Greinke is still a great fade tonight..GL

Home dog against a horrid team..all day!

[G's pks]

In my opinion Greinke is still a great fade tonight..GL

I know Balt can hit no doubt about it..it is their pitching that always worries me...

[Xpertcapper]

**Huge late money on Baltimore. Line has dropped 7 cents in the last 5 minutes**

[G's pks]

In my opinion Greinke is still a great fade tonight..GL

Home dog against a horrid team..all day!

I do like your thinking though...keep up the good work... GL tonight G.

[Xpertcapper]

Maybe the Royals bats will be silent, they didnt get to finish batting practice due to the rain..lol

[Xpertcapper]

Unfortunately the Baltimore play is delayed due to rain. Here is the updated forecast for tonights game:

65% chance of thunderstorms all night. Doesnt look good.

[Dexter]

Let me share with everyone who reads this thread a important fact about sports wagering and this is my strong opinion and you might dissagree. The problem with alot of normal everyday people who wager on games want action all the time. I've seen people post on this thread almost everyday saying, "hurry up and post, do you have any plays? I want to play a early game." Typically people want action on a game at every different start time so they can be entertained with a wager. They place wagers just to have action without making smart plays.

More than 99% of all sports bettors could be categorized as square whether they choose to admit it or not. This is because most people use sports betting as a leisure activity and are blind to the realities of gambling. Square bettors wager on sports just to have action. In an effort to kill boredom or capture the adrenaline rush they get when a team they bet on covers the spread after nailing a buzzer beating basket. This behavior is often exacerbated under the influence of alcohol or peer pressure by fellow square bettors. This impetus to bet usually leads to a string of bad habits which ultimately ends with the bettor losing more then they win.

Instead of doing their homework the amateur seeks and unfortunately takes the advice of sports pundits and friends with a bias. Using the “what have you done for me lately” system of handicapping the square bettor will easily lay the points on a double digit favorite with a two game winning streak without further research. Consistently overrating their alma-mater and having faith in short term trends quickly drains the square’s wallet. The square bettor will place their wagers when it is convenient, failing to use strategy while disregarding line movement. Hurried betting minutes before game-time is the norm. Finding the closest or easiest to navigate sportsbook is more important to the square bettor then taking time to locate the book with the best line or price.

The squares idea of money management is setting aside a small chunk of cash and betting random amounts depending how they feel about each game. Inevitably they have a winning weekend. Feeling particularly confident with the help of a few beers they give away yesterdays profit after making a losing bet on a sure thing. Conversely the gambler who had a bad Sunday betting on the NFL feels the need to chase their losses. Betting on Monday Night Football becomes mandatory because it is the last opportunity to at least breakeven before next weekends games.

Another pitfall and favorite choice for square bettors are parlays. Parlays are a high risk illusion with a payoff to appealing to resist. Unaware that the odds of winning a three game parlay are not much bettor then 1 in 10 square bettors eagerly lay down their money for a chance at a big pay day.

Moral of the story is dont wager just to have action on a game. As you saw i had no early action plays today. If you dont have any early action plays then big deal, win your wagers later in the day or evening and just watch the early games for fun. You will win more wagers in he long run.

nice read....is this an article you got somewhere else?

[Xpertcapper]

Looks like the Baltimore play will be my only play tonight.

[Xpertcapper]

Sanchez to Giants for Alderson

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By Jerry Crasnick
ESPN.com
Archive
The San Francisco Giants, taking another step to upgrade the National League's 15th-ranked offense, acquired three-time All-Star Freddy Sanchez from Pittsburgh on Wednesday for pitching prospect Tim Alderson.
Sanchez, 31, won the National League batting title in 2006. He's hitting .296 this year and ranks fifth in the major leagues in doubles. He helps upgrade a San Francisco offense that ranks 15th in the National League in runs scored.

Freddy Sanchez

#12 2B
Pittsburgh Pirates

2009 STATS

• GM86
• HR6
• RBI34
• R45
• OBP.334
• AVG.296

The teams announced the trade right after the Giants beat Pittsburgh 1-0 in 10 innings. Sanchez had to change clubhouses to join his new team, which is in the thick of the NL wild-card race.
He gave his hugs and handshakes and bid farewell on the visitor's side, then walked to San Francisco's locker room to pull on his new No. 28 jersey and a black Giants cap before being introduced.
"It's crazy," said Sanchez, who's unsure when he'll make his Giants debut because of a knee injury. "I'd be lying if I didn't say it's a little crazy, a little hectic. I'm here for a reason."
The Giants, 54-46 and tied with Colorado for first in the NL wild-card race, have remade the right side of their infield leading up to Friday's trade deadline. They acquired first baseman Ryan Garko in a trade with Cleveland on Monday, and will now plug in Sanchez at second base.
"Simply put, our long-awaited next move has finally been consummated," Giants general manager Brian Sabean said. "A kid that has distinguished himself as an All-Star three out of the last four years and a batting champ within that time frame. The timing's great."
The Giants paid a big price for Sanchez in surrendering Alderson, who was ranked by Baseball America as the No. 4 prospect in the San Francisco organization entering this season. Alderson, 20, is 6-foot-6 and 217 pounds. He has a 7-2 record and a 3.65 ERA in two minor league stops this season.
The Giants selected Alderson with the 22nd overall pick in Major League Baseball's first-year player draft two years ago and gave him a $1.29 million signing bonus.
"We are pleased to bring in a pitcher as highly regarded as Alderson into our system," Pirates GM Neal Huntington said. "Tim has the size, frame, athleticism and an advanced feel for pitching at his age to become a high quality Major League starting pitcher. He has a solid arsenal of pitches with plus command that has allowed him to move through the Giants' deep system at an accelerated pace."
Sabean went ahead with the deal after the team's medical staff checked out Sanchez's tender left knee Wednesday for the second time this week. Dr. Ken Akizuki found noticeable improvement in the knee since a previous exam Monday and categorized Sanchez as day to day.
"It's tough coming to a new team not knowing if you can play or not," Sanchez said. "That's the last thing you want to do is come to a new team and be in the trainer's room. I want to get there as soon as I can but I also want to be smart about it."
Sanchez was out of the lineup and replaced at second base by Delwyn Young in the Pirates' 1-0, 10-inning loss to San Francisco on Wednesday afternoon.
Huntington has already traded away Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan and Adam LaRoche this season, and the Pirates sent pitcher Ian Snell and shortstop Jack Wilson to Seattle in a seven-player trade Wednesday.
Sanchez has an $8 million option that vests if he accrues 600 plate appearances this season, and the Pirates moved him after determining that price was beyond their comfort zone. The Pirates recently proposed voiding the option and signing Sanchez to a two-year, $10 million option.
Sanchez and his representatives rejected the proposal and made a counteroffer for a deal that would pay him $6.5 million next year, $6.5 million in 2011 and $7 million in 2012, but the Pirates rejected that offer.

The Minnesota Twins, whose second-base contingent ranks last in the major leagues with a feeble .505 OPS, were also reportedly interested in Sanchez.

[Xpertcapper]

The Cleveland Indians traded Cliff Lee and outfielder Ben Francisco to the Philadelphia Phillies for four minor leaguers on Wednesday.

Edge of the Cliff

Cliff Lee is moving to Philadelphia and a ballpark that tends to punish fly-ball pitchers. Lee has fly-ball tendencies (54.5 pct of balls in play), but when the ball goes into the air, he keeps it in the park. A look at the pitchers with the lowest fly-ball to home run percentage for pitchers with a minimum 900 batters faced (2008-09):
Player/TeamHR/FB Pct.Tim Lincecum, SF3.3Cliff Lee, CLE3.4Jair Jurrjens, ATL3.8Ubaldo Jimenez, COL4.0Mike Pelfrey, NYM4.1


Triple-A right-hander Carlos Carrasco, Class A righty Jason Knapp, catcher Lou Marson -- the likely heir apparent to Victor Martinez -- and shortstop Jason Donald were sent to Cleveland.

"At the root of this deal was balancing the conviction of our ability to compete in 2010 with the opportunity to impact the team's construction for years to come," Indians general manager Mark Shapiro said in a statement. "Without the sense of confidence in the team's ultimate competitiveness, we acted aggressively to add players that will impact the organization in 2010 and beyond."

The Phillies weren't required to give up pitcher J.A. Happ or the three prospects they balked at trading for Roy Halladay -- outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor and pitcher Kyle Drabek.
Asked in Seattle whether he felt the Blue Jays dodged a bullet by the Phillies acquiring Lee instead of Halladay, Toronto manager Cito Gaston noted that some of Philadelphia's top prospects were still available and said with a chuckle, "Yeah, I guess. Who knows? They may come back and get [Halladay], too. That'd be a pretty good staff there, wouldn't it?"
Lee, the 2008 AL Cy Young winner who turns 31 next month, is having another solid season for the Indians, posting a 3.14 ERA while walking just 33 in 152 innings. He will make $8 million in 2010 and then be eligible for free agency.
Lee, who was a guest on ESPN950 in Philadelphia on Wednesday morning, was asked if he definitely plans to test free agency.
"That's where every player wants to be, so honestly, the closer I get to that point, the more likelihood I'm going to be testing free agency," he said. "But I still have a year and two months 'til then, so we'll see."
Lee would be the sixth Cy Young winner to be traded in the offseason or during the season following his Cy Young win. Last season, 2007 AL Cy Young winner CC Sabathia was traded by the Indians to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Lee gives the Phillies another top starter to join Cole Hamels. Hamels, who was MVP of the World Series and NLCS last fall, has been inconsistent this season. He's 7-5 with a 4.42 ERA, though he pitched well in a Tuesday night victory over the Diamondbacks.
The Phillies have a comfortable lead in the division -- seven games ahead of second-place Florida going into Wednesday's games. They've sought pitching help since No. 2 starter Brett Myers had hip surgery in June. Forty-six-year-old Jamie Moyer leads the staff with 10 wins, but he has a 5.32 ERA.
"Obviously the Phillies are the defending world champions, they're a good team and they're in first place," Lee, sitting in the Indians' clubhouse in Anaheim, Calif., said hours before the deal reached fruition. "Honestly, it's an honor and I look at it as a good thing. If other teams are wanting me and are willing to trade some of their key players and future players for me, it's a compliment."
Francisco is batting .250 with 10 homers and 33 RBIs. He upgrades Philadelphia's bench, which has lacked a solid, right-handed hitter.

[Xpertcapper]

Mariners acquire reliever


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Associated Press

SEATTLE -- The busy Seattle Mariners acquired right-handed reliever Robert Manuel from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for outfielder Wladimir Balentien on Wednesday.
Mariners general manager Jack Zdurienick's second trade of the day was for a 26-year-old pitcher with three games of major league experience as a reliever -- all in the last three weeks. Manuel has just 40 games of experience above Double-A.
Seattle earlier added shortstop Jack Wilson and right-hander Ian Snell from Pittsburgh for shortstop Ronny Cedeno, catcher Jeff Clement and three minor leaguers.
Seattle designated Balentien for assignment on Sunday. The 25-year-old had struggled as Seattle's left fielder following a season-ending injury to Endy Chavez, hitting .213 with 13 RBIs in 56 games.
The Reds needed an outfielder because of injuries. Right fielder Jay Bruce has a broken wrist, and left fielder Chris Dickerson went on the disabled list Monday with a shoulder injury.
Balentien was at his home in Arizona after being designated for assignment. The Reds expect him to join the team before the start of a series against Colorado on Friday.
Manager Dusty Baker said he'll work him into the lineup slowly.
"He's strong," Baker said. "He's a little bit rough. He hadn't played that much lately. He has some tools. He hasn't played in a while, so I might take a few days to get him in the lineup."
Balentien got his first substantial time in the majors last year with Seattle and batted .201 with seven homers and 24 RBIs. He doesn't draw many walks or steal many bases.

[Dexter]

hey xpert - was that your writeup earlier about "squares"?

[Xpertcapper]

Kansas City (Z. Greinke) @ Baltimore (C. Tillman)

Play: Baltimore ML +121 ($100.00 to win $121.00)



ytd:
3-0, +$350.00

ytd:
4-0, +$471.00

[G's pks]

Good call on Balt...

[Xpertcapper]

Good call on Balt...

[IcE]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Xpertcapper
Kansas City (Z. Greinke) @ Baltimore (C. Tillman)

Play: Baltimore ML +121 ($100.00 to win $121.00)



ytd:
3-0, +$350.00



ytd:
4-0, +$471.00

[Xpertcapper]

[dvb02]

Xpert, another nice job

[Xpertcapper]

The only LEAN i have as of now is San Francisco. I will update if anything changes.

[Xpertcapper]

I also have a small LEAN to Colorado game#2 and St. Louis.

[Xpertcapper]

Updated LEANS:

San Francisco

[dvb02]

xpert, did you decide on no games tonight??

[Xpertcapper]

No 4:10 pst plays

[dvb02]

thanks and good luck tonight

[Xpertcapper]

No plays for me today/tonight. San Francisco was the only real lean I had and in the last half hour I eliminated them as a official play. I will post some potential plays for tomorrows games later tonight. If the team doesnt meet my requirements throughtout the day just before game time I do not play it. I dont play games just to have action, I play them to make money with the highest probability of winning that wager. BOL

ytd:
4-0, +$471.00

[IcE]

No plays for me today/tonight. San Francisco was the only real lean I had and in the last half hour I eliminated them as a official play. I will post some potential plays for tomorrows games later tonight. If the team doesnt meet my requirements throughtout the day just before game time I do not play it. I dont play games just to have action, I play them to make money with the highest probability of winning that wager. BOL

ytd:
4-0, +$471.00

True capper

[dvb02]

True capper

I completely agree!!!!!!!!!!!

[Xpertcapper]

Early leans show i may have 2-3 plays for tomorrow. See you then!

[Xpertcapper]

Have my eyes on 2-3 different plays for today. Will post later.

[Xpertcapper]

Early plays will be posted around 345 pst