MLB - Tuesday, 8/13/19

billyloco · 08-13-19, 07:46 AM

Git er DONE LT!!

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 07:49 AM

7 MLB Plays Tuesday

7 MLB Plays Tuesday

Reds / Nationals OVER 10.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cubs / Phillies OVER 10 -110 (Heritage)
Dodgers / Marlins UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Mariners / Tigers UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Rockies -122 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Rockies UNDER 12 +100 (Heritage)
Athletics / Giants OVER 8 -102 (5 Dimes)

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 08:37 AM

Why all the love for the Rockies? The public LOVED them yesterday, and you jumped on board too!

They are sputtering, and the DBacks are surging and playing with confidence. To top it off, they have the SP advantage tonight as well, as Gallon has been really good, and the Rockies have never seen him before. Just trying to understand this......I had DBacks as slight favorite.

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Why all the love for the Rockies? The public LOVED them yesterday, and you jumped on board too!

They are sputtering, and the DBacks are surging and playing with confidence. To top it off, they have the SP advantage tonight as well, as Gallon has been really good, and the Rockies have never seen him before. Just trying to understand this......I had DBacks as slight favorite.

I actually have Rockies with a pretty big starting pitcher edge, Gray about 15% above average, Gallon about 2% below average. Add in offensive advantage and I end up with Colorado 59% (-144).

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 08:56 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

To top it off, they have the SP advantage tonight as well

How do you come to that conclusion? It does not even look that close in favor of Gray IMO.

Dogball · 08-13-19, 09:11 AM

LT. GL

what numbers you have for Dodgers and Braves
Also any impressions on Dodgers to win NL at -105 ? How are they getting beat ?

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

How do you come to that conclusion? It does not even look that close in favor of Gray IMO.

Hmmmmm......Gallon has been impressive, giving up only 2 runs in his last 3 starts spanning 19 innings. Even more impressive, his WHIP is 0.74 over that span, barely giving up any hard contact according to statcast. 23 Strikeouts over that span too, so guys aren't putting balls in play. Gray has always been an overvalued pitcher in my books.......although to your credit, he's been pretty good over his last 10 starts or so. But what really stands out, is the success Arizona has had vs Gray over the last 3 years. 5.18 ERA, with a 1.40 WHIP over 33 innings. Peralta hitting .429 over 21 ABs, Lamb .353 over 17 ABs, Marte .375 over 16 ABs, Walker .375 over 8 ABs, Escobar .333 over 9 ABs.......all guys who will be in the lineup tonight and licking their chops.

Just curious where you are getting Rockies -144? Does you model account for recent form? Just watch a Rockies game, they have basically packed it in.

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by Dogball

LT. GL

what numbers you have for Dodgers and Braves
Also any impressions on Dodgers to win NL at -105 ? How are they getting beat ?

I have to re-run Dodgers with Kershaw scratched. As for Futures, I like Dodgers to win World Series and yes, -105 just to win Pennant looks good.

I only get Braves 52% (-108)

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Hmmmmm......Gallon has been impressive, giving up only 2 runs in his last 3 starts spanning 19 innings. Even more impressive, his WHIP is 0.74 over that span, barely giving up any hard contact according to statcast. 23 Strikeouts over that span too, so guys aren't putting balls in play. Gray has always been an overvalued pitcher in my books.......although to your credit, he's been pretty good over his last 10 starts or so. But what really stands out, is the success Arizona has had vs Gray over the last 3 years. 5.18 ERA, with a 1.40 WHIP over 33 innings. Peralta hitting .429 over 21 ABs, Lamb .353 over 17 ABs, Marte .375 over 16 ABs, Walker .375 over 8 ABs, Escobar .333 over 9 ABs.......all guys who will be in the lineup tonight and licking their chops.

Just curious where you are getting Rockies -144? Does you model account for recent form? Just watch a Rockies game, they have basically packed it in.

I do not care about head-to-head so Arizona success vs. Gray means nothing to me. Model uses long term numbers with added weight put on current season. Notice is said SEASON, so last 10 games or last few starts are meaningless to me unless there is some legit underlying reason for change in form.

Also Gallen looks like a prime fade for now BECAUSE of his 2.40 ERA, as his xFIP is nearly two full runs higher at 4.32

The ERA is skewed by an unsustainable .247 BABIP allowed and 82.6% strand rate, plus he has had poor control with 4.57 walks per 9 and you have a guy with a hideous 33.3% groundball rate pitching at Coors.

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 09:32 AM

No Action on Marlins Under, now at 6 plays.

Dogball · 08-13-19, 09:34 AM

Thanks LT. i didn’t realize he was scratched.
Is he injured ?

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I do not care about head-to-head so Arizona success vs. Gray means nothing to me. Model uses long term numbers with added weight put on current season. Notice is said SEASON, so last 10 games or last few starts are meaningless to me unless there is some legit underlying reason for change in form.

Also Gallen looks like a prime fade for now BECAUSE of his 2.40 ERA, as his xFIP is nearly two full runs higher at 4.32

The ERA is skewed by an unsustainable .247 BABIP allowed and 82.6% strand rate, plus he has had poor control with 4.57 walks per 9 and you have a guy with a hideous 33.3% groundball rate pitching at Coors.

Head to head matchups are meaningless to you? Interesting to say the least!
This is the time of the year, you may want to consider adjusting the model, just like in NBA once tanking rolls around in Feb-Mar. When you can find opportunities to play teams streaking and playing for a playoff spot against teams who are just playing out the stretch, and get + money on top of that, especially when going against an average pitcher at best, you take advantage of the opportunity. Yesterday, I got Cleveland, Arizona and Tampa Bay ALL at + money. 3 surging teams, playing 3 sputtering teams playing out the stretch, going against 3 average arms.........couldn't believe the books hung these lines!

Goodluck to you sir.......you know as well as I do, an MLB game can go a lot of different ways. I just feel more comfortable with the + instead of the -

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by Dogball

Thanks LT. i didn’t realize he was scratched.
Is he injured ?

No, flip-flopped with May, Kershaw now goes tomorrow.

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Head to head matchups are meaningless to you? Interesting to say the least!
This is the time of the year, you may want to consider adjusting the model, just like in NBA once tanking rolls around in Feb-Mar. When you can find opportunities to play teams streaking and playing for a playoff spot against teams who are just playing out the stretch, and get + money on top of that, especially when going against an average pitcher at best, you take advantage of the opportunity. Yesterday, I got Cleveland, Arizona and Tampa Bay ALL at + money. 3 surging teams, playing 3 sputtering teams playing out the stretch, going against 3 average arms.........couldn't believe the books hung these lines!

Goodluck to you sir.......you know as well as I do, an MLB game can go a lot of different ways. I just feel more comfortable with the + instead of the -

Head to head is meaningless because either A) the sample size is too small or B) in cases with larger samples, if goes back too many years to be meaningful. That is why I am a full body of work guy with player ratings.

Also I don't care about streaks, again, season-to-date all that matters. In fact streaks often create value on opposite side of streak as it is more likely they are just variance than the books having a poor handle on the teams. And in the rare cases where it is the latter, the model should recognize it.

And I do have special filters for the last month of the season for pro sports that adjust for "tanking" teams.

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 10:07 AM

OK, I'm with you. In that case, you shouldn't have much of an opinion on Gallon then, as he's only throw 41 big league innings. Too small of a sample size for a model to be able to get a correct read on him. Plus, his ground ball rate is a little skewed from his first couple starts, the ground ball rate has been over 50% in his last 3 starts.

Again, good luck! You may hit this, and I'll come back and congratulate you!

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

OK, I'm with you. In that case, you shouldn't have much of an opinion on Gallon then, as he's only throw 41 big league innings. Too small of a sample size for a model to be able to get a correct read on him. Plus, his ground ball rate is a little skewed from his first couple starts, the ground ball rate has been over 50% in his last 3 starts.

Again, good luck! You may hit this, and I'll come back and congratulate you!

I use various projection sources for rookie pitchers when they come into the league so they have a base for the model. And I did say that I have Gallen just 2% below average, it is not as if he has a horrific rating, I was just pointing out how flawed ERA is.

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 11:41 AM

Cant understand why the Tigers are -160ish at just about every shop. Sure Boyd is your #1, and sure Seattle sucks and so has Kikuchi.....but cmon -160 on the anemic Tigers? Your telling me if the Tigers and Mariners face off in this situation 100 times, the Tigers are winning about 62 or 63% of the time? Not a chance.

Whats your price on this one LT?

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Cant understand why the Tigers are -160ish at just about every shop. Sure Boyd is your #1, and sure Seattle sucks and so has Kikuchi.....but cmon -160 on the anemic Tigers? Your telling me if the Tigers and Mariners face off in this situation 100 times, the Tigers are winning about 62 or 63% of the time? Not a chance.

Whats your price on this one LT?

I actually have Tigers 66% (-194)

I have Boyd in elite class at a tad over 30% above average, imagine if he pitched for a real team.

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 12:09 PM

WOW......so I guess your pounding the Tigers, since your getting about 35 cents of value?
Good Luck man.

NBAtony · 08-13-19, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I actually have Tigers 66% (-194)

I have Boyd in elite class at a tad over 30% above average, imagine if he pitched for a real team.

Love Tigers today too!

They first popped up on my radar as Seattle traveling across multiple time zones

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

WOW......so I guess your pounding the Tigers, since your getting about 35 cents of value?
Good Luck man.

No because I never lay more than -150

Also, do not think of the difference between -163 and -194 as 31 cents, but rather as 4%. So difference between -163 and -194 is same percent difference as +100 to -117 even though latter is just 17 cents.

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 01:10 PM

GOt It.......so I'm guessing you need to see a minimum of 20 cents difference in order to pull the trigger.

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 03:45 PM

After all that Gallen talk, Rockies scratched Gray so No Action on Colorado and Under. Down to 4 plays for now but about to add 1 or 2 so stand by.

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 04:03 PM

2 MLB Additions

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Reds / Nationals OVER 10.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cubs / Phillies OVER 10 -110 (Heritage)
Dodgers / Marlins UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage) (re-bet after pitching change)
Mariners / Tigers UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Twins / Brewers UNDER 10 -110 (Heritage)
Athletics / Giants OVER 8 -102 (5 Dimes)

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 04:55 PM

Really liking my position on Gallen at +114 now.

Goodluck on your card tonight!

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Really liking my position on Gallen at +114 now.

Goodluck on your card tonight!

Arizona re-opened as favorites. Did you bet Action and where did you bet the play?

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Arizona re-opened as favorites. Did you bet Action and where did you bet the play?

I apologize, Im at +115 and got that with 5d earlier this morning. Gallen must start, action with Rockies.

LT Profits · 08-13-19, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

I apologize, Im at +115 and got that with 5d earlier this morning. Gallen must start, action with Rockies.

So you do not get +115, you get new price. Action does not lock in price, it only means you still get action in the event of a pitching change,

Regul8er · 08-13-19, 08:28 PM

Your right.....it changed to -130, not sure what I was thinking. Good start....hopefully Gallen hangs onto the lead.

LT Profits · 08-14-19, 05:42 AM

UGH! 0-6 night slows my momentum and pit me back over -20.

44 Mag · 08-14-19, 05:52 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Reds / Nationals OVER 10.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cubs / Phillies OVER 10 -110 (Heritage)
Dodgers / Marlins UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage) (re-bet after pitching change)
Mariners / Tigers UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Twins / Brewers UNDER 10 -110 (Heritage)
Athletics / Giants OVER 8 -102 (5 Dimes)

Originally posted by LT Profits

UGH! 0-8 night slows my momentum and pit me back over -20.

Boss, it's only 6, not 8 ??? I've been there.....

LT Profits · 08-14-19, 06:01 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

Boss, it's only 6, not 8 ??? I've been there.....

6, there was No Action on Rockies and Under with Gray scratched.

Regul8er · 08-14-19, 06:17 AM

Get em back tonight LT.....happens to all of us. Still cant believe that Detroit line.....crazy that I get Seattle at +146 against the lowly Tigers.