Mafia Presents the Tigers' Milk Special (One for the Poor)

[cocknocker]

Here's the skinny. We have the Tigers on a plane right now headed to New York to face the Bombers in a 3 game tilt. The last time the Tigers went to Gotham they swept the Bombers. But that was in an old stadium with a rotation of Robertson, Bonderman, and Rogers. None of those guys will toe the bump for the Tigs in this one.

French, Verlander, and Jackson face Burnette, Sabathia, and Chamberlain. Alright, the Tigers may have a shot at pulling this off... What recession? With a mere splitting of money like amoebas I think that a guy with a small bankroll could make quite a bit of money off of this series. I think that we can figure out a way to work with $500.00 together and make these plays work. I need the appropriate information to substantiate the project, for there will be some out there that will be hitting this series up HEAVY like I am. I have put up a few stats, but we need the scientific shit now. I have 2 scientists and an astute record keeper that I would like to work with on this project.

Everything is based upon the last three games:

Starting pitching WHIP

Tigers 1.250
Yanks 2.053 (Dead last in the majors)

Runs surrendered by starters

Tigers 5
Yanks 15

Advantage Tigers

Bullpen WHIP

Tigers 1.714
Yanks 2.195

Advantage Tigers

Batting average

Tigers .289
Yanks .287

Advantage Tigers

Slugging %

Tigers .526
Yanks .500

Advantage Tigers

Home Runs

Tigers 5
Yanks 6

Advantage Yanks

Walks

Tigers 14
Yanks 11

Advantage Tigers

I sniff a false favorite.

Tigers' Milk Special (One for the Poor)

Bet#1 Tigers+190 Series Wager vs Yankees for 2/17/09 through 7/19/09

Bet#2 Tigers+180 Friday 2/17/09
Tigers-1.5 RRL NO LINE

Bet#3 Tigers +ANYTHING 2/18/09
Tigers1.5 RRL NO LINE* only if no Tiger win by 2 in #1 bet

Bet#4 Tigers+ANYTHING 2/19/09
Tigers-1.5 RRL NO LINE* If no Tiger win by 2 in #1 or #2 bet

Once a RRL bet is won, no more RRL bets are to be made after that as the improbable will already have happened


Each wager is sure to be at +150 or more, so I'm just gonna keep pluggin' away play after play until it is over. Each win will be like winning one and half wagers. Each loss will be like losing only one wager. With odds like that I'm down for it. My buddy has a bankroll of a mere $500.00. I would like to employ the services of the crew to work on this as a project.

I need a math wizard, so I would like to have Panekkk figure out the amounts of the wagers for appropriate. And to pin point any advantage that I may have missed with respect to players matchups..steals, pitcher vs hitter advantages, historical etc. I already know that the teams are 5-5 in games in New York.

I would like solobass to work on the figures like ground ball outs/air outs, Park Factors, shit that has no players' name attached to the formula. This guy is the only person who can figure out the information at KillerSports.com. I want to know the difference of runs scored as a result of being at the new stadium, how the dimensions affect the hitting of both teams, compare how the Tigers would fare in a stdium of like dimensions, etc.

Genix please keep us informed of the weather and injuries, as well as post game links to information from the local newspapers for the following days' game. Also peek at the personal/blog page for the pitchers of record for both sides. Although Panekkk will be making the amounts of the wagers, I would like you to be responsible for keeping the record and the ongoing tally from $500.00.


Tigers' Milk Special (One for the Poor)


* Remember boys, it's a very tight number that we're working with here.

[Panekkkk]

I'll put a lil together tonight

[Spaceviews]

I'm poor....& I Know a good thing when I see it- Lets break a leg!!
I'll follow this train........

[cnleaf]

I like this project idea to have mafia involved. I am following ur guys. lets work it out.

[dreamjob]

I'm poor....& I Know a good thing when I see it- Lets break a leg!!
I'll follow this train........

Me too! Let's make some money!!!!

[Panekkkk]

Ok, so looking over things I give a slight edge to the Yanks only because of game 1 being such a big question mark. If French comes out lights out then Detroit wins this series. Yanks got rocked by the Angels but are the best home team in the second half in the last 5 years in all of MLB with a winning percentage around .600 (or second to Phillies, cannot remember exactly).

French vs. Burnett
French opens the series here. A rookie with very little experience playing in one of the most hitter friendly parks. French's numbers in Triple A Toledo were very impressive last year with a 1.11 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB ratio. So far this year in the majors his WHIP is very low but he has almost no strikeout power. This could be problematic against a heavy-hitting Yanks team in a hitter friendly park. I'm not sure what the stats look like, but I'm sure that NY can be intimidating for rookies (anyone got some numbers on rookies' first game at Yank stadium?). Only Inge and Ordonez have numbers worth mentioning against Burnett. Burnett has really locked in over his last few games and is looking scary good, averaging only 4.6 hits in his last 5 starts.

Verlander vs. Sabathia
Verlander's numbers against the Yanks are very good, giving up very little in terms of slugging percentage and therefore very few extra-base hits. DET's numbers against Sabathia are actually pretty nice with Laird, Cabrera, Ordonez and Polanco leading the pack. Better yet, Verlander, although much weaker on the road, shines in Day games while Sabathia has been rather horrid in Day games so far this year. Big advantage goes to DET in this matchup and therefore the bet values should follow suit.

Jackson vs. Chamberlain
Another possible advantage goes to the Yanks in the final game of the series. Surprisingly, Chamberlain has only pitched one start against DET but was basically lights out going 7 strong and giving up one run on 3 hits and 3 walks. His 4 innings of work in relief against the Tigers have been equally as succesful. Tigers will counter with Jackson who has not fared so well against A-Rod, Jeter, Matsui and Swisher (all slugging over .540 vs. Jackson).

[Panekkkk]

I'm really not sure last three game stats mean anything prior to the ASG. I give the edge to the Yanks but the value is there for Det to maybe steal this series. For me, it all depends on DET taking game 1. I propose somewhat of the following but am not so confident about it. If you think they can win CK then this might be the way to go

$125 DET to win series +190

$50 DET ML GM1 +188
$25 DET RRL GM1

If they win game 1:

$150 DET ML GM2
$75 DET RRL GM2

If they lose game 1:

Not sure what I would do here, maybe abandon and hope the series bet hits or go heavy on game 2 (pretty much same as proposed if they win to make the money back) and then bet against DET in game 3.

[cnleaf]

Weather:for the first game on Friday
Partly Cloudy at 80° F and 64 percent humidity.
Wind from the N and calm at 0 mph.

[cocknocker]

I think that the Tigers will win game 3 with Jackson on the bump. It's starting to look pretty good in here and I can start seeing the project materializing. I will snooze on this a little bit and get back to it. Outside of the obvious wagers for the Tigers tomorrow, here's what else I will be playing.


Blue Birds-130 (Bucholz can't be sharp from the giddy-up)




* I also played the Blue Birds-105 for the series

[cocknocker]

That's good Tiger weather, cnleaf!

[cnleaf]

I want to contribute some of my homework to the mafia.
Pitcher Record:
Starting Pitcher WHIP:
French (DET): 1.36
A Burnett(NYY): 1.38

Power Rating:
DET: +129
NYY: -129

Opening Line:
DET: +188
NYY: -206 (now going up to -215 on some books)

Advantage: huge advantage on DET

Bullpen WHIP:
Tigers WHIP: 1.543
Yankees WHIP: 1.222
Advantage: NYY

Past Moneyline record:
AJ Burnett 0-2 as -150 or more last season and also 0-2 as -150 or more this season.

Hope the above information is what you need. GL.

[curious]

Ok, so looking over things I give a slight edge to the Yanks only because of game 1 being such a big question mark. If French comes out lights out then Detroit wins this series. Yanks got rocked by the Angels but are the best home team in the second half in the last 5 years in all of MLB with a winning percentage around .600 (or second to Phillies, cannot remember exactly).

I was looknig at the Yankees after the all star break last 5 years too. They are always much improved post all star break.

I was looking at $ won per game, not win loss, so they weren't THE best, but they were very good.

[cocknocker]

What I want to know is the fly ball outs to ground ball outs ratios for both pitchers. I am thinking of taking a total as well. But solo's out there romancin' and we're in here handicapping! So that part of the equation is on hold until I get the information. And piss on the Yankees and their second half record. That is one thing. They can be all of that. Just not in this series!

[curious]

I like a parlay of DET +190 and the Yankees team total UNDER 5 (if you can find it)

otherwise i like DET+190 and DET/NYY UNDER 9 1/2 +105

should pay +500 2 units to win 10

[danrman]

here's my little ol' opinion of the milk series... det wins on fri.. yanks will be looking ahead to beating verlander cause last time he beat them and gave up no runs in 7 innings... then the yanks win on sat... sabathia has stunk in day games.. put that together w/ verlanders great stats vs yanks last time he faced them and you have enough wise guy money on det for the yanks to win.. dats all i got on da drink for the po series for now.. det on fri and yanks on sat.. c-yazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Panekkkk]

What I want to know is the fly ball outs to ground ball outs ratios for both pitchers. I am thinking of taking a total as well. But solo's out there romancin' and we're in here handicapping! So that part of the equation is on hold until I get the information. And piss on the Yankees and their second half record. That is one thing. They can be all of that. Just not in this series!

Yeah, I was trying to find that info for Frenchie and I couldn't find it. I'm not sure if he is a groundout or flyball pitcher. With him have so few K's so far in the majors, mind you that the sample size is small, if he is a flyout type of guy he is going to get rocked.

[Panekkkk]

here's my little ol' opinion of the milk series... det wins on fri.. yanks will be looking ahead to beating verlander cause last time he beat them and gave up no runs in 7 innings... then the yanks win on sat... sabathia has stunk in day games.. put that together w/ verlanders great stats vs yanks last time he faced them and you have enough wise guy money on det for the yanks to win.. dats all i got on da drink for the po series for now.. det on fri and yanks on sat.. c-yazzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

All the money will be on the Yanks regardless. Especially with Sabathia on the mound, I can gaurantee you that, Verlander or not. Especially if Det takes today's game.

[Beastxxx]

I am on with you guys with this one as I am poor so lets make some money.

Here is some info on the first game if it helps.
Tigers at Yanks

French's ability to stay cool under pressure is one reason he's up here in the first place. He held the Royals to a lone run over 6 1/3 innings in his last start on July 8 for his first Major League win.

Despite posting a 5.73 ERA against the Tigers last season, Burnett won both of his starts against them -- but has an 8.03 ERA against them for his career.

[Panekkkk]

Holding the Royals to one run is not really telling at all. Unfortunately, today will be his big test to see if he can keep his cool or not. How will he fare with two runners on and A-Rod or Teixera at the dish?

[Panekkkk]

French in his last outing against the royals --Groundouts:Flyouts = 8-9

Flyballs (flyballs, linedrives and pop-ups) in his last 2 outings (6 IP and 4 IP - 15 and 15 respectively)

He is giving up A LOT of fly balls. Too many considering the low number of innings pitched.

[Panekkkk]

At least the weather is somewhat prepped to keep the ball in the park, but in Yankee stadium I don't think it matters much (light wind SE)

http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

[cocknocker]

I like a parlay of DET +190 and the Yankees team total UNDER 5 (if you can find it)

otherwise i like DET+190 and DET/NYY UNDER 9 1/2 +105

should pay +500 2 units to win 10

Holy smokes! That's got to be worth $250.00 just to see! I'm gonna carjack you curious for the Tiggers and the under parlay. And I never do parlays, but that brings back some pretty long bread for a little yeast and flour...

I'm still waiting on my stats to get updated here on Tigers' Milk Network. The reporters and news crew are gettin hemp stoned early in the morning. With there being a recession and all it's hard enough to get guys to donate their time to charity. But meanwhile....

Guys are out there slapping their television sets, trying to get through the interference and pick up our broadcast.

[cocknocker]

French in his last outing against the royals --Groundouts:Flyouts = 8-9

Flyballs (flyballs, linedrives and pop-ups) in his last 2 outings (6 IP and 4 IP - 15 and 15 respectively)

He is giving up A LOT of fly balls. Too many considering the low number of innings pitched.

So what do you think? I mean is the wind gonna knock some of that down? This dude has had o/u lines of 8.5 and 9. But 9.5 is going too far with the love that we're getting from the world. The 9 line he had that went over the total was acheived at the Metrodome. Why does that matter? The Metrodome has the number 1 scoring park factor in MLB. This game is outdoors.

[thegenix]

Just checking in guys. Looks like a great thread so far! Waiting for the unit totals before I get the tally going.

[thegenix]

Injury Report:

DET:
Josh Anderson is questionable for the July 17-19 series at the Yanks.

NYY:
Damaso Marte was placed on the 15-day DL.

[thegenix]

Weather Update for July 17th game:

Forecast : 82°F
Feels like: 84°F

Sunset: 8:24 PM

Probability of Precip:20 %
Spectator Index: 8
UV Index: Low

Wind: From the SE at 8 mph

The wind will be blowing from left field towards home plate. At only 8mph I doubt it will have too much of an effect.

[thegenix]

Tigers Milk Special Project
Starting bankroll: $500
Record (W-L-P): 0-0-0

Pending plays for Friday (Waiting on Units):
Tigers+190 Series Wager vs Yankees for 7/17/09 through 7/19/09
Tigers+180
Tigers-1.5 RRL NO LINE

[Beastxxx]

Holding the Royals to one run is not really telling at all. Unfortunately, today will be his big test to see if he can keep his cool or not. How will he fare with two runners on and A-Rod or Teixera at the dish?

Just posting some research thats all. I want in on the bread on this one too so I am looking at you seasoned players for your insight.

[dreamjob]

How do you find out who's umpiring the game? That could help with the total.

[Beastxxx]

Tigers +210 ML
1.5 +100 RL
as of Now

[Beastxxx]

How do you find out who's umpiring the game? That could help with the total.

Are you shitting me? Can you find info like that?
If you can let us know as some umpires are way to wide in the zone

[dreamjob]

Are you shitting me? Can you find info like that?
If you can let us know as some umpires are way to wide in the zone

No someone on another thread is betting the over 7.5 on Col/SD. I think its a pretty safe bet. Someone chimed in and said that Fletcher I think that was his name was umpiring the game and 82% of games this season have been under 3-14-2. I was like

[Beastxxx]

Here is a nice parlay
Detroit ML and Under 10 runs
+520

[ram1502]

You can find this at covers.com in the MLB matchups. However, the umpire for this game either isn't decided upon yet or at the very least isn't posted yet.

[Beastxxx]

Thanks Dreamjob.
If you find a line on Umpires post it here dude.