Checking in on my MLB Futures
About three months ago I wrote about my MLB futures plays. Then the season began and I haven’t really thought about them since. With up to 15 baseball games to keep me busy on most days, my attention span is way too suspect to be concerned with wagers that take six months to cash. The All-Star break is just what I needed to touch base with my futures, as well as to look for any midseason futures that might jump out at me. And surprise, surprise…all six of my plays are very much alive!
AL EAST
My favorite division, the AL East, has it all – A perennial powerhouse (Boston), a consummate villain (New York), hometown heroes (Tampa Bay), Canadians (Toronto) and a team that may never have another winning season again (Baltimore).
I picked the defending AL champ Rays to win the East (+465), and at 6.5 games back, they are actually my longest shot at this point. The thing is that I still feel like this young team stands a pretty good chance to catch up to Boston and New York. They’re currently at +625 to win the division.
Toronto began the year on fire, and they gave my Canadian friends something to smile about. But as most of us knew would happen, they faded quickly. If you’re a sucker for punishment you can currently grab the Jays at +4,500. I’m sure that the Vernon Wells Haters Club would welcome the added memberships.
The East contenders
The Yankees may have the third best record in baseball, but something about them just seems off this year. They just don’t scare me like they have in the past. The Red Sox, on the other hand, scare the hell out of me.
Big years from Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, Tim Wakefield, Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon have the Sox in a familiar spot atop the East. They didn’t even skip a beat with David Ortiz’s disastrous start, and don’t look now, but Big Papi is starting to warm up. Before the season started, Boston was +125, and you can grab them now at -160, which isn’t a bad price considering that they look like the team to beat right now.
As for the Rays, I’m banking that the 2008 late season magic makes a return. If they continue to receive the run production from Jason Bartlett, Carl Crawford, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, they will be in every game. What they need is for the pitching staff to get it together.
Rookie righty Jeff Niemann has been solid (8-4, 3.73). Last year’s wonder kid David Price has struggled, as have Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir. The bullpen has been improving, and that was what really pushed them into the World Series last year. Hopefully they can make it back.
AL CENTRAL
The bad news for anyone who played a future on the favored Cleveland Indians at +145 is that they are in dead last, 14 games behind Detroit. The good news is that you can play them right now at +5000. I’m sorry. I’m sure that didn’t make you feel any better.
I predicted that the Tigers would rebound from last year’s deplorable 74-88 campaign, and they have quite nicely. They are currently 48-39, up 3.5 games on the White Sox. They are -140 to win the Central today, and I’ll probably get a piece of that as well.
At the plate, Miguel Cabrera is having a monster year, and out of nowhere, Brandon Inge has been going nuts. On the mound, Edwin Jackson has been one of the top acquisitions in baseball and Justin Verlander is back to his old dominant form. Fernando Rodney is 19-for-19 in save opportunities, although I have no idea how with his 3.92 ERA. His stats are indicative of most Tiger relievers, as their bullpen ranks towards the bottom of the league once again. That could be trouble as the season drudges along, and possible reason to take a look at Chicago (+270) or Minnesota (+310). I’m going to stick with my chances on Magnum’s favorite team.
AL WEST
The Angels were -155 and the Field was +130. I took my chances with the triple-headed monster of Texas, Seattle and Oakland. For most of the first half I was feeling pretty good about myself. Then the Angels finished out the first half with a 24-12 run and are a game and a half ahead of the Rangers, and the Mariners sit four back. I’m still in decent shape, but I understand that LAA owns the West, winning four of the past five seasons.
The Angels are now -220 to reclaim their division. That’s not too steep when you take the division history into account. But I’m stubborn and I’ll have no part of it. I’m going to ride out my Field play, and throw a bit more on Texas at +270.
The Angels and Rangers are the 2nd and 3rd most profitable teams in the Majors. L.A. is +12.24 and Texas +11.11. I’m hoping that Texas’ exciting lineup featuring Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz, Hank Blalock and Ian Kinsler can outslug their opponents all the way to the West title. “Hope” being the key word.
NL EAST
I wasn’t overly concerned with the favored Mets at +105. For me the decision boiled down to Philadelphia or Florida. When it came down to it, I went with the Phillies at +165, and they have continued to impress. They find themselves at 48-38 with a four game lead over the Marlins. The injury-prone and heartless Mets are 6.5 back in fourth place.
The Phils are now available at -250, and I see no reason that I shouldn’t pile on for more winnings. Who can stop them? Florida? Too inconsistent. Atlanta? No. Mets? I don’t think so. Washington? Perhaps.
Raul Ibanez
Philadelphia has been getting production from all the usual suspects as last year, and added Raul Ibanez who is in the middle of a career year (.309, 22 hr). If Cole Hamels can get back on track, it will be an easy run to the playoffs.
NL CENTRAL
I’m not sure what I was thinking when I wrote “I think Houston will win the Central” back in April, but at only 3.5 back I’m feeling pretty good about it. Maybe I slept at a Holiday Inn Express that night.
Not only that, but I took them as part of a Field play with Cincinnati (5 back) and Pittsburgh (done). St. Louis is leading the pack right now at 49-42. Milwaukee is 2.5 back, and the Cubs are tied with Houston 3.5 behind. Chicago was a heavy favorite at -225, and I’m pretty sure that the inevitable sweeping panic is in full effect in Chi-Town.
Present odds have St. Louis +120, Chicago +200, Milwaukee +300 and Houston +900. When these teams go head to head it’s entirely too unpredictable for me to make any money. The NL Central is like my baseball Rubik’s Cube – I just can’t figure it out. And if I end up hitting with my Houston prediction, it only means that I know even less than I thought I did.
Go Houston?
NL WEST
With Manny, without Manny, the Dodgers to win the West at only +105, in this horrid division, was the easiest play I’ll see all year. Up 7 games already, some books aren’t even offering odds on L.A. winning the division, but rather on how many games they will win by (TheGreek, 7.5 games). But if you happen to have an inordinate amount of flow lying around and still want to play them to win at 5dimes, you can get them for the lovely price of -5,000. Have at it. I’ll happily stick with my opening odds of +105. If only they were all this easy.
