Mr. Crumbs Leans for Wednesday 7/8/09

solobass · 07-08-09, 09:54 AM

top o' the mornin to ya, especially you west coasters. just checked the roll......jed's a millionaire! my 4 teamer (DET, LAD, TB, BOS) parlay hit, and my picks were 10-5 calling every game yesterday. that brings my record to 38-33 calling all games 53.5%. again, do i have money on every game? no, but i bet on a lot of the games.

the one thing i have found about pythagorean expectation is last place teams that are underperforming even compared to what they should be have slightly skewed numbers. i have to find a way to calculate around that, or else the nats and wahoos will be a play more often than they should be. also, like CK i have been blown away by the sorry state of most bullpens......nearly equally atrocious is the doo-doo warmed over that some teams put on the hill every 4 or 5 days. hells bells i might start working on a knuckle ball and give it a shot!

CK regarding your royals pick, very savvy move and good odds for the leading cy young pitcher in the AL. the tigers definitely went all in (more hit and run, better situational bullpen choices, etc) trying to win last night because they know their chances are much slimmer today especially with luke french making his 2nd mlb start.

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-08-09, 10:01 AM

GL today fellas

sweetjones55 · 07-08-09, 10:03 AM

That Marlins pick looks juicy. 60% are on the Giants yet the line keeps dropping from -129 Giants to -119.

Panekkkk · 07-08-09, 10:08 AM

I laid on the Dodgers heavy. I don't care that the Mets are due. Kuroda has <1 WHIP on the road and Perez is coming off a 2 month stint on the DL and he had terrible numbers in his rehab starts giving up 9 walks in 9.2 innings of work. The Mets have gone 18 innings without scoring a run, or something like that. That trend will obviously not continue. They will come out giving all they got so the Over might be a good call as well. But ****, Manny will be pissed for getting ejected and he'll make Perez pay.

cocknocker · 07-08-09, 10:20 AM

The Mets are just a shell of what they normally would be putting on the field. My guess is that they will be a terror in the 2nd half of the season when thy get their starters back. Then that would offset their bad pitching to some extent...They are not a good bet right now. Enough said...

solobass · 07-08-09, 10:30 AM

in geinke's last 7 starts against AL competition the royals are 2-5 in those contests......a cause for pause? if he goes deep and keeps the bullpen spittin sunflower seeds instead of throwing stinkbombs on the field kc looks good. i am doing this game right now.

jellobiafra · 07-08-09, 10:42 AM

I'm on KC and FLA today. Good luck!

xxdjstriderxx · 07-08-09, 11:46 AM

gl sir.

solobass · 07-08-09, 11:47 AM

here we go again ladies and gents

PIT+150
ATL-103
COL-175 (good parlay partner, big difference between the scores today)
ARI-160 (odds too steep, not much value here)
SF-115
PHI-142
LAD-140
MIL-120 (this game could go either way)
SEA-125
TOR+135 (kazmir's numbers drove down TB score)
KC-130 (i do smell formula betrayal here. kc offense and bullpen might give me formula betrayal here)
BOS-170
CWS-142
NYY-130 (numbers are close, again almost a pick em game)
TEX+115

best of luck and rake in that cash!

solobass · 07-08-09, 11:47 AM

here we go again ladies and gents

PIT+150
ATL-103
COL-175 (good parlay partner, big difference between the scores today)
ARI-160 (odds too steep, not much value here)
SF-115
PHI-142
LAD-140
MIL-120 (this game could go either way)
SEA-125
TOR+135 (kazmir's numbers drove down TB score)
KC-130 (i do smell formula betrayal here. kc offense and bullpen might give me formula betrayal here)
BOS-170
CWS-142
NYY-130 (numbers are close, again almost a pick em game)
TEX+115

best of luck and rake in that cash!

ragiche · 07-08-09, 11:53 AM

HI,guys back from a business trip.Very exhausted though.Missing all of this stuff.
Are there anyone here have a play in the early games?
And CK,If I may ask.Whom you will take in the ATL/CHC or PIT/HOU games,If you are playing them?Have any opinions on these games?
And of course,gonna play CK's 4 picks.

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-08-09, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

No formula for you guys today. if anyone wants the formula for a particular game lt me know and later on I will provide it.

For today's small ball action I like the Blue Jays to take their game with the Rays as they have the advantage at every statistical category with the exception of the bullpen numbers, but so what? They still get the job done. Tallet has never been seen before by the slumping Rays hitters, and Kazmir is an ugly 0-5 at home against the Blue Birds. I have to ride with a perfect trend for sure!

Blue Birds+138

This is simply put, a good spot for theMarlins. The public is all over the Giants today, but the Fish will hold their own and steal a game outhere today. Volstad is due for a correction. It will happen today. This is an early game so it would be sweet to start the day off with a nice win. Let's go Fish!

Marlins+110

The Angels and Rangers are involved in a week longslug fest. This time the Halos get the best of the Rangers and win by a ground rule double in the bottom of the 9th with 2 out. Santana is showing signs of gettin his shit together. The movement is crisp on this one with respect to the line movement.

Angels-135 (my limit for chalk)

Everyone who comes to this thread knows that I have the Royals for the series and by golly damnit, we're gonna get this win today and close out the series for Pappa. Greinke will give me a good 8 innings. This game is VERY important for th Royals. They have ALL of the statistical advantages in this game. It's all a matter of just going out there and getting it done.

Royals-128

So there's MY four..

As always, I am playing both the original form JM plays and the filtered one as well. I do not give out the names of the teams for this system because I paid for it and you didn't. But if you do know the plays then good luck. One of them is an ignorant bet, but I will still take it anyway becuase it looks so un-winnable.

Im not seeing a advantage for the Royals in this game besides their ace on the bump. Can you elaborate?

ragiche · 07-08-09, 12:48 PM

Here are my Booked plays for today's games.

Astros RL (3x) My pick.

Astros FF (5x) My pick.

Bluebirds RRL (2x) Tailing CK.

Yankees RL (3x) My pick.

Angels RL (3x) Tailing CK.

Mariners RL (3x) My pick.

Royals RL (2x) Tailing CK.

Metros ML (3x) My pick.

Marlins ML (2x) Tailing CK.

GL today guys

.

maddogmadden86 · 07-08-09, 12:55 PM

Houston RL i cant see the pirates winning back to back, the Astros bats will give plenty of support for Wandy

ragiche · 07-08-09, 01:10 PM

Here we go.Go astonauts.

maddogmadden86 · 07-08-09, 01:13 PM

lets get it ragichu

cocknocker · 07-08-09, 01:35 PM

Originally posted by MILEHIGHMONSTERS

Im not seeing a advantage for the Royals in this game besides their ace on the bump. Can you elaborate?

Sure no need talking about the pitching since you already know about that

batting average last 3 games

KC .311
DET .227

Advantage KC

Slugging% last 3 games

KC .481
DET .423

Advantage KC

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

KC 1.087
DET 1.889

Advantage KC

What more do you want? Detroit has no clear advantages other than wishes.

Now it's your turn, show me what advantages that Detroit has in this game that I'm not seeing

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-08-09, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Sure no need talking about the pitching since you already know about that

batting average last 3 games

KC .311
DET .227

Advantage KC

Slugging% last 3 games

KC .481
DET .423

Advantage KC

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

KC 1.087
DET 1.889

Advantage KC

What more do you want? Detroit has no clear advantages other than wishes.

Now it's your turn, show me what advantages that Detroit has in this game that I'm not seeing

Thanks for your response and remarks to back up play and gl with it. i personally perfer the total in the game. I think over 8 is just as good a play as the side. Heres my response.

Weather:

74 Degrees, Partly cloudy, 12-17 mph winds blowing out to left-center.

So we have the wind blowing out, and its a comfortable temperature. There is a check.

Pitching Analysis:

Greinke has pitched 2 games vs. Detroit this year and has been nothing short of spectacular. 2 complete games, 1 ER, 1BB, 18SO.

You cant really be any better than that, however, both games were in KC, and i expect the Tigers to get to him a little more this 3rd time around. The ticket here is the home plate umpire. Johnson has an O/U record of 10-4, and has a K:BB ratio of 1.39:1. This is among the lowest ratio's in the league. Greinke has 19BB and 120K's on the season so we can safely say he relies HEAVILY on the strikeout. He may get a little annoyed here when he doesn't get the borderline calls he is used to. Add to all this that Greinke tied his worst outing of the season on Friday allowing 9 hits and 4 runs in 6. I really don't see Greinke mowing the Tigers down again like he did earlier in the season.

Unfortunately for French, he is no Greinke, yet has to deal with the same ump who has a smaller than average strikezone. In his first ML start, he gave up 2 runs on 6 hits in 4 and 2/3. Though the Tigers haven't seen him, there's at least a scouting report out on him. Safe to say, we should see a healthy dose of Tigers bull pen. Chalk up a few runs there.

The Line:

We have a very reasonable total at 8... especially when you consider its an AL park. These 2 teams have averaged 9.25 runs per game in 8 games this season. If we can get 4 from each team we are a winner, and the fact that KC is favoured gives us a probably chance of having a complete 9 innings... unless of course the Tigers get to Greinke

GL CK

cocknocker · 07-08-09, 02:06 PM

You may be right. The total went up to 8.5 with almost 60% of bettors on the under. Excellent!

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-08-09, 02:10 PM

I didnt notice the RLM good eyes it was just my observation on the total. I guess the RLM seals the deal i just dont like to put to much emphasis on the RLM.

cocknocker · 07-08-09, 02:28 PM

RLM will make you only a 50% winner. Understanding why the line is moving will make you a 70% winner

MILEHIGHMONSTERS · 07-08-09, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

RLM will make you only a 50% winner. Understanding why the line is moving will make you a 70% winner

excellent point!

cocknocker · 07-08-09, 03:53 PM

Total of the day!

Wahoos/Pale Hose over 9.5 Get it while it's hot!

ragiche · 07-08-09, 04:27 PM

Congrats to all HOU backers.And this one for us maddogmadden86

.

ragiche · 07-08-09, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by ragiche

Here are my Booked plays for today's games.

Astros RL (3x) My pick.

Astros FF (5x) My pick.

Bluebirds RRL (2x) Tailing CK.

Yankees RL (3x) My pick.

Angels RL (3x) Tailing CK.

Mariners RL (3x) My pick.

Royals RL (2x) Tailing CK.

Metros ML (3x) My pick.

Marlins ML (2x) Tailing CK.

GL today guys

.

2 down and alot to go.It's really a nice feeling winning the 1st game coming off an exhausted trip but it's worth it.Getting paid by the boss and getting paid by the bookies.

ragiche · 07-08-09, 04:38 PM

Oh,CK.Have a wonderful camping trip.I smell bbq and some fishing right now.I'm prefering to your marlins pick.But there are also some fishing involve in a camping trip.

ragiche · 07-08-09, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Total of the day!

Wahoos/Pale Hose over 9.5 Get it while it's hot!

Love this total.Gonna follow you on this one too CK. Over 9.5 (2x)

maddogmadden86 · 07-08-09, 04:46 PM

RAgichu

maddogmadden86 · 07-08-09, 04:47 PM

man i'm mad i missed out on the marlins game due to work oh well

maddogmadden86 · 07-08-09, 04:56 PM

adding Yanks RL +115

curious · 07-08-09, 05:13 PM

My sorry azz plays....

Okay guys, here are my sorry azz plays. Yesterday I got hammered AGAIN.

I'm trying something new, maybe it will work. It's pretty simple. Take the average number of innings scored in last 3 days - average number of innings opponent scored in last 3 days. Calculate the Average and the standard deviation for all teams for this number. Compare the number in all matchups, any matchup where the difference between the two teams is more than 1 standard deviation is a play.

For UNDER/OVER Add the average number of innings scored in to the average number of innings scored on by the opponent. For each matchup + the two numbers and divide by two. Calculate the average and the standard deviation for this number. If any game has a number more than one standard deviation it is an OVER, if the number is less than one standard deviation it is an under.

I know all that mumbo jumbo statistics talk makes you want to kill yourself, so to put it in plain terms, bet on teams that score more than they give up and bet on OVERS on two teams that both score a lot of runs and give up a lot of runs and bet on UNDER on two teams that both don't score runs and don't give up runs. HEY, I said it was simple.

Some of these games may have already started. I am very busy today and don't have time to rework the picks. The odds on some of the totals may be a little off because I couldn't get to sbrlines and I had to decipher them from a stupid site that doesn't just give them in a way you can understand.

Astros -170 1.7 to win 1
Rockies -175 1.75 to win 1
Phillies -145 1.45 to win 1
Dodgers -140 1.4 to win 1
Athletics +200 1 to win 2
Cardinals +130 1 to win 1.3
Yankees -150 1.5 to win 1
WAS/COL UNDER 10.5 +100 1 to win 1
SDG/ARI OVER 9 -130 1.3 to win 1
FLA/SFO UNDER 8.5 -115 1.15 to win 1
LOS/NYM UNDER 9 -115 1.15 to win 1
CLE/CWS OVER 9.5 +100 1 to win 1
TEX/LAA OVER 10 -115 1.15 to win 1

JumpoffJoeBeezy · 07-08-09, 05:18 PM

I cannot believe I'm sweating out this ARZ/SD under 9... 5 Runs in the 8th.. Sheesh.. NO MORE!

Dexter · 07-08-09, 05:34 PM

no time for write ups...

(3x) dodgers -140
(2x) yankees -150
(2x) under yankees 9.5

sweetjones55 · 07-08-09, 05:40 PM

CK, check your PM's. Thanks in advance.