Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday July 6, 2009

[Panekkkk]

CK you jinxed it!!!! Homer for Hinske, 4-1 Jays.

[cocknocker]

Whoops! Spoke too soon! Hinske took care of that, lol!

[cocknocker]

Romero looks to be running low on fuel. You can't give the Bombers any wiggle room. Looks like we may not get the 8 innings out of him

[Tennispro]

Thank god Blue Jays are there for me, huge relief for me today cos i lost a huge play on tennis where a bitch that only needed to get 2 games in the 3de lost 6-1 she got broken 3 times with 40-40 it was a hard lose for me but hey Blue Jays are here for me to soften things up hopefully they get it done for all you guys too.

[Panekkkk]

Romero looks to be running low on fuel. You can't give the Bombers any wiggle room. Looks like we may not get the 8 innings out of him

He got roughed up in the first throwing almost 30 pitches, he'll be gone by the sixth and unfortunately we'll have to rely on the Jays pen. Let us all just hope that BJ doesn't come out. If he does, I resign as a Jays fan. Hopefully, he can get out of the meat of the lineup and the relievers can retire the bottom dwellers in standup fashion.

My 1st 5 hit so I'm at least covered for the total and then some, but an outright Jays win would be nice!

[Pick'nParlays]

should i wait on sf/fla? see if the total gets to 9?

[cs11787]

Hey wasnt Toronto an "A" play today also? I didnt get an email from the man this morning. I believe Washington is an "A" play too no? Thanks.

[Panekkkk]

Nice, 10 pitch inning, he might make it through the 7th!

[Panekkkk]

HHAHAHH Johnny Mac with a dinger off Pettite!!! LOL 1st (and surely only) HR of the year. This may very well be his last year in the majors but he just has stupid good numbers against Pettite. Anyone who thinks past numbers don't predict future performance take heed. I totally called him hitting one too right before the pitch. Good times.

[curious]

solo, you're not gonna believe this, but this guy Enogsiwon is onto a monster dude. After doing the research, I have decided to endorse and play the games. As far as the Texas call last night I got that one from simply reading the line movements, This shit that he has requires no homework which is my favorite type of wager! It's a system that he has going and it's dead on. After you do the research on what he is doing, I think that you will be just as stunned as I am that somehting could be so easy and have such continual positive results.

You got the Texas play from me crackhead!!

[Panekkkk]

CK, regarding the CALIFORNIA UNDERS system, I'm not really sure what research you are doing but this system has been largely NOT profitable over the last 5 years.

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/que...2004&sort=U_PL

That link will break it down for you. Unless I have done my query wrong, and I don't think I have, it seems like you should not waste your time on this.

Follow that link and you will see $ Under which equals the amount of money gained risking to win $100 or risking $100 (depending on the line) for the under.

Again, I could be wrong so double check those results.

[curious]

CK, regarding the CALIFORNIA UNDERS system, I'm not really sure what research you are doing but this system has been largely NOT profitable over the last 5 years.

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/que...2004&sort=U_PL

That link will break it down for you. Unless I have done my query wrong, and I don't think I have, it seems like you should not waste your time on this.

Follow that link and you will see $ Under which equals the amount of money gained risking to win $100 or risking $100 (depending on the line) for the under.

Again, I could be wrong so double check those results.

I checked this out too. Throw out April and September and see what you get. I think the trick is that you want it to be hot. Not entirely sure about that but I know April is heavy on the OVER.

[ram1502]

These mutha fu.hkers are walking in runs!!!

[Minkus]

any reason no one is picking the padres?

[Panekkkk]

In fact, only run this system MAY and JUNE (or even just MAY but beware 2006). Throw out all other months and you might yield some profit (+8 units in 2009, +23 units in 2008, +8.6 units in 2007,
-4.1 units in 2006, +0.7 units 2005)

2006 seems like it was a really messed up year for a lot of systems I've backchecked ... I wonder if that happens every 3-5 years or so.

[spal2811]

oh no.........here goes the jays pen....

[ram1502]

God damn Jays bullpen cost me my RRL play at +200. I hope they can at least hold on and win the fuhking game.

[woodman663]

They really insist on making us jays fans have heart attacks.

[spal2811]

bluejays!!!!

[Minkus]

+money winner congrats guys

Now check out the padres game, +money for this game, great value

Bullpen 10-game performance:
Padres WHIP: 1.135 | Diamondbacks WHIP: 1.475

[cocknocker]

Jays did everything that they could to give away the win. Damn I hate relief pitching this year. It has made me a little unsure of calls now even if I have accounted for it. It still is truly amazing to watch teams give away wins in such a fashion. But anyway, we stole that money. On to the late games!

[cocknocker]

Hey wasnt Toronto an "A" play today also? I didnt get an email from the man this morning. I believe Washington is an "A" play too no? Thanks.

I don't care. I can't put money on the Naturals unless it is a JM play at this point. Fading them is horrid too because the vig will eat you up when they have a two game winning streak, ol!But to answer your question, there were no JM plays today

[cocknocker]

+money winner congrats guys

Now check out the padres game, +money for this game, great value

Bullpen 10-game performance:
Padres WHIP: 1.135 | Diamondbacks WHIP: 1.475

Minky pay attention

Starting pitcher WHIP last 3 outings

Padres 2.06
D-Backs 1.29

HEAVY Advantage for D-Backs

Power ranking

Padres+149
D-Backs-149

Current Line

D-Backs-160

RLM favors the Padres and the consensus is showing only 29% of bettors are on the Padres. So this is one thing going for you

Hitting average last 3 games

Padres .185
D-Backs .230

Advantage D-Backs

Slugging% last 3 games

Padres .296
D-Backs .410

HEAVY advantage for D-Backs

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

Padres 1.325
D-Backs 1.000

Advantage D-Backs


So what's going on here is that you can't go back 10 games and judge performances from that far back for a game today. Matter of fact, 5 games is to far back as well. Not saying that San Diego doesn't get the cover, because no one is playing them and obviously you are on the side of the books by making your play. Good luck to you on your pick

[cocknocker]

I checked this out too. Throw out April and September and see what you get. I think the trick is that you want it to be hot. Not entirely sure about that but I know April is heavy on the OVER.

Oh hell yeah, now that's the shit that I needed to hear. Consider this information as being on my grease board now. Thanks, curious!

[ram1502]

Weren't the Nationals on your initial leans for today in yesterday's thread CK?

[tbill11]

Where do you get your past 3 game info? Closest I've been finding is past 7 at Donbest.

[ram1502]

they have 5 at covers and I think he gets last 3 games from clean up hitter

[cocknocker]

In fact, only run this system MAY and JUNE (or even just MAY but beware 2006). Throw out all other months and you might yield some profit (+8 units in 2009, +23 units in 2008, +8.6 units in 2007,
-4.1 units in 2006, +0.7 units 2005)

2006 seems like it was a really messed up year for a lot of systems I've backchecked ... I wonder if that happens every 3-5 years or so.

Yeah 2006 was kind of scary coming down the stretch for my system until July and then it blasted off! But I think that I will sample Nowisgone's shiznit for the next two months with the only filter being consensus. If everyone is leaning on the over, then time to pound the under!

I think that curious may be on the nail with games being played in hot weather making it hit at a higher %. It might be worth a look to see what happens in the first halves of these games. The we can take some more of the liablility out of the equation an get rid of bullpen failures....I wonder....

[cocknocker]

Weren't the Nationals on your initial leans for today in yesterday's thread CK?

Yeah and then I looked at the bullpen with that 2.000 WHIP over thier last 3 games and I decided that I would rather have a beer instead. However, other than that, all of the numbers were matching up for them to have a shot at winning the game. I am saying this as I am taking a chance o nthe O's bullpen tonight. I figured that the O's have a better starter, so the bullpen may be absolved of some of the issues. I can only play one bullpen with a WHIP over 2.000 per night, damnit!





Them crumbs did look good though!

[cocknocker]

Actually you can get the starting pitchers' WHIP over their last 3 games at covers, interestingly enough.

[bumppinee]

no one likes the reds today with Cueto on the mound

[kornixxxx]

san diego will win coknocker

when mlb season ends ? I am kind of rookie here

[thegenix]

Playoffs are in October kornixxxx

[kornixxxx]

thx a lot

[bumppinee]

i have to take the reds, i see another low scoring game like philly had yesterday but the reds have the bats to back it up joey votto is on fire as of lately. cole Hamel is in a slump and their bullpen is giving up 4.55 runs at home compared to Reds road 2.50. My crumbs play Reds + 148