MLB - Wednesday, 9/26/18

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Wednesday

Braves / Mets UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Tigers / Twins UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 428-462-18, +1.39

[GreatWallofTrump]

Almost 1000 plays just to break even. Not bad. You had all that excitement for free.

[jjgold]

Wow this guy collapsed he must be breaking televisions

[Tunes]

I wonder how many units you'd be up if the numbers didn't keep spitting out the Phillies everyday.

[Sam Odom]

YTD: 428-462-18, +1.39

Unless you are betting $100K per unit you can not make a living betting Baseball


Good Luck LT in the Playoffs

[LT Profits]

Almost 1000 plays just to break even. Not bad. You had all that excitement for free.

This is season low (terrible timing), was at +22 earlier in the year and +15 as recently as like two weeks ago.

[lakerboy]

This is season low (terrible timing), was at +22 earlier in the year and +15 as recently as like two weeks ago.

You should have just quit until the playoffs when you were up 22

[Mike Huntertz]

You should have just quit until the playoffs when you were up 22

You have that crystal ball?

[Foxx]

You should have just quit until the playoffs when you were up 22

Never quit when your a head.

[LT Profits]

You should have just quit until the playoffs when you were up 22

I have traditionally done well in September in years past because it has usually been an underdog month. This year, not so much.

[hit_me90]

GM LT can you pls give me the totals on the Nationals game and the Toronto game

thank you mucho

[jjgold]

This guy sinking like the great titanic we could have another epic story here

[LT Profits]

GM LT can you pls give me the totals on the Nationals game and the Toronto game

thank you mucho

No I cannot. Nationals and Astros both having Bullpen Days with no designated long man, so I didn't bother modeling.

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Additions

4 MLB Plays Wednesday

Braves / Mets UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Pirates / Cubs UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Tigers +128 (Heritage)
Tigers / Twins UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)

[jjgold]

[veriableodds]

you would do better if you just volume wager and reduce unit size. Quite simple using team rankings schedule teams that are 10 ranks of each other just take the dog, clear favs take them. scratch the juice -190 on favs. Check out totals that pay + only and compare to the matchups for the day if seems like a 50/50 shoot for it, you will save yourself a lot of headache. If you were wagering 2%pp reduce down to .75%pp because you are going to have volume. Yesterdays results using this simple formula with lines
az/+193-w
mlw/+111-w
cubs-L
atlanta+138-w
philly-l
txs-l
det+155-w
kc+149-w
3 totals that looked great close 2 a 50/50 that pays over +ev/only 1 won
az game under8 +108/W
laa ov9 game-L
cincy ov9 game-L
6-5

[pavyracer]

Late season collapse AKA chasing.

[LT Profits]

you would do better if you just volume wager and reduce unit size. Quite simple using team rankings schedule teams that are 10 ranks of each other just take the dog, clear favs take them. scratch the juice -190 on favs. Check out totals that pay + only and compare to the matchups for the day if seems like a 50/50 shoot for it, you will save yourself a lot of headache. If you were wagering 2%pp reduce down to .75%pp because you are going to have volume. Yesterdays results using this simple formula with lines
az/+193-w
mlw/+111-w
cubs-L
atlanta+138-w
philly-l
txs-l
det+155-w
kc+149-w
3 totals that looked great close 2 a 50/50 that pays over +ev/only 1 won
az game under8 +108/W
laa ov9 game-L
cincy ov9 game-L
6-5

900 plays isn't volume betting?

And stop with your silly simple angles, anything that does not look at specific game does not win long term.

[LT Profits]

Late season collapse AKA chasing.

No chasing here, my volume has actually been lower in September,

[veriableodds]

starting at 5:40 pm here would be todays plays
word on totals I saw 7 +ev of them today but noon at least to me looked 50% towards the + way so scratch
using tr schedule rankings matchups 11 ranks or less dog/ clear favs take no more than -190
nyy-170
cbs/-179
atl/+149
philly/+183
clv/-180
txs/+160
sdg/+107
det/+126
kc/+145

[veriableodds]

if you dont think team ranking model inputs are worth anything i dont know what to tell you

[LT Profits]

starting at 5:40 pm here would be todays plays
word on totals I saw 7 +ev of them today but noon at least to me looked 50% towards the + way so scratch
using tr schedule rankings matchups 11 ranks or less dog/ clear favs take no more than -190
nyy-170
cbs/-179
atl/+149
philly/+183
clv/-180
txs/+160
sdg/+107
det/+126
kc/+145

Again, rankings are totally meaningless, don't even waste your time looking at them.

[LT Profits]

if you dont think team ranking model inputs are worth anything i dont know what to tell you

I have rankings at the player level, which is why I could easily update model for lineup changes. Using someone else's overall team rankings is not beneficial at all.

[veriableodds]

just trying to help you out I guess math nerds that live eat and breath #s and all they have ever studied since h.school and getting college degrees in the subject don't compare to your models.
GL with the grind

[veriableodds]

I have rankings at the player level, which is why I could easily update model for lineup changes. Using someone else's overall team rankings is not beneficial at all.

just like every body else , the point we are all looking for bias + lines not just picking blindly?? who does that?? where and how do you think the picks are created?

[LT Profits]

just like every body else , the point we are all looking for bias + lines not just picking blindly?? who does that?? where and how do you think the picks are created?

I don't even know what this means, I do nothing blindly. Do you even frequent these threads? I drill down to the player level to produce a projected win % and total, and I compare those to actual line. And yes, more often that not I land on underdogs, but that is not even the point. That method if far superior than looking at rankings or using trends such as blindly playing all underdogs above +120. Each game is its own entity, yet you are introducing generalities that can be easily found, making them virtually useless as a +EV tool.

[jjgold]

LT under pressure tonight, in the past he performed well

I think he gets it done tonight

[DigBick86]

Tailing Tigers

[LT Profits]

1 Last MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Braves / Mets UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Pirates / Cubs UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Tigers +128 (Heritage)
Tigers / Twins UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Padres +106 (Heritage)

[TheLock]

A lot of haters came out of the woodwork today.

Guy keeps a documented season long thread. Not many do that. No need to pile on the guy for sticking it out for all to see.

[KVB]

LT knows the game. You'll get back up there LT. I hit a high of over 12 units Friday of Labor Day weekend and went 0-5 and 0-6 the next two days. Got it back up to over 4 units before I quit posting, too heard to post as I make the plays when betting on the run and far too busy now to stay consistent.

Now it's back up to +7.5 units.

It's grind but you'll probably get the better of it during the playoffs.

[jjgold]

Does LT profits have too many distractions at home?

[smitch124]

Does LT profits have too many distractions at home?

If that bird is still alive, that'd be one.

[LT Profits]

If that bird is still alive, that'd be one.

Sadly no. passed earlier this year. Smuckers had a great run, was nearing 40 years old.

[LT Profits]

Does LT profits have too many distractions at home?

Other than you constantly Skyping me, no.