Mr. Crumbs Leans for Tuesday June 30, 2009

[cocknocker]

Straights

Braves/Phillies over 8.5 Bombs away! Lowe's pitching
Royals+131 Who needs Guillen? They're gonna get it done anyway
Royals-1.5 +230 RRL See above
Cubs-125 Two in a row, you know the drill Lilly's on the hill



Thoughts...

Play all of the uncomissioned JM plays tonight and count our money. There are some great matchup problems with them despite the new filters.

[MILEHIGHMONSTERS]

GL today.

[cocknocker]

GM Bankruptcy Hearing begins today, and at the same time in a bit of irony they also announced that they have pulled out of NUMMI today as well. The only plant on the west coast is out here in Fremont. There are 4700 employees. Stay tuned...NUMMI will have to do some restructuring. And the State's budget crisis is out of whack. There's talk of increasing taxes again, but non collection of taxes is one of the reasons why the state is having problems to begin with. Get ready to start paying more at parking meters, lol!

Do continue to watch as this stock will continue to reduce its'self to pennies. Get in on the bottom floor. Modifications to the type of vehicle that is produced will come and the government will obviously have a hand in production and say-so. Invest your money where the government puts theirs. It's like putting your money on the side of the books. Who know..you may be investing in the cars that we will all be forced to drive in the future unless you want to pay severe penalties to operate a relic.

I am interested in how the CEO thing will work. Talking about a Trojan Horse...You already know the first thing he must do is fire the motherf*cker who hired him, and go from there. The company will have to become stream lined and produce cheaper, more fuel efficient (smaller) vehicles. A good look would be into what type of companies will be relied upon to provide the new technology for the new models, wether it be electronical or mechanical. What brand of tires will be put on the cars, you know stuff like that...right..

Just more food for thought.

[bumppinee]

Cleveland has cliff lee on the mound, but im not willing to pay that much juice so im going to parlay the Indians/Cubs money line $120 to win 204.

Also taking the padres as a late night snack at -102, as hampton who has been struggling lately has an era of 5.17 against the padres!

Also hitting up the WNBA today! picks been on fire

GL everyone make this money!

[Minkus]

CK for the Phillies game

Joe Blanton does not scare you? He is getting better and better as the season goes on.

[cocknocker]

Minkus,

the Phillies are gonna get theirs. Lowe has a WHIP of 2.83 (not era) over his last three performances, and that is horrid. So Philly will score some runs for sure. And as far as the Braves offense is concerned, they are due to bust out the whoppin' sticks as they are playing their 5th game without winning by at least 2 runs. The hitting coach had guys in the batting cage prior to this series, believe that. So the Braves will be more aggressive in their approach.

Blanton pitched out here to start his career, so I am qualified to speak on him as a season ticket holder for the past 7 years, lol! He is very hittable and he is always around the plate. Turner Field is known as the Launching Pad for a reason. With both teams having slugging% over .330 over their last 3 games it will show today. Those Philly bats are warming up!

[Minkus]

I took your approach of looking at whip with the site you gave me, cleanuphitter.com
And im in a huge slump. Im trying to find a different approach today.

WHIP 2.83 is nuts though, but everytime i factor it in my capping, it gives me a losing bet

[jellobiafra]

I took your approach of looking at whip with the site you gave me, cleanuphitter.com
And im in a huge slump. Im trying to find a different approach today.

WHIP 2.83 is nuts though, but everytime i factor it in my capping, it gives me a losing bet

If anything, when dealing with a pitcher of Lowe's pedigree, that WHIP tells me he is way past due for a correction. Does anybody remember opening night? Lowe vs PHI ..... 8 innings of 2 hit ball I think. He's always pitched well against PHI. Check the priors on that. And by the way, Turner Field is not "The Launching Pad". That was Fulton Country Stadium. Turner Field is one of the lowest home run producing parks in the MLB. Some of that can be attributed to the Braves lineup over the past couple years, but don't be fooled. It's a definite pitcher's park. It was designed with a staff of Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux in mind.

[Minkus]

im getting 9 not 8.5


idk bout this one

[wangichu]

im getting 9 not 8.5


idk bout this one

that's good... it's line movement in support of the play it's like the books saying "fire away, you've got a solid play"

[wangichu]

Minkus,

the Phillies are gonna get theirs. Lowe has a WHIP of 2.83 (not era) over his last three performances, and that is horrid. So Philly will score some runs for sure. And as far as the Braves offense is concerned, they are due to bust out the whoppin' sticks as they are playing their 5th game without winning by at least 2 runs. The hitting coach had guys in the batting cage prior to this series, believe that. So the Braves will be more aggressive in their approach.

Blanton pitched out here to start his career, so I am qualified to speak on him as a season ticket holder for the past 7 years, lol! He is very hittable and he is always around the plate. Turner Field is known as the Launching Pad for a reason. With both teams having slugging% over .330 over their last 3 games it will show today. Those Philly bats are warming up!

i love ya man, and you're probably right on the play, but turner field ain't no launching pad. It's a reputed pitcher's park which complicates the braves historic hitting woes. That being said, good luck with your play, pitcher's park or no, the numbers are what they are and that's why the play is solid, especially with a fairly low number.

[Minkus]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minkus
im getting 9 not 8.5


idk bout this one

that's good... it's line movement in support of the play it's like the books saying "fire away, you've got a solid play"

Yes true.
I came up with this for 2004-2008, Batters VS pitcher
Phillies Batters VS Lowe = .164
Braves Batters VS Blanton=.314

AVERAGE

[Minkus]

2009 Season

Phillies batters VS Lowe=.083
Braves batters VS Blanton=.340

AVERAGE

[wangichu]

still widdling my card down, but i like:

BAL ML
PIT ML
TOR ML

looking at:

KC ML
OAK ML
MIL ML

[curious]

GM Bankruptcy Hearing begins today, and at the same time in a bit of irony they also announced that they have pulled out of NUMMI today as well. The only plant on the west coast is out here in Fremont. There are 4700 employees. Stay tuned...NUMMI will have to do some restructuring. And the State's budget crisis is out of whack. There's talk of increasing taxes again, but non collection of taxes is one of the reasons why the state is having problems to begin with. Get ready to start paying more at parking meters, lol!

Do continue to watch as this stock will continue to reduce its'self to pennies. Get in on the bottom floor. Modifications to the type of vehicle that is produced will come and the government will obviously have a hand in production and say-so. Invest your money where the government puts theirs. It's like putting your money on the side of the books. Who know..you may be investing in the cars that we will all be forced to drive in the future unless you want to pay severe penalties to operate a relic.

I am interested in how the CEO thing will work. Talking about a Trojan Horse...You already know the first thing he must do is fire the motherf*cker who hired him, and go from there. The company will have to become stream lined and produce cheaper, more fuel efficient (smaller) vehicles. A good look would be into what type of companies will be relied upon to provide the new technology for the new models, wether it be electronical or mechanical. What brand of tires will be put on the cars, you know stuff like that...right..

Just more food for thought.

GM is going to have a big problem. When the DemoCong launched their latest War, the War on Big Auto, to go along with the War on Big Oil, and the War on Big Coal, and the War on Drugs....they did not include Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, Mercedez, Kia, Mitsubishi, Volvo, Audi, etc, etc, etc as part of Big Auto.

Car companies that are successful will build cars that people want to buy. The two dozen car companies that were not targets of the War on Big Auto will be free to fill in the void left when Obamist Amerika (ala Stalinist Russia) forces GM and Chrysler to build putt putts. No one will buy them. Toyota, BMW, Mercedez, et al will build the SUVs, Trucks, and big cars that people want.

I have many friends that own either an SUV or a mini-van. ALL of these people own these vehicles because they NEED them. Either to haul all their brats around or to run their business or to run their farm.

I drive a Crown Victoria. I only burn the highest octane fuel and I keep my car in top condition. My car gets 25 MPG. I only drive it about 10,000 miles a year. If I go on a trip I rent a car. The idea that Obamist Amerika will force me to buy a putt putt in order to get another 5 or 10 miles per gallon is ridiculous. I will give up my Crown Vic when they pry it and my shotgun from my cold dead fingers.

GM and Chrysler will be out of business in five years.

I almost forgot. Do NOT believe this nonsense that the Obamists care about the environment. They don't. I can prove it. The European car makers have made an engine for years that gets 50+ MPG. Most cars sold in Europe have this engine. The engine is the TDI. I think that stands for Turbo Diesel Injection, or something like that. The engine is illegal in the United States due to some ridiculous rule by the EPA over "particulate matter" whatever that means. Volkswagen finally built a new version of the TDI engine that the EPA will accept. Only problem is that the engine gets 28 MPG instead of 50.

IF the Obamists were serious about CAFE standards they would tell the EPA to approve the European version of the TDI. Volkswagen agreed years ago to license this technology to American car manufacturers.

We could have had 50 MPG cars years ago.

I drove one of these cars a few years ago. It was peppy like a race car, the engine was so quiet you couldn't tell if it was running, and the ride was smooth.

The Obamists and the DemoCong do NOT care about the environment. They care about controlling your life.

[curious]

I took your approach of looking at whip with the site you gave me, cleanuphitter.com
And im in a huge slump. Im trying to find a different approach today.

WHIP 2.83 is nuts though, but everytime i factor it in my capping, it gives me a losing bet

A filter that I use is to take a starting pitcher's bases per out. Then take the opposing team's line up and calculate bases per run. Then take the starter's average innings per game. Then calculate the estimated bases allowed by the starter. Do the same thing for the probable relief pitchers over the number of innings given by 9-Starter's average innings per start. Calculate estimated bases allowed by the relief staff. Then take the estimated bases allowed and divide by bases per run, that will give you a good guess of runs scored for the game. Do it for both teams.

Anything that is close, say half a run apart doesn't tell you anything, but if you get 1 or more runs apart that tells you something.

Bases per out helps you find pitchers that are good against certain types of teams but will get killed by other types of teams. Some teams need 4 or 5 bases to score a run. Other teams need 2.5 bases to score a run. Take a pitcher that has a high bases per out and put them against a team that scores a run every 2.5 bases and watch the fireworks.

Don't use this as gospel, it is just another tool in the toolbox.

[Minkus]

how do they yankees look at -1.5
Marlins ML

PARLAY

[djpremier36]

Aight... so far, so good this week...only one side sticks out

BOS -120 ML / -1.5 +135 RL (Not worried about Smoltz last start)

TB/TOR under 8.5 +110

CWS/CLE under 8.5 +110 (small)

[Panekkkk]

I am on the Phillies but am seriously considering hedging my bet. Phillies absolutely dominate the Braves on the road; however, on the flipside, Lowe dominates the Phills and the Braves hitters dominate Blanton.

If any of you are familiar with Base_Runs sabermetrics, simulating this game using historical hitter data gives about 4.2 runs for the Braves off Blanton in 6 innings and only 1.8 runs for the Phillies off Lowe in 6 innings. I am too lazy to include mid-relief pitching and closers so keep that in mind.

Phillies are the better road team, are coming off two solid road victories, and are about due to start swinging. Lowe has been terrible his last 3 starts but last 3 trends tend to forget about regression to the mean. Lowe is not a 2.83 WHIP pitcher. He is a career 1.27 WHIP pitcher who is more than due to correct a trend. Might be this game or next. I hope it's next

baseball-reference.com OR
dailybaseballdata.com gives good team lineup vs. pitcher data

As an aside, I like the LAA/TEX game to go under 10.5. Hook buy to 11 might add extra insurance.

[cocknocker]

Right, curious. I think that the government is gonna do it anyway. The motion is already happening. They want to seize control of everything outside of the mortgages (which as everyone knows are mostly owned by Asian influences) and taking over a car company or two and making it the only options for American buyers is on the way. This is a move made out of greed, an not out of saving the environment. The fact is that when it all boils down to it, men in America have already been feminized. That happened a long time ago with certain moves by the Illuminati. Might as well go for the country as a whole and make it a norm to WANT to be programmed. Everything will be indentified, processed, bought and sold with the government getting a double dipped serving of sales tax and production fees. Wow!

Canada don't look so bad to me right now....The Red Light Districts are off the chain from what I hear... So it's narrowed down to Reno, a remote place in Arizona, Toronto or Vegas. I'm gonna bounce outta Cali!

[cocknocker]

Panekkk, the Braves are money burners. Either bet against them or leave them the f*ck alone. I am through trying to figure that team out. They defy good math cuzzin'

[Panekkkk]

Panekkk, the Braves are money burners. Either bet against them or leave them the f*ck alone. I am through trying to figure that team out. They defy good math cuzzin'

Hah true that, which is why I hopped on the Phils despite the math. Braves are 3-9 at home when the line is between -115 and -135 for a nice $-835 when betting to win $100 on the Braves vs. $745 gained when betting $100 against the braves in this exact scenario.

Phillies are $455 and $-525 when betting on/against them in this situation so far this year.

I'll side with the $ and f*ck the stats.

[tbill11]

I like the Royals pick, and I also like the under! Bannister and Baker have both been lights out recently (with WHIPs under 1 for their last 3 starts) and neither team is hitting very well right now. I think the Royal and Twinkies duke it out and end up with a 3-1 Royals win.

[Panekkkk]

Right, curious. I think that the government is gonna do it anyway. The motion is already happening. They want to seize control of everything outside of the mortgages (which as everyone knows are mostly owned by Asian influences) and taking over a car company or two and making it the only options for American buyers is on the way. This is a move made out of greed, an not out of saving the environment. The fact is that when it all boils down to it, men in America have already been feminized. That happened a long time ago with certain moves by the Illuminati. Might as well go for the country as a whole and make it a norm to WANT to be programmed. Everything will be indentified, processed, bought and sold with the government getting a double dipped serving of sales tax and production fees. Wow!

Canada don't look so bad to me right now....The Red Light Districts are off the chain from what I hear... So it's narrowed down to Reno, a remote place in Arizona, Toronto or Vegas. I'm gonna bounce outta Cali!

Come to Toronto . Nice women, decent sports, sick city, but the weather ain't so fly. I wanna go to Cali

[curious]

Right, curious. I think that the government is gonna do it anyway. The motion is already happening. They want to seize control of everything outside of the mortgages (which as everyone knows are mostly owned by Asian influences) and taking over a car company or two and making it the only options for American buyers is on the way. This is a move made out of greed, an not out of saving the environment. The fact is that when it all boils down to it, men in America have already been feminized. That happened a long time ago with certain moves by the Illuminati. Might as well go for the country as a whole and make it a norm to WANT to be programmed. Everything will be indentified, processed, bought and sold with the government getting a double dipped serving of sales tax and production fees. Wow!

Canada don't look so bad to me right now....The Red Light Districts are off the chain from what I hear... So it's narrowed down to Reno, a remote place in Arizona, Toronto or Vegas. I'm gonna bounce outta Cali!

The Obamists are not going to last. They are believing their own lies. They told Amerika that a "few thousand" people showed up for the tea parties. There were 4.4 MILLION of us.

The professional racists organized a million man march TO Washington. We are going to organize a ten million man march ON Washington.

Any Congress criminal coming up for reelection is going to get hounded everytime it appears in public. This has already started happening. A Congress criminal from New York held a town hall meeting and was booed and heckled until it ran back under the rock it had crawled out from under. This Congress criminal canceled all of his public appearances the rest of the year.

A friend of mine asked me where I would like to emigrate to since I am so upset with the DemoCong and the Obamists. I said "NOWHERE", this is my country and the Communists are not taking it from me without a fight.

Wait until the terrorists set off something truly horrific in a mall. We already foiled three plots like this. But Obama has so crippled our security I'm not sure we can foil the next one. When this happens the soccer moms will realize that they are in danger now, that the terrorists are not just some funny looking guys on TV, and the soccer moms will demand their heads on poles.

In every country in history, when the government attacked the middle class and stole money from them to give to the "poor" and the "rich" the middle class turned to right wing extremism and elected a war mongering, rabble rousing, venom spewing "strong man" who ran on a platform of rounding up the communists and throwing them in concentration camps. This has happened EVERY TIME.

The Obamists are sowing the seeds of their own destruction.

[jellobiafra]

Panekkkk I'm on that LAA/TEX under too. I got it at 10 last night for +105 though. Not happy to see it up to 10.5 if that's accurate, but happy to have the +105.

I'm also on the Mets, Braves, and Tigers tonight.

Good luck all!

[Panekkkk]

Panekkkk I'm on that LAA/TEX under too. I got it at 10 last night for +105 though. Not happy to see it up to 10.5 if that's accurate, but happy to have the +105.

I'm also on the Mets, Braves, and Tigers tonight.

Good luck all!

Yeah, I'm a bit intrigued to see it so high to begin with. Saunders and Feldman are both serviceable pitchers. Rangers aren't hitting and Angels will have to slow eventually. Kinda wish I had bought up to 11 ... 75% on the under and the line went up to 10.5. Gulp.

[socrates01]

Straights

Braves/Phillies over 8.5 Bombs away! Lowe's pitching
Royals+131 Who needs Guillen? They're gonna get it done anyway
Royals-1.5 +230 RRL See above
Cubs-125 Two in a row, you know the drill Lilly's on the hill



Thoughts...

Play all of the uncomissioned JM plays tonight and count our money. There are some great matchup problems with them despite the new filters.

What do you mean by JM plays? Are there any of these that you like HEAVY? Thanks

[cocknocker]

Yeah, I'm a bit intrigued to see it so high to begin with. Saunders and Feldman are both serviceable pitchers. Rangers aren't hitting and Angels will have to slow eventually. Kinda wish I had bought up to 11 ... 75% on the under and the line went up to 10.5. Gulp.

The meat on that game isn't the total. It's the side. The Rangers have lost 3 straight games and the last was by more than 3 runs and they are at home. The line is level and they are the minority. Rangers are the play

[Panekkkk]

The meat on that game isn't the total. It's the side. The Rangers have lost 3 straight games and the last was by more than 3 runs and they are at home. The line is level and they are the minority. Rangers are the play

Yeah, that's probably what the books are thinking. And if the Rangers do it, they'll probably need 6+ runs.

[Panekkkk]

CK, you're wanted in the WNBA thread :P (SM)

[socrates01]

Hey guys what are JM plays?

[socrates01]

does it mean just moneyline???

[spal2811]

jello the line is out for ATL/PHI tomorrow and the O/U is set at 8 +100 right now....you still jumping on it

[Flight]

Hey guys what are JM plays?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/139216-morrison-betting-system-mlb.html