Mlb 5518

**juicername** · 09-08-18, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by kingdom

9/7 Results:

LAD (W) .71u
ARI (W) .40u
NYY (W)
ATL (L) -1u

Current Record: 112-10 (+31.83u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u)

Cool system and great results, but you're aware Atlanta and Arizona are playing each other now right? Would probably make sense to filter out series where two teams above .550 are player each other.

**juicername** · 09-08-18, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by kingdom

9/8

ATL +117 1u -175 RL 1u
NYY -112 .5u
SEA -150 RL 1u

NYY have won two of their last three so should not be a play today?

**kingdom** · 09-08-18, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by juicername

NYY have won two of their last three so should not be a play today?

If you look at NYY chase i broke even as it was RL play. as far as the teams playing each other i am yet to lose and it has balanced out. the nyy win was not counted as a w in the system, but a push. i honestly have been undecided if it is good to accept the push or small loss. i really don't like the yankee game today as both pitchers are unimpressive. that's why its only .5
Those are key questions i have had to decide on throughout. teams playing each other as well as chases ending in small loss or a push. i sometimes end up with an L on the RL despite the team winning 2/3 SU.
that's why i used term variables in initial post as i wasn't sure about a possible recoup system etc. first time trying so been playing somewhat by ear.

**kingdom** · 09-08-18, 04:56 PM

Not sure i was clear above. Sometimes i assume there is a certain understanding of what i am doing and i don't explain properly. The losses of CLE and BOS were teams that actually won the C bet. But with the lines being so large and out of whack, i wouldn't risk that amount on that C bet. Ideally i intend to minimize possible loss because these teams are often very large fav's and i would have to risk 8-10 units on one game with the lines big fav's are getting this year. A perfect example is BOS. on the 26th they lost 2u, and then 2u on 28th. On the 29th they were -360. no way in hell i'm risking 15u to win just over 4u. So i made a rl bet to minimize the loss. and it became something like a 2 unit loss instead of potentially 19. I used the same theory with the nyy yesterday. liked the RL, but not for more than 2.1 units when i was only down 1u.

**juicername** · 09-08-18, 09:26 PM

My concerns were:

On 9/7 you had

ATL -150 RL 1u and
ARI +140 RL 1u

ensuring yourself a loss since both RL plays couldn't hit, they were playing each other.

-----------------

On 9/8 you had

NYY -112 .5u

despite NYY not being a play according to the definition in the original post. They had won two of their last three heading into 9/8.

**kingdom** · 09-09-18, 03:18 AM

Originally posted by juicername

My concerns were:

On 9/7 you had

ATL -150 RL 1u and
ARI +140 RL 1u

ensuring yourself a loss since both RL plays couldn't hit, they were playing each other.

-----------------

On 9/8 you had

NYY -112 .5u

despite NYY not being a play according to the definition in the original post. They had won two of their last three heading into 9/8.

and gaining a win in the process which ended up being higher value than the loss at an equal price risked. and if they lose why blow the atlanta win? i am playing for a win in both series and this has been successful.

as far as the yankee game they were a generated play when they lost 2 of 3. the b bet didn't win the series, it created a push. and not a win. if i have a (b) bet that is a RL loss, the following day is a play as well. the series hasn't ended despite the team winning. i don't lose and end the series after just a b bet resulting in a RL loss or a push. and i'm not gonna be policed by the original post. I ran a practice of the system for less than 2 weeks before posting. That's why i made extremely clear in the original post there would be variables to minimize unit loss. for example not playing the yankees for 3.5 units just to cover for the 1 unit lost on a bet. It would just be a standard system losing huge amounts of units trying to play to a standard. never the intent. again to win or minimize loss. not win at all costs and play extraordinary units. I know guys may be used to systems with cemented plays. That's not what this is at all.

**kingdom** · 09-09-18, 03:31 AM

Originally posted by kingdom

I have always been intrigued by the potential success of abc chase systems. I have also been concerned about the size of losses eliminating potential profit. So i have been experimenting with winning mlb teams and the expectation they will win more often than not over a series of games.

Criteria is teams winning .550 or better on the season and having lost 2 of last 3 games. With many of these teams being large favorites, the design is not always to win a full unit to minimize any potential loss. RL plays will be an option and situation dependent based on line value. There will be variables in place to again minimize potential losses. Every bet will not be designed to win a unit, but remain positive overall. Plays are unit risked. Not to win.

I know it's not step by step detailed where all plays are generic. I look at scheduling, trends, pitchers etc. when i decide on a play size and if it's RL or ml. These variables and this thread are for my benefit as much as anything. I haven't been winning in baseball and wanted to try something different. I just hope its sustainable.

**juicername** · 09-09-18, 04:47 AM

I don't see how nyy was a push after winning 4-0, but as long as it makes sense to you bro

. Was trying to predict the picks

**kingdom** · 09-09-18, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by juicername

I don't see how nyy was a push after winning 4-0, but as long as it makes sense to you bro

. Was trying to predict the picks

If you don't see how the series was a push at the point of the b bet after i have written over 500 words attempting to explain, i am convinced i can't help you. but i did try. and to be honest, it is not designed for the picks to be predicted. the 2L of 3 just generates the play. If you are not comfortable with my numbers create your own.

**kingdom** · 09-09-18, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by kingdom

9/8

ATL +117 1u -175 RL 1u
NYY -112 .5u
SEA -150 RL 1u

9/8 Results:

ATL (W) .74
NYY (W) .45
SEA (L) -1u

Current Record: 114-10 (+33.02u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u)

**kingdom** · 09-09-18, 11:33 AM

9/9

STL -123 1u
CHC -116 1u
SEA -135 RL 2u
BOS -108 1u

**kingdom** · 09-10-18, 12:20 PM

9/9 Results:

STL (W) .81u
SEA (W) .48u
BOS (W) .93u
CHC --- PP

Current Record: 117-10 (+35.24u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u)

**kingdom** · 09-10-18, 12:25 PM

9/10

CLE -145 1u
CHC -135 1u
STL -126 1u
COL -135 1u

**nistor22** · 09-11-18, 10:15 AM

I really like what you are doing here!
I always believed that in order for a chase system to be productive, you have to know the teams that you are betting on and adjust your bets.
I'm in starting today!
Hope that we can make profit for the rest of the season!
Just a quick question: you are always posting (with the plays) the units that you are risking, not the units that you want to win?

**kingdom** · 09-11-18, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by nistor22

I really like what you are doing here!
I always believed that in order for a chase system to be productive, you have to know the teams that you are betting on and adjust your bets.
I'm in starting today!
Hope that we can make profit for the rest of the season!
Just a quick question: you are always posting (with the plays) the units that you are risking, not the units that you want to win?

Ty sir. Yes it is units risked. Winning teams can often be huge favs. For that reason i like to keep the risk down of a losing streak which can be costly. Gl and i hope the good times continue to roll.

**kingdom** · 09-11-18, 05:03 PM

9/10 Results:

STL (W) .79u
COL (W) .74u
CHC (L) -1u
CLE (L) -1u

Current Record: 119-10 (+36.77u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u)

**kingdom** · 09-11-18, 05:06 PM

9/11

CLE -120 1u +140 RL .5u
BOS -320 2u
CHC -123 2u
SEA -210 2u

**kingdom** · 09-12-18, 01:00 PM

9/11 Results:

CLE (W) .53u
BOS (W) .63u
CHC (W) .63u
SEA (L) -2u

Current Record: 122-10 (+38.56u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u)

**kingdom** · 09-12-18, 01:04 PM

9/12

CLE -105 1u
SEA -145 2u
CHC -157 1u
NYY -125 RL 1u
COL -101 1u

**kingdom** · 09-13-18, 03:46 PM

9/12 Results:

COL (W) .99u
CHC(L) -1u
NYY (L) -1u
CLE (L) -1u
SEA (L) -2u

Current Record: 123-10 (+39.55u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u)

**kingdom** · 09-13-18, 03:50 PM

9/13

CHC -110 2u
SEA -190 RL 3u

**nistor22** · 09-13-18, 04:03 PM

I think SEA was -2u, not -1u.

Originally posted by kingdom

9/12 Results:

COL (W) .99u
CHC(L) -1u
NYY (L) -1u
CLE (L) -1u
SEA (L) -1u

Current Record: 123-10 (+39.55u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u)

**kingdom** · 09-13-18, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by nistor22

I think SEA was -2u, not -1u.

ty. i should know as i've been stressing on that play today. it was either +160 -1.5 for 3 units or +1.5 to take a smaller L. i really think the -1.5 has a good chance, but hoping to avoid losing 7units if not. if i wasn't 4 in the hole i take the +160 rl for 2 units.

**kingdom** · 09-14-18, 11:41 AM

9/13 Results:

CHC (W) .82u
SEA (L) -2.42 (series loss)

Current Record: 124-11 (+37.95u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u) SEA (-2.42)

**kingdom** · 09-14-18, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by kingdom

ty. i should know as i've been stressing on that play today. it was either +160 -1.5 for 3 units or +1.5 to take a smaller L. i really think the -1.5 has a good chance, but hoping to avoid losing 7units if not. if i wasn't 4 in the hole i take the +160 rl for 2 units.

Leake for SEA had not been in a one run game since July 25. Odd but his games aren't usually close either way. I just wasn't comfortable with the risk. SEA is the first series loss in the last 42 series. Pretty good run. But i'm confident the system will make up those units over the weekend. The last 4 series losses actually won the 'c' bet (MIL,CLE,BOS,SEA). I've just been playing it close to the vest. If anyone following is comfortable with the risk, it does get you a few more units. Gl either way.

**kingdom** · 09-14-18, 12:28 PM

9/14

NYY -268 3u
CLE +120 RL 1u
STL +114 1u
SEA -155 RL .5u

**kingdom** · 09-15-18, 09:10 AM

9/14 Results:

NYY (W) .12u
SEA (W) .32u
CLE (L) -1u
STL (L) -1u

Current Record: 126-11 (+38.39)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u) SEA (-2.42)

**kingdom** · 09-15-18, 09:14 AM

9/15

STL -140 RL 2u
CLE -115 RL 3u
NYY -220 2u
TB -112 1u

**kingdom** · 09-16-18, 10:50 AM

9/15 Results:

CLE (W) .61u
TB (W) .89u
STL (L) -2u
NYY (L) -2u

Current Record: 128-11 (+39.89u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u) SEA (-2.42)

**kingdom** · 09-16-18, 10:53 AM

9/16

NYY -110 RL 2u
CLE +105 RL 1u
OAK -220 RL 1u
STL -125 RL 3u

**kingdom** · 09-17-18, 04:52 PM

9/16 Results:

OAK (W) .45
NYY (L) -2u
CLE (L) -1u
STL (L) (-.60) Series Loss

Current Record: 129-12 (+39.74u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u) SEA (-2.42) STL (-.60u)

**kingdom** · 09-17-18, 04:55 PM

9/17

ATL -135 1u
STL -175 RL 1u
MIL +115 RL 1u
COL -150 RL 1u

**kingdom** · 09-18-18, 03:58 PM

9/17 Results:

STL (W) .57u
MIL (W) 1.15u
ATL (L) -1u
COL (L) -1u

Current Record: 131-12 (+41.46u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u) SEA (-2.42) STL (-.60u)

**kingdom** · 09-18-18, 04:06 PM

9/18

NYY +130 RL 3.5u
CLE -120 RL 1u
ATL -130 2u
MIL +110 RL 1u
OAK -137 1u
COL -110 RL 1.25u

**kingdom** · 09-19-18, 04:43 PM

9/18 Results:

CLE (W) .83u
COL (W) .14u
ATL (L) -2u
MIL (L) -1u
OAK (L) -1u
NYY (L) -7.5u (Series Loss)

Current Record: 133-13 (+34.93)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u) LAD (-6u) HOU (-6u) HOU (-4.1u) MIL (-1.41u) CLE (-2.2u) BOS (-1.94u) SEA (-2.42) STL (-.60u) NYY (-7.5u)