Mlb 5518

[kingdom]

I have always been intrigued by the potential success of abc chase systems. I have also been concerned about the size of losses eliminating potential profit. So i have been experimenting with winning mlb teams and the expectation they will win more often than not over a series of games.

Criteria is teams winning .550 or better on the season and having lost 2 of last 3 games. With many of these teams being large favorites, the design is not always to win a full unit to minimize any potential loss. RL plays will be an option and situation dependent based on line value. There will be variables in place to again minimize potential losses. Every bet will not be designed to win a unit, but remain positive overall. Plays are unit risked. Not to win.

[kingdom]

7/26

NYY -255 (2u) risked

CHC -108 (1u)LAD -130 (1u)ATL -135 RL (1u)

[kingdom]

7/26 Results:

NYY (W) .78u
CHC (W) .93
LAD (W) .77
ATL (L) -1.0 (A bet)

Current Record: 3-0 (+2.48u)

[kingdom]

7/27

BOS -360 (2u)
CLE -183 (1u)
HOU -260 (2u)
LAD -153 (.5u)
ATL +143 (.5u) RL -119 (1u)

ATL is B bet

[kingdom]

7/27 Results:

LAD (W) .33u
BOS (W) .57
CLE (W) .55
HOU (L) -2u (A bet)
ATL (L) -1.5u (B bet)

Current Record 6-0 (+3.93u)

[kingdom]

7/28

HOU -335 (4u)
BOS -195 (1u)
SEA +112 (1u)
ATL +118 (.5u) RL -140 (2u)


ATL is C bet
HOU is B bet

[kingdom]

7/28

NYY -335 (2u) Game 2

[kingdom]

7/28 Results:

BOS (W) .51u
NYY (W) .60u
HOU (L) -4u (B Bet)
ATL (L) -2.5u (C Bet)
SEA (L) -1u (A Bet)

Current Record 8-1 (+.04u)

Loss: ATL (5u)

[kingdom]

7/29

PHI +104 (1u)
HOU -230 (5u)
SEA +107 (2u)
CHC -122 (1u)
ATL +130 (1u) RL -135 (1u)
OAK +116 (.5u) RL -145 (.5u)

HOU is C bet.
SEA is B bet.

[kingdom]

7/29 Results:

CHC (W) .82u
SEA (W) 1.14u
ATL (W) 2.04u
PHI (L) -1u (A Bet)
OAK (L) -.16u (A Bet)
HOU (L) -5u (C Bet)

Current Record: 11-2 (-6.96u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

[kingdom]

The Houson loss was tough. With the two big stars on the DL in Correa and Altuve, the lines didn't adjust at all over the weekend. The offense wasn't the same without those two and Springer expected to carry things. I expected the pitching to pull through once at home against Texas. Lines for all favs were brutal this weekend and i learned with the injuries i could have minimized the play on such a large fav. Being loyal to the criteria at those odds caused a bigger loss than necessary. Lesson learned. Based on test runs I hope to be in the plus by this weekend.

[kingdom]

7/30

PHI RL +155 (1.5u)
ATL -159 (1.2u)
OAK -139 (1.2u)
HOU -110 (1u)
SEA RL -160 (1u)

PHI is B bet.
OAK is B bet.

[kingdom]

7/30 Results:

SEA (W) .63u
OAK (W) .86u
ATL (W) .75u
PHI (W) -.03u
HOU (L) -1u (A Bet)

Current Record: 15-2 (-3.78u)


Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

[kingdom]

7/31

CHC +104 1u
CLE -151 1u
OAK -178 2u
LAD -168 1u
HOU -150 2u
PHI -140 RL 1u

HOU is B Bet.

[kingdom]

7/31 Results:

CLE (W) .66u
OAK (W) .56u
HOU (W) .33u
PHI (W) .71u
CHC (L) -1u
LAD (L) -1u

Current Record 19-2 (-1.52)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

[kingdom]

8/1

HOU -115 1u
CHC -127 2u
LAD -160 2u


CHC is B bet.
LAD is B bet.

[kingdom]

8/1 Results:

HOU (W) .87u
CHC (W) .57u
LAD (W) .25u

Current Record: 22-2 (+.17u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

[kingdom]

8/2

PHI -178 1.2u
LAD -189 1.2u
SEA -140 1u RL+140 .5u

[kingdom]

8/2 Results:

PHI (W) .67u
LAD (W) .63u
SEA (L) -1.5u

Current Record: 24-2 (+1.47u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

[kingdom]

8/3

CHC -195 1.2u
NYY -123 1u
MIL -122 1u
ARI -185 1.2u
SEA -160 1u RL +120 1u

[kingdom]

8/3 Results:

CHC (W) .62u
MIL (W) .82u
ARI (W) .65u
NYY (L) -1u
SEA (L) -2u

Current Record 27-2 (+3.56)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

[kingdom]

8/4

NYY 1u +140
SEA 3u RL -115
MIL 1u -134

[kingdom]

8/4 Results:

MIL (W) .75u
NYY (L) -1u
SEA (L) -3u

Current Record: 28-3 (-2.19u)

Loss: ATL 5u HOU 11u SEA 6.5u

[kingdom]

8/5

NYY 2.5u +105
SEA 1.5u -145
LAD 1.2u -115

[kingdom]

8/5 Results:

LAD (W) 1.04u
SEA (W) 1.03u
NYY (L) -2.5u

Current Record: 30-4 (-4.62)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

[kingdom]

8/6

SEA -114 1u
NYY -185 2u

[kingdom]

8/6 Results:

SEA (W) 1.05u
NYY (W) 1.08u

Current Record: 32-4 (-2.49u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

[kingdom]

8/7

NYY -190 2u
LAD -109 1u

[kingdom]

8/7

ATL 1.25u RL -125

[kingdom]

8/7 Results:

NYY (W) 1.05u
LAD (W) .92u
ATL (W) 1u

Current Record: 35-4 (+.48u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

[kingdom]

8/8


ARI -155 1.2u
MIL -190 2u

[kingdom]

8/8 Results:

ARI (W) .77u
MIL (W) 1.05u

Current Record: 37-4 (+2.3u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

[kingdom]

8/9

MIL -170 1.2u
SEA +150 .25u

[kingdom]

Seattle has lost 7 of 9 games by a total of 29 runs. I didn't want to include them based on that; as they may become a play at least twice. And their next 10 games are 4 at HOU, 3 at OAK, and 3 vs LAD. I will make the play as a minimal amount in first series.

[kingdom]

8/9 Results:

SEA (W) .38u
MIL (L) -1.2u

Current Record: 38-4 (+2.68u)

Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)