MLB - Monday, 7/9/18

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Sides Monday

Mets +103 (Game #1) (Heritage)
Marlins +138 (Heritage)
Reds +160 (5 Dimes)
Padres +219 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 255-265-13, +13.28

[LT Profits]

No totals yet, just the 4 sides for now.

[snider]

That Mets game isn’t even on abt odds

[44 Mag]

That Mets game isn’t even on abt odds

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets - Game 1
Mon 7/9		925 Philadelphia Phillies Z Eflin - R	-1½ +145-2½ +215-1 +116	-106 Listed	o8 -110o7½ -125o8½ +105o7 -170o9 +140	o4 -105	u4 -115
4:10PM		926 New York Mets Z Wheeler - R	+1½ -165+2½ -255+1 -136	-104 Listed	u8 -110u7½ +105u8½ -125u7 +150u9 -160	o3½ -125	u3½ +105

[LT Profits]

That Mets game isn’t even on abt odds

I kniow, it is not on sbr contests either. Check back around 10:30am ET

[KDF500]

I’m assuming the Padres RL presents value here as well?

[LT Profits]

I’m assuming the Padres RL presents value here as well?

Actually, NO!

I get Dodgers 65% (-186) ML
I get Dodgers 57% (-133) RL, basically in line with actual odds

Remember, Padres are home.

[rookieclapper]

Can I ask why you like the Mets today?

[KDF500]

Thanks for clarifying LT

[LT Profits]

Can I ask why you like the Mets today?

Better pitcher at what was underdog price when I bet it. I get Mets 53% (-113).

[jimmycage]

2018 era:
eflin 2.97
wheeler 4.37
how are u rating zw better?

[LT Profits]

2018 era:
eflin 2.97
wheeler 4.37
how are u rating zw better?

ERA means nothing. Wheeler is rare guy that combines good strikeout rate and good groundball rate. My numbers have Wheeler about 10% above average, Eflin right at average.

[44 Mag]

ERA means nothing. Wheeler is rare guy that combines good strikeout rate and good groundball rate. My numbers have Wheeler about 10% above average, Eflin right at average.

Really ???? Well your the only guy that thinks that. Nothing????

[LT Profits]

Really ???? Well your the only guy that thinks that. Nothing????

Not when it come to predicting the future, and I am far from the only guy that believes that. ERA is descriptive, not predictive. xFIP is TONS more predictive, I love when ERA and xFIP are far apart, clear sigh of pending regression in either direction (toward the xFIP).

[pilebuck13]

What you have for total on game 2 Mets philly

[ikid2groove415]

Dogs put to sleep tonight fella

[44 Mag]

Not when it come to predicting the future, and I am far from the only guy that believes that. ERA is descriptive, not predictive. xFIP is TONS more predictive, I love when ERA and xFIP are far apart, clear sigh of pending regression in either direction (toward the xFIP).

I'll post to top 15 pitchers in MLB, which are rated by ERA by every major sports reporting service, you tell me which ones don't belong, and who you would have in there.....

[44 Mag]

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	WAR	WHIP	ERA
1	Jacob deGrom	NYM	18	18	115.1	85	26	23	29	142	5	4	0	0	5.4	0.99	1.79
2	Blake Snell	TB	19	19	116.0	75	29	27	44	132	12	4	0	0	4.3	1.03	2.09
3	Luis Severino	NYY	19	19	123.1	88	30	29	31	143	14	2	0	0	5.0	0.96	2.12
4	Justin Verlander	HOU	19	19	125.2	82	32	30	24	154	9	4	0	0	3.6	0.84	2.15
5	Ross Stripling	LAD	24	13	89.1	83	23	22	13	103	7	2	0	0	2.9	1.07	2.22
6	Max Scherzer	WSH	19	19	127.2	82	36	33	32	177	11	5	0	0	4.7	0.89	2.33
7	Chris Sale	BOS	19	19	122.0	79	34	32	30	176	9	4	0	0	5.1	0.89	2.36
8	Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	17	17	95.0	65	29	25	40	114	6	5	0	0	2.7	1.11	2.37
9	Aaron Nola	PHI	18	18	116.0	86	31	31	33	116	11	2	0	0	5.2	1.03	2.41
10	Trevor Bauer	CLE	18	18	121.1	95	40	33	37	156	8	6	0	0	3.7	1.09	2.45
RK	PLAYER	TEAM	GP	GS	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	WAR	WHIP	ERA
11	Jon Lester	CHC	18	18	106.1	86	35	29	38	81	11	2	0	0	2.8	1.17	2.45
12	Corey Kluber	CLE	19	19	126.1	96	37	35	15	123	12	4	0	0	4.6	0.88	2.49
13	Miles Mikolas	STL	17	17	109.1	96	35	32	17	75	9	3	0	0	2.8	1.03	2.63
14	Tyler Skaggs	LAA	16	16	92.0	85	30	27	27	100	6	5	0	0	2.3	1.22	2.64
15	Gerrit Cole	HOU	18	18	116.2	75	38	35	38	158	9	2	0	0	2.5	0.97	2.70

[44 Mag]

OK, who doesn't belong there, and who would you put in there based on your predictive values...........

[LT Profits]

OK, who doesn't belong there, and who would you put in there based on your predictive values...........

Just add a column for xFIP and compare it to ERA, looking for variance of 1.00+

[44 Mag]

By the way, I don't jut look at a guys ERA. I look at WHIP, innings, K's Walk's, games started etc. I also check their yearly stats, record vs. opponent, if any, and last ten games pitched. Obviously win and lost record doesn't matter, look at #1, plays on a crummy team, as do some others.....

[44 Mag]

Just add a column for xFIP and compare it to ERA, looking for variance of 1.00+

Isn't that what you were going to do???? Who should I kick out of there, please, give me names????

[LT Profits]

OK, who doesn't belong there, and who would you put in there based on your predictive values...........

Better exercise would be to list top 15 xFIP and compare the lists. Then for guys that are not on both lists, look for which one most likely to regress.

[LT Profits]

Isn't that what you were going to do???? Who should I kick out of there, please, give me names????

i could but may take a while. Hold on.

[THam12]

By the way, I don't jut look at a guys ERA. I look at WHIP, innings, K's Walk's, games started etc. I also check their yearly stats, record vs. opponent, if any, and last ten games pitched. Obviously win and lost record doesn't matter, look at #1, plays on a crummy team, as do some others.....

You're arguing with a guy who uses a system that he believes in...
Same argument as batting avg not telling a batters whole story. On base percentage, slugging, OPS more complete look.

ERA is one piece.

[44 Mag]

You're arguing with a guy who uses a system that he believes in...
Same argument as batting avg not telling a batters whole story. On base percentage, slugging, OPS more complete look.

ERA is one piece.

Tham, great to see you again, if you look at my post you copied, I realize ERA is one piece. I tried finding Xfip, but no, listing anywhere. Even ESPN has Sabermetrics, but no column for XFIP.

[LT Profits]

i could but may take a while. Hold on.

Most obvious Negative Regressor candidate is Lester. There are other guys with variance worse than -1.00, but those guys still have xFIPs in the 3.00s, which is still good.

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	ERA	xFIP	VAR
1	Jacob deGrom	NYM	1.79	2.67	-0.88
2	Blake Snell	TB	2.09	3.48	-1.39
3	Luis Severino	NYY	2.12	2.98	-0.86
4	Justin Verlander	HOU	2.15	3.51	-1.36
5	Ross Stripling	LAD	2.22	2.73	-0.51
6	Max Scherzer	WSH	2.33	2.98	-0.65
7	Chris Sale	BOS	2.36	2.50	-0.14
8	Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	2.37	3.48	-1.11
9	Aaron Nola	PHI	2.41	3.28	-0.87
10	Trevor Bauer	CLE	2.45	3.01	-0.56
11	Jon Lester	CHC	2.45	4.57	-2.12
12	Corey Kluber	CLE	2.49	2.98	-0.49
13	Miles Mikolas	STL	2.63	3.70	-1.07
14	Tyler Skaggs	LAA	2.64	3.37	-0.73
15	Gerrit Cole	HOU	2.70	3.06	-0.36

[Waterstpub87]

Tham, great to see you again, if you look at my post you copied, I realize ERA is one piece. I tried finding Xfip, but no, listing anywhere. Even ESPN has Sabermetrics, but no column for XFIP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

XFip is the second to last column

[LT Profits]

And here is Top 15 in xFIP. No obvious Positive Regressors here other than Jon Gray, who is currently in minors!

Rank	Name	Team	xFIP	ERA	Var
1	Chris Sale	Red Sox	2.5	2.36	-0.14
2	Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	2.65	3.05	0.4
3	Jacob deGrom	Mets	2.67	1.79	-0.88
4	Ross Stripling	Dodgers	2.73	2.22	-0.51
5	Jon Gray	Rockies	2.81	5.77	2.96
6	Corey Kluber	Indians	2.98	2.49	-0.49
7	Max Scherzer	Nationals	2.98	2.33	-0.65
8	Luis Severino	Yankees	2.98	2.12	-0.86
9	James Paxton	Mariners	3	3.49	0.49
10	Trevor Bauer	Indians	3.01	2.45	-0.56
11	Charlie Morton	Astros	3.04	2.83	-0.21
12	Gerrit Cole	Astros	3.06	2.7	-0.36
13	Lance McCullers Jr.	Astros	3.22	3.41	0.19
14	Aaron Nola	Phillies	3.28	2.41	-0.87
15	Tyler Skaggs	Angels	3.37	2.64	-0.73

[44 Mag]

OK, nice list. But to be honest with you, if I had to look at all this crap, plus the crap I posted, plus what waterspout posted, I would never have time to make a play.

[44 Mag]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...ter=&players=0

XFip is the second to last column

Looks like half the top 15 are OUT.

[44 Mag]

Man, I suck at handicapping.

[LT Profits]

OK, nice list. But to be honest with you, if I had to look at all this crap, plus the crap I posted, plus what waterspout posted, I would never have time to make a play.

If you HAD to pick one stat to key on, I would pick xFIP for pitchers and wOBA+ for batters

[44 Mag]

Thanks Boss. Good debate though, wasn't it??? We got several to join in the fun.

[KDF500]

I enjoyed this.