MLB - Tuesday, 7/3/18

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Sides Tuesday

Mets +120 (Heritage)
Angels +102 (Heritage)


YTD: 246-250-13, +19.13

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Tuesday

3 MLB Plays Tuesday

Mets +120 (Heritage)
Mets / Blue Jays OVER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Angels +102 (Heritage)

[44 Mag]

Good Morning Boss. Thoughts on the Cincy game, and the Texas game. Pitcher ratings and sides, totals. Thanks in advance.

[LT Profits]

Cincinnati 67% (-204), 8.9

DeSclafani is just average but Giolito is literally my lowest rated pitcher in baseball right now among qualified starters.


Houston 59% (-144), 10.5

Rangers are actually playable although I have not pulled trigger. Both starters below average, but Keuchel is easily the more overrated of the two resulting in this line value. Also note that my total is exactly equal to actual total, so nothing to see there.

[RavensFan2k3]

Cincinnati 67% (-204), 8.9

DeSclafani is just average but Giolito is literally my lowest rated pitcher in baseball right now among qualified starters.


Houston 59% (-144), 10.5

Rangers are actually playable although I have not pulled trigger. Both starters below average, but Keuchel is easily the more overrated of the two resulting in this line value. Also note that my total is exactly equal to actual total, so nothing to see there.

Thought you said DeSclafani was below average?

[LT Profits]

Thought you said DeSclafani was below average?

Well technically 2% below average. I wanted to emphasize how low I have Giolito more.

[RavensFan2k3]

Well technically 2% below average. I wanted to emphasize how low I have Giolito more.

Oh ok, understood. How do you rate Jake Odorizzi and Junior Guerra?

[44 Mag]

Cincinnati 67% (-204), 8.9

DeSclafani is just average but Giolito is literally my lowest rated pitcher in baseball right now among qualified starters.


Houston 59% (-144), 10.5

Rangers are actually playable although I have not pulled trigger. Both starters below average, but Keuchel is easily the more overrated of the two resulting in this line value. Also note that my total is exactly equal to actual total, so nothing to see there.

Thanks Boss !!!!

[LT Profits]

Oh ok, understood. How do you rate Jake Odorizzi and Junior Guerra?

Pretty even, both around 10% below average. I get Milwaukee 55% (-122).

[cjpenn3]

What do you get for a total on the tigers cubs game?

[johnnyvegas13]

2 MLB Sides Tuesday

Mets +120 (Heritage)
Angels +102 (Heritage)


YTD: 246-250-13, +19.13

I'm on both opposite

y would u back the mets esp after they just won a gm

and I'll take seattles w streak at home

[LT Profits]

What do you get for a total on the tigers cubs game?

7.8

[LT Profits]

I'm on both opposite

y would u back the mets esp after they just won a gm

and I'll take seattles w streak at home

Streaks mean nothing to me. Mets and Angels both have nice pitching edges tonight, my overall numbers:

Toronto 51% (-104)
Angels 53% (-113)

[MontrealCrw]

I wouldn't bet Mets if my life depended on it, especially in IL game plus on the road.

Hopefully today is the day, you know what I mean, the magic number 20, cheers bro!

[LT Profits]

I wouldn't bet Mets if my life depended on it, especially in IL game plus on the road.

Hopefully today is the day, you know what I mean, the magic number 20, cheers bro!

I don't discriminate, value is value.

And thanks, I was temporarilly over 20 yesterday before last night's loss.

[KickShootThrow]

LT, explain why you like the angels?

Besides streaks mean nothing to you, mariners have won ... what 7 or 8 in a row?

Heaney doesnt have the best pitching stats against Seager, Haniger, Segura, or Cruz...

Thanks in advance

[LT Profits]

LT, explain why you like the angels?

Besides streaks mean nothing to you, mariners have won ... what 7 or 8 in a row?

Heaney doesnt have the best pitching stats against Seager, Haniger, Segura, or Cruz...

Thanks in advance

I have a big 17% gap between Heaney (6% above average) and LeBlanc (11% below average), that is key reason I get Halos 53% overall as teams are pretty close in most other areas.

[LT Profits]

Heaney doesnt have the best pitching stats against Seager, Haniger, Segura, or Cruz...

Also I put no stock in head-to-head stats, I am a "full body of work" kind of guy.

[Rich Boy]

Trying to get over that 20 unit mark hey, gl

[cjpenn3]

Lt, what do you get for the Red Sox/Nats game?

[Blackballer]

3 MLB Plays Tuesday

Mets +120 (Heritage)
Mets / Blue Jays OVER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Angels +102 (Heritage)

You see the ball flying tonight in Toronto? Mets are so hard to trust, Wheeler vs Estrada looks almost like a like coin flip but Mets can be prone to gamble away leads when they have them during the middle stage of a game.
Blues Jays ML odds dropped already from -140 to -119. Bautista making his comeback to Toronto, maybe he will homer tonight?

[Blackballer]

Also I put no stock in head-to-head stats, I am a "full body of work" kind of guy.

What do you mean with '' full body of work'' here? don't get it

[LT Profits]

Lt, what do you get for the Red Sox/Nats game?

Sorry, been off the grid for few hours. Had Washington 52% (-108).

[LT Profits]

What do you mean with '' full body of work'' here? don't get it

By full body if work, I mean overall numbers. Model is based on overall performance, it dies not care if a bad pitcher has good numbers vs. a certain team or if a good pitcher has bad numbers vs. certain teams. I ignore head-to-head because either A) the sampling is too small (usually the case) or B if the sampling is bigger, it probably goes back too many years to be meaningful.

[cjpenn3]

Sorry, been off the grid for few hours. Had Washington 52% (-108).

No problem. Appreciate you always following up. I enjoy the thread quite a bit. On the Angels with you as well. Bol.

[johnnyvegas13]

U see what ur mets did in the 7th : p

[2daBank]

Streaks mean nothing to me. Mets and Angels both have nice pitching edges tonight, my overall numbers:

Toronto 51% (-104)
Angels 53% (-113)

Agree about the streaks for sure but I don’t rate heany much better than Leblanc and imo the slight edge he may have is offset by fact Seattle as a team hits lefties at a much better clip than halo’s who sporting a collective ops under .700 vs southpaws, then there Seattle’s pen advantage, I actually have mariners chances higher than line suggest. Incredibly rare play on the fav for me in this one. At least one of us cash.

[johnnyvegas13]

And just gave up the shot in th 8th

like clockwork

[MontrealCrw]

I wouldn't bet Mets if my life depended on it, especially in IL game plus on the road.

Hopefully today is the day, you know what I mean, the magic number 20, cheers bro!

[LT Profits]

U see what ur mets did in the 7th : p

Still +18.18 YTD, you have to endure the bumps in the road along the way.

[LT Profits]

Agree about the streaks for sure but I don’t rate heany much better than Leblanc and imo the slight edge he may have is offset by fact Seattle as a team hits lefties at a much better clip than halo’s who sporting a collective ops under .700 vs southpaws, then there Seattle’s pen advantage, I actually have mariners chances higher than line suggest. Incredibly rare play on the fav for me in this one. At least one of us cash.

Single most important pitching component of model is K vs. BB, and GB% is a prime secondary component. Heaney has been significantly better in those areas.