Mr. Crumbs Leans for Thursday 6/25/09

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Mr. Crumbs Leans for Thursday 6/25/09
    For today's set of games I like

    Red Leggins+100
    Braves -105 Lowe is due for a correction
    Rangers-120 HEAVY
    Marlins-110 HEAVY


    It is said that good pitching beats good hitting. Cueto is 4 times better than Cecil. With just a little help from his hitters, the Red Leggins' should get it done, and avoid the sweep. He's that good. And he goes deep into games, which I really like. Cecil on the other hand, has not done anything in his career to warrant being a prohibitive favorite over Cueto in a game. I made this pick against some of my own stats based upon Cueto's form (66 K's with only 25 walks), and the fact that he had a bad outing his last game against the White Sox. A bounce back is in order. Can he handle American League hitting the second go-round? I'm about to find out, because the line movement on this game is for shit. If he looses this game I will be kicking myself for not making him an NL only starter on my team. And there's no vigorish involved in this wager either.


    Derek Lowe is in a bit of f funk lately, but he talent is undeniably there. He sports a mediocre 1.72 WHIP in his last 3 games, but on the year he has a sterling 1.28 WHIP. After a couple of bad starts he is due for a correction. The Braves hold the edge in recent streak offensively in every conceivable category. I already have them a series bet. I want my icing on top too.

    The Rangers have excellent movement for a team with only 45% of bettors on their side. Arizona opened as a small favorite (-106/-102) Then the smart money hit the table and Texas went from being a dog to a -120 favorite, swimming upstream against the current of money. And why not? Feldman is a more consistent pitcher than Garland who is like opening a box of chocolates. I'm gonna follow the steam on this one. The runline even went down from +165 to +140 for the Rangers. This team should be ready to bust out now. And when they do....Ian Kinsler is a fantasy stud and despite his sub standard average numbers, th muthaf*cka is still hitting his dingers and swiping bags for me! Rangers take the D-Backs down. I'm playing it smart and going for the moneyline only, but it looks like the runline is a good option.

    The Marlins crush pitchers who walk a lot of guys. This Hill guy has 28 strikeouts and 23 walks. West is an up and coming pitcher who has a decent 1.30 WHIP over his last 3 games. The Marlins are crushing the ball right now, and the O's are not. It's that simple.

    They picked up 11 hits yesterday against a better pitcher in Berken. With the O's being such an awful road team and losing a bat out of their lineup, things can only get worse as the Marlins go for the series win for Pappa. And since I obviously feel that they will win this series, I am taking them again today. If they beat the O's it won't be by just one run this time. With the Fish being at home in front of 114 fans, they blowout the tired O's and get me my desired second win in the series. The outfielders for the O's won't have to take too many steps tonight. They'll already know it's gone.
  • baa269
    SBR MVP
    • 05-03-09
    • 2351

    #2
    agreed....
    Comment
    • HoulihansTX
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 02-12-09
      • 30566

      #3
      I like the Nats, and Yankees.
      Comment
      • jellobiafra
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-08-09
        • 6291

        #4
        CHC -114
        BOS -120
        MIN -124
        KC +102


        Good luck everybody!
        Comment
        • suicidekings
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-23-09
          • 9962

          #5
          STL@ NYM, STL RL -0.5 (5IP) (+125), 1u
          - I have faith in Carpenter to step up and respond to the Cards worst loss of the season last night. STL is pushing for the series split and trying to hang on to 1st place in the NL Central. I would expect this game to be close until the end, and I feel like the 5 inning bet is the best chance.

          BOS @ WAS, BOS RL -1.5 (+143), 3u
          - Smoltz in his first start back against a team he has dominated in the past. Washington has scored five or more runs only 3 times in their last 20 games. Smoltz pitched fairly well in his rehab starts, and while I would typically be wary of a pitcher coming back from surgery, Smoltz isn't a typical pitcher. He's a guy that can still beat you if he hasn't got his best stuff because he knows how to work the batters better than almost any other active pitcher in the ML.

          NYY @ ATL, Under 8.5 (+104), 1u
          - Lowe has pitched better at home this season (3.27/1.23), while Pettitte has been much better on the road (2.35/1.15).

          KC @ HOU, KC RRL -1.5 (+160), 1u
          - Bannister has been on form recently, whereas Moehler has been lit up in all three of his home starts this year.
          Comment
          • oda11
            SBR MVP
            • 06-05-09
            • 3250

            #6
            Hi CK,

            Will you still be playing Marlins RL?
            Comment
            • peterpan19
              Restricted User
              • 11-02-08
              • 3377

              #7
              one early play today...CHC... they will avoid the sweep and Armando is still horrible...7.11 ERA over his last 3 starts... GO CUBS

              GL guys
              Comment
              • cocknocker
                Restricted User
                • 11-06-08
                • 8001

                #8
                A whopping 88% of bettors are on the Orioles+1.5 -200. I thought it was a misprint, but it's true. That's a whole lot of juice for 2 runs cushion. But it's enough to certainly move the moneyline down a bit. The consensus is very close on the moneyline 54-46% with a majority on Florida. I was abe to book the Marlins with a book at -110 which i feel is the best line possible for this game. The line will slowly start to go back up to handle the rush of the runline plays by the joes on Baltimore+1.5.
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  Originally posted by oda11
                  Hi CK,

                  Will you still be playing Marlins RL?
                  No the line dipped with the heavy action on the O's RL to a point where I could play the game with less risk. Only 12% of bettors are taking the Florida runline tho! Which mans that bettors are either taking the O's runline or else they are leaving the game alone altogether. I still say the runline is a good bet. If it goes to +200 due to all of the action on the O's runline I will probably have to make a play on it in private.
                  Comment
                  • kmarinouofm
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-26-09
                    • 8437

                    #10
                    CK glad to see you are on the fish today... Be nice to see the fish get the sweep today.. they have been playing the AL east tough HOMIE!!
                    Comment
                    • kmarinouofm
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-26-09
                      • 8437

                      #11
                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                      For today's set of games I like

                      Red Leggins+100
                      Braves -105 Lowe is due for a correction
                      Rangers-120 HEAVY
                      Marlins-110 HEAVY





                      The Marlins crush pitchers who walk a lot of guys. This Hill guy has 28 strikeouts and 23 walks. West is an up and coming pitcher who has a decent 1.30 WHIP over his last 3 games. The Marlins are crushing the ball right now, and the O's are not. It's that simple.

                      They picked up 11 hits yesterday against a better pitcher in Berken. With the O's being such an awful road team and losing a bat out of their lineup, things can only get worse as the Marlins go for the series win for Pappa. And since I obviously feel that they will win this series, I am taking them again today. If they beat the O's it won't be by just one run this time. With the Fish being at home in front of 114 fans, they blowout the tired O's and get me my desired second win in the series. The outfielders for the O's won't have to take too many steps tonight. They'll already know it's gone.

                      CK there will only be 112 fans there... me and my homie ain't going today...been a crap start to the day weather wise...
                      Comment
                      • kmarinouofm
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-26-09
                        • 8437

                        #12
                        has anyone ever seen a o/u of 6.5??? thats what i have for the mets cardinals game today..

                        i mean the cardinals can probably put 7 up alone.

                        the cardinals team total is 3.5 , now santana has faired well against the cardinals in the past.. but i mean lately?? Who knows what you are going to get.. and if they get to the bullpen early? this team total is toast..

                        screw it i am taking the birds...
                        Carpenter is 2-0 with a 0.40 ERA in three afternoon starts.
                        Comment
                        • kmarinouofm
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 8437

                          #13
                          LOL wow smoltz getting crumbz against the nationals??? u kidding me? better pitcher, now with better bats.. pitching against a team he has dominated career wise??

                          this line has already jumped to -120 on my book.. which in my mind at least says my book figured out that +100 was a stupid a s s line.... I think this might be a big play for me as well as the Marlins
                          Comment
                          • The_Kid
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 02-09-08
                            • 5049

                            #14
                            Originally posted by peterpan19
                            one early play today...CHC... they will avoid the sweep and Armando is still horrible...7.11 ERA over his last 3 starts... GO CUBS

                            GL guys
                            That's my early play today too. Cubs have been hitting, just not with RISP. That should change today. GL, peter and to the rest of the mafia!

                            Originally posted by kmarinouofm
                            has anyone ever seen a o/u of 6.5??? thats what i have for the mets cardinals game today..

                            i mean the cardinals can probably put 7 up alone.

                            the cardinals team total is 3.5 , now santana has faired well against the cardinals in the past.. but i mean lately?? Who knows what you are going to get.. and if they get to the bullpen early? this team total is toast..

                            screw it i am taking the birds...
                            Carpenter is 2-0 with a 0.40 ERA in three afternoon starts.
                            It was at 7 last night and everyone probably pounded the UNDER. Go figure with these two pitchers on the mound. For the FF innings, it seems like they're begging you to take the OVER 3.5 at + money. Just my $0.02.

                            I thought Santana at + money last start was too good to pass up. I think I'm laying off this one. I'd trust the better pitcher and the better offense at this point but again, I'll stay away. GL, kmarinouofm.
                            Comment
                            • ragiche
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-09-08
                              • 3110

                              #15
                              PLAYS for me, Early games.

                              Redbirds RL (2x) My pick.

                              Cubbies RL (2x) Tailing PETER.

                              Brewcrew ML (2x) My pick.

                              Evening games.

                              Redleggins ML (2x) Tailing CK.

                              Rangers PK (5x) Tailing CK.

                              Marlins RL (5x) Tailing CK.

                              Wahoos -1.5 +100 (2x) My pick.

                              GL today guys .
                              Comment
                              • peterpan19
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-02-08
                                • 3377

                                #16
                                Originally posted by The_Kid
                                That's my early play today too. Cubs have been hitting, just not with RISP. That should change today. GL, peter and to the rest of the mafia!
                                better start today
                                Comment
                                • The_Kid
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-09-08
                                  • 5049

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by peterpan19
                                  better start today
                                  The start was short-lived. Ted Lilly is imploding now.
                                  Comment
                                  • MrMonkey
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-09-08
                                    • 2278

                                    #18
                                    Fla. -114
                                    Tex. -105
                                    WNBA under 177.5 -110

                                    Off to work, good luck to all!
                                    Comment
                                    • G's pks
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-01-09
                                      • 22251

                                      #19
                                      Guys...take a look at streaks not just a few days stats...The Cubs are in a losing streak...while Detroit a winning streak...
                                      Comment
                                      • cocknocker
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-06-08
                                        • 8001

                                        #20
                                        The Tigers are just cruising along...
                                        Comment
                                        • djpremier36
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-11-08
                                          • 3479

                                          #21
                                          Here's my card:

                                          CIN 1st 5

                                          ATL 1st 5

                                          FLA

                                          BOS



                                          GL all!
                                          Comment
                                          • cs11787
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-26-08
                                            • 1088

                                            #22
                                            Alright guys I seem to have been a little confused. Im very very new to baseball so bare with me here. When you said "Red Legs" I thought that meant Boston "Red Sox" but just found out "Red Legs" refers to Cinci. So what do you guys call the Boston Redsox?
                                            Comment
                                            • Panekkkk
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-12-09
                                              • 2430

                                              #23
                                              CK, where do you see 85% betters on BAL +1.5, I see 86% on FLA -1.5 at vegasinsider?
                                              Comment
                                              • Panekkkk
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-12-09
                                                • 2430

                                                #24
                                                No Adum Dunn for the Nats tonight. Making BOS look even better Dunn has been one of the few producers for the Nats over their last 10 games or so. That is a huge loss.
                                                Comment
                                                • Trixie
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 03-30-09
                                                  • 199

                                                  #25
                                                  Nats
                                                  Braves

                                                  That's my card tonight, guys. BOL!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cocknocker
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 8001

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Panekkkk
                                                    CK, where do you see 85% betters on BAL +1.5, I see 86% on FLA -1.5 at vegasinsider?
                                                    Take into account the time of my post
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Ineed$$
                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                      • 12-07-08
                                                      • 71

                                                      #27
                                                      Michael Jackson [*]
                                                      Comment
                                                      • showtime2000
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-09-08
                                                        • 1054

                                                        #28
                                                        Booked,

                                                        Florida
                                                        Atlanta
                                                        Cincinnati



                                                        GLA
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #29
                                                          copied from yesterdays thread**

                                                          Thur 6/25-

                                                          (2x) cards -120 - carpenter has a 3.05/.87 in his last 3, while santana a 8.31/1.50

                                                          (3x) cubs -130 (A3)

                                                          (3x) yankees +100 - pettitte has a 2.35/1.14 on the road and a 3.72/1.30 career vs the braves in which the yankees have won 10 of those 11 games. granted these are not the same braves, but pettitte seems to get up for this organization. he is also coming off of a very strong game in florida and may be ready to streak for a month. lowe has a 7.47/1.72 in his last 3.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                            For today's set of games I like

                                                            Red Leggins+100
                                                            Braves -105 Lowe is due for a correction
                                                            Rangers-120 HEAVY
                                                            Marlins-110 HEAVY


                                                            It is said that good pitching beats good hitting. Cueto is 4 times better than Cecil. With just a little help from his hitters, the Red Leggins' should get it done, and avoid the sweep. He's that good. And he goes deep into games, which I really like. Cecil on the other hand, has not done anything in his career to warrant being a prohibitive favorite over Cueto in a game. I made this pick against some of my own stats based upon Cueto's form (66 K's with only 25 walks), and the fact that he had a bad outing his last game against the White Sox. A bounce back is in order. Can he handle American League hitting the second go-round? I'm about to find out, because the line movement on this game is for shit. If he looses this game I will be kicking myself for not making him an NL only starter on my team. And there's no vigorish involved in this wager either.


                                                            Derek Lowe is in a bit of f funk lately, but he talent is undeniably there. He sports a mediocre 1.72 WHIP in his last 3 games, but on the year he has a sterling 1.28 WHIP. After a couple of bad starts he is due for a correction. The Braves hold the edge in recent streak offensively in every conceivable category. I already have them a series bet. I want my icing on top too.

                                                            The Rangers have excellent movement for a team with only 45% of bettors on their side. Arizona opened as a small favorite (-106/-102) Then the smart money hit the table and Texas went from being a dog to a -120 favorite, swimming upstream against the current of money. And why not? Feldman is a more consistent pitcher than Garland who is like opening a box of chocolates. I'm gonna follow the steam on this one. The runline even went down from +165 to +140 for the Rangers. This team should be ready to bust out now. And when they do....Ian Kinsler is a fantasy stud and despite his sub standard average numbers, th muthaf*cka is still hitting his dingers and swiping bags for me! Rangers take the D-Backs down. I'm playing it smart and going for the moneyline only, but it looks like the runline is a good option.

                                                            The Marlins crush pitchers who walk a lot of guys. This Hill guy has 28 strikeouts and 23 walks. West is an up and coming pitcher who has a decent 1.30 WHIP over his last 3 games. The Marlins are crushing the ball right now, and the O's are not. It's that simple.

                                                            They picked up 11 hits yesterday against a better pitcher in Berken. With the O's being such an awful road team and losing a bat out of their lineup, things can only get worse as the Marlins go for the series win for Pappa. And since I obviously feel that they will win this series, I am taking them again today. If they beat the O's it won't be by just one run this time. With the Fish being at home in front of 114 fans, they blowout the tired O's and get me my desired second win in the series. The outfielders for the O's won't have to take too many steps tonight. They'll already know it's gone.
                                                            i like your writeups much better - you have a good/interesting writing style. screw all them stats. thats your behind the scenes work.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Dexter
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 12-24-08
                                                              • 25829

                                                              #31
                                                              man, i see the cubs blew a 3-0 lead....that sucks. the one time i pulled up scores at work it was 1-0 cards with pujols up bases juiced, and cubs up 3-0. whatever...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • maddogmadden86
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 11-08-08
                                                                • 898

                                                                #32
                                                                im surprised no one was on the indians today with lee pitching and sizemore and their SS wow drawring ablank as i write this hitting the ball good didnt wager on this game and its a 0-0 game but just thinking out loud
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ragiche
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 12-09-08
                                                                  • 3110

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by ragiche
                                                                  PLAYS for me, Early games.

                                                                  Redbirds RL (2x) My pick.

                                                                  Cubbies RL (2x) Tailing PETER.

                                                                  Brewcrew ML (2x) My pick.

                                                                  Evening games.

                                                                  Redleggins ML (2x) Tailing CK.

                                                                  Rangers PK (5x) Tailing CK.

                                                                  Marlins RL (5x) Tailing CK.

                                                                  Wahoos -1.5 +100 (2x) My pick.

                                                                  GL today guys .


                                                                  Hopefully my last 4 plays cash in.To compensate my earlier games.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • socrates01
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 05-17-09
                                                                    • 301

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Nice call on your HEAVY Florida pick so far....Marlins 5 Baltimore 0
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • mojomaker11
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 01-05-09
                                                                      • 286

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Went BIG on rangers moneyline, runline, and over. Lets cash this!!
                                                                      Comment
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