BaseRuns sabermetrics system - Capper on Covers.com forum doing very well

[Panekkkk]

covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100438856&pa ge=32&t=0

Anyone familiar with the Base Runs sabermetrics formula developed by David Smyth? Apparently it is the most accurate formula at estimating runs per game.

Anyway, I came across the above forum on covers. This guy is using Base Runs and posting his picks and is generating fairly good success. He's aiming at hitting around 70% and I think he's pretty close.

Unfortunately, like most statisticians, he is piss-poor at communicating and I'm having trouble dissecting exactly how he's using the system.

One poster suggesting also using the Runs Created system:
covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100438856&pa ge=10

Base Runs wikipedia page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs

More info from Tom Tango:

http://www.tangotiger.net

Any statisticians wanna weigh in on this and how to properly use it?

[Justin7]

covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100438856&pa ge=32&t=0

Anyone familiar with the Base Runs sabermetrics formula developed by David Smyth? Apparently it is the most accurate formula at estimating runs per game.

Anyway, I came across the above forum on covers. This guy is using Base Runs and posting his picks and is generating fairly good success. He's aiming at hitting around 70% and I think he's pretty close.

Unfortunately, like most statisticians, he is piss-poor at communicating and I'm having trouble dissecting exactly how he's using the system.

One poster suggesting also using the Runs Created system:
covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100438856&pa ge=10

Base Runs wikipedia page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_Runs

More info from Tom Tango:

http://www.tangotiger.net

Any statisticians wanna weigh in on this and how to properly use it?

This is what I use. It's deadly in certain circumstances. If you have good player projections, MLB is a candy store.

[tacomax]

Nicky said that doesn't work.

[pavyracer]

Does this system take into account beating the closing number?

[Justin7]

Does this system take into account beating the closing number?

I beat the closing number about 75% when playing overnights.

[flyingillini]

Justin7, please tell me about your experience doing the espn show? I watched it the other day and saw you on it.. I was impressed, the one about Dr. Bob. You looked very sharp on espn, sir.

[Justin7]

Justin7, please tell me about your experience doing the espn show? I watched it the other day and saw you on it.. I was impressed, the one about Dr. Bob. You looked very sharp on espn, sir.

Bah, don't get me started on ESPN.

[Panekkkk]

This is what I use. It's deadly in certain circumstances. If you have good player projections, MLB is a candy store.

Maybe you can help explain how to use it? From what I gathered, Base Runs is a team projection, yet it seems that the guy in the covers forum suggests you run it for each player of a lineup vs. the opponents starting pitcher using stats vs. that pitcher? Is that right?

The formula isn't really that hard to understand, I'm just not sure what data to use. Do you use the BaseRuns pitcher formula as well?

[Justin7]

Maybe you can help explain how to use it? From what I gathered, Base Runs is a team projection, yet it seems that the guy in the covers forum suggests you run it for each player of a lineup vs. the opponents starting pitcher using stats vs. that pitcher? Is that right?

The formula isn't really that hard to understand, I'm just not sure what data to use. Do you use the BaseRuns pitcher formula as well?

You use the starting batting lineup of each team. If you're a stud, you can throw in pinch hitters. For defense, you use a combination of starting pitcher, and your expected bullpen relief.

I have a vid on this topic that goes more into depth. I don't want to explain a whole lot more on it though, because this is a good earner for me.

[Minkus]

it seems to be that way panekkkk.....does this guy do this math for all the games and post his plays?

[Panekkkk]

it seems to be that way panekkkk.....does this guy do this math for all the games and post his plays?

Only just started looking at the thread but yes it seems that he does his math and posts his plays prior all at ounce. He apparently has developed some "cut" formulas as well to limit his picks down so that he hits about 70%.