3 games
The inevitable baseball burnout has begun for yours truly. When there are a million games during the season, and I seem to have action on about a quarter of them, it’s bound to happen this time of year. I’d like to say it is a Michael Jordan type burnout, where the constant winning became a bore to me, but alas, that is not the case.
I need a break from the stats, the streaks, and the trends once in awhile. Last week I toyed around with my Bet-Like-a-Square project. It involved a steady diet of Yankees, Red Sox, Phils and Cubs – either as large moneyline favorites, or on the run line. The project ended with a dismal 1-6 record. The lesson there is that when you bet like a square, you will probably lose like a square.
Interleague play always piques my interest. You are able to enjoy some matchups that you don’t see every day. For now, it’s a serviceable engine to get me closer to baseball’s stretch run, or football, or the next MMA event. Without putting a ton of thought into it (burnout, remember?) there are three games that I like tomorrow. Let’s take a quick look at them, shall we?
New York Yankees -137
Atlanta Braves +127
It looks like my square betting will continue for at least one more game, as I’m backing the Yankees as a road favorite. Joba Chamberlain (3-2, 3.89) and the slightly fading Yankees will be facing the Braves and their lackluster offense.
Kenshin Kawakami (4-6, 4.42) will be starting/getting knocked around by Yankee hitters. He’s actually been fantastic vs. the AL East this year. In three starts against Boston, Baltimore and Toronto he is 2-0, 1.90 ERA, 15 K’s in 19 IP. New York’s high powered hitting (2nd in MLB run scoring, 1st home runs) should change Kawakami’s AL East fortunes. That’s the plan, at least.
Philadelphia Phillies +158
Tampa Bay Rays -168
The Phils seem to have the Rays number. Last year’s World Series wasn’t even close, and last night they throttled them 10-1. Never fear, Matt Garza (4-5, 3.83) is here. You know those starting pitchers that always seem to bury you? We all have plenty of them. Well Garza is the opposite – he is my rabbit’s foot.
When I am in need of a big win, I can almost always count on Garza. Will he be able to shut down the NL East leading, defending world champion Phillies? Will the highest scoring team in baseball be able to inflate Joe Blanton’s 5.28 ERA? I hope so. After last night’s throttling, they need some serious vindication.
Garza gets it done
Baltimore Orioles +128
Florida Marlins -138
How many runs will be scored in this game? Ten? Twenty? Both starting pitchers own ERA’s off the Richter Scale. Baltimore’s Jason Berken (1-3, 6.84) will face Florida’s Ricky Nolasco (3-6, 7.15). The o/u for the game is only nine. Something seems strange about that.
I was going to play the Marlins, but over the course of the last 15 minutes, I’ve talked myself into the over. Perhaps I’ll play both. I’m loosey goosey these days and not putting too much thought into anything. The number crunching will come back soon enough, but everyone needs a break.
So the Yankees, the Rays as a big home favorite and an Over with two high ERA pitchers starting. It looks like the square project is continuing. Crap.
Budget after Bet-Like-a-Square project
