Mr. Crumbs Leans for Saturday 6/20/09

ragiche · 06-20-09, 04:57 PM

The tigers are looking good right now.

MrSink · 06-20-09, 05:21 PM

Baltimore +1.5
my 2nd pick today
gl all

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by pronk

CK, what is wrong with with Mets- Rays lines? Just checked my book (betus) and lines are:

Mets -120 ml and -1½ +190 rl

Tampa Ev ml and -1½ +160 arl

Wow, that 's a strange line if I ever saw one, pronk, maybe it was a misprint or error. It almost makes it so you have to take Tampa's RRL...even though they are only up by 1 run right now... but you would think that the favored team would have less juice for the -1.5. Awesome...

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by ragiche

The tigers are looking good right now.

Yeah, but hold on now....the bullpens are about to get involved. Hold onto that money tight with all of your might. The bullpens this year are the worst I have EVER seen, and last year was pretty bad

ragiche · 06-20-09, 05:42 PM

don't tell me that this will be another reliever heartburn in the making.

JumpoffJoeBeezy · 06-20-09, 05:44 PM

Is the Mets game gonna get called?

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 05:44 PM

I cannot speak more on the deterioration of relief pitching. Where's Bruce Sutter when you need him? All of you young bucks have no clue about the inventor of the split finger fastball

ragiche · 06-20-09, 05:47 PM

whew,out of the jam.

ragiche · 06-20-09, 05:49 PM

You're right Ck.If these relievers haven't blown the leads you must be perfect on your heavy plays right now.

Panekkkk · 06-20-09, 05:49 PM

OAK / SDG

Public 68% on SD yet line has gone from +110 to +115 making SD more attractive. Rookie Walter Silva on the mound ... in 2 starts he hasn't made it out of the 5th with 10 hits in 9.2 innings, 7 BB's and only 3 K's. Anderson for Oakland is no ace but OAK bats came to life last night and it's hard to imagine Silva keeping them at bay. What's a bit surprising is that the total is only 8 considering who's on the mound.

More interesting facts:

For a -126 OAK favourite, the -1.5 RL is only +133 ... and with a total set to 8 that's almost unheard of!
Seattle at home is -123 and the -1.5 RL is +168.
SF with Cain is -140 fav, total at 8, and the -1.5 RL is +153
77% of bettors on the over yet the line hasn't moved.
Looks like the bookies are thinking 4-2 OAK.

OAL ML -126

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I cannot speak more on the deterioration of relief pitching. Where's Bruce Sutter when you need him? All of you young bucks have no clue about the inventor of the split finger fastball

45 saves in '84 bro!

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 05:51 PM

Added:
NY Yankees -120
NY Yankees -1.5 +145

GL

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 06:00 PM

Hooray for Dexter! The Red Birdies are gettin' it done!

GoldenPig · 06-20-09, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by GoldenPig

Just starting the day off after a long night. Took a look at today's cards and only like a couple of games. Starting with 1pm PT games I only like the Rays. Santana at -125 is just plain deceptive as he consistently has been -150 or > especially at home. Santana is probably gonna get knocked around again.

Rays +105.

Hope the game gets called due to the rain or Rays hold onto the slim lead.

Yankees -120 for PT afternoon games

Florida is not hitting that well and Josh Johnson is due for a loss.

Panekkkk · 06-20-09, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

Added:
NY Yankees -120
NY Yankees -1.5 +145

GL

No A-rod tonight

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

OAK / SDG

Public 68% on SD yet line has gone from +110 to +115 making SD more attractive. Rookie Walter Silva on the mound ... in 2 starts he hasn't made it out of the 5th with 10 hits in 9.2 innings, 7 BB's and only 3 K's. Anderson for Oakland is no ace but OAK bats came to life last night and it's hard to imagine Silva keeping them at bay. What's a bit surprising is that the total is only 8 considering who's on the mound.

More interesting facts:

For a -126 OAK favourite, the -1.5 RL is only +133 ... and with a total set to 8 that's almost unheard of!
Seattle at home is -123 and the -1.5 RL is +168.
SF with Cain is -140 fav, total at 8, and the -1.5 RL is +153
77% of bettors on the over yet the line hasn't moved.
Looks like the bookies are thinking 4-2 OAK.

OAL ML -126

I like the way you look at things, bro!

jellobiafra · 06-20-09, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I cannot speak more on the deterioration of relief pitching. Where's Bruce Sutter when you need him? All of you young bucks have no clue about the inventor of the split finger fastball

I think Roger Craig is actually credited with discovering the splitter. Sutter threw a forkball if I recall.... little different motion. The forkball has more of a tumbling action... a lot of the Japanese pitchers still throw it. It's not quite as fast as the splitter either... which has more of a late diving action.

Yeah, I think it was Roger Craig that taught it to Mike Scott of the Astros. At least that's the way I remember it being told...

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by Panekkkk

No A-rod tonight

Its ok...he's slumping...

Panekkkk · 06-20-09, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by Jimbo42

I like the way you look at things, bro!

And you're right about A-Rod. He's a bum anyways lol.

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 06:14 PM

Detroit cashes!

Moneyline and runline!

ragiche · 06-20-09, 06:15 PM

DET cashes,Thanks CK,for those wonderful insights that you gave to me and shared to others

. And congrats to all det backers and also for jimbo(also played the tigers right?).

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by ragiche

You're right Ck.If these relievers haven't blown the leads you must be perfect on your heavy plays right now.

Yeah because I'm capping the game right, and in most cases I'll have reverse working in my favor also, and the bullpen still has blown leads unlike anything I have ever seen before. I've even had two and three run leads disappear in the last two frames. I had a talk with BigMoney and Chet and a couple of other guys and they told me that the bullpens have always been this bad, but I was just a little more lucky in the past, so I didn't see it as being as bad as it is or has ben as BigMoney pointed out to me. The only thing that I was told to add to my equations (by Chet and BigMoney) is to actually bring back the thing that I replaced slugging% with and that's hitting average.

Slugging % has to do with run production. Hitting average has to do with the motherf*ckers that are on base when those power numbers come into play as well as the other thing that I'm not compensating for and that's the manufactured runs the other side is getting. That is in the event that the oher side had a higher hitting average than mine but lower slugging % numbers.

I used the hitting average before this year instead of slugging %. Now I want both on my side when making a bet, which off course means that there will be less bets made per day as a result. I mean trying to find a bet where the starting and bullpen WHIP, as well as slugging% for the last 3 games and also looking for an inconsistency with the power ranking and the appropriate movement all wrapped up in one is going to be tough to find. After doing the formula with the inclusion of the hitting average as well I only came up with only three plays today and those are Baltimore, Colorado and St. Louis. Let's see what happens

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

I think Roger Craig is actually credited with discovering the splitter. Sutter threw a forkball if I recall.... little different motion. The forkball has more of a tumbling action... a lot of the Japanese pitchers still throw it. It's not quite as fast as the splitter either... which has more of a late diving action.

Yeah, I think it was Roger Craig that taught it to Mike Scott of the Astros. At least that's the way I remember it being told...

You're correct, it WAS the forkball. I was just watching MLB Classic ON Demand and I saw the hook that he was throwing and it must have been a terror to try to hit. They also spoke about Blyleven's curve too and Jack Morris stamina and velocity. It's good shit.

It's funny that you spoke of Mike Scott. His name came up today in a PM conversation that I had with someone. We touched on JR Richards his untimely death and some of the old Stros. Talk about irony. I see that the Tigers cashed ragiche's ticket with the usual implosion from the bullpen. What in the hell is the problem this year?

Is the pitching that watered down now?

jellobiafra · 06-20-09, 06:30 PM

JR Richards is just outside my frame of reference. I know of him of course, but never saw him pitch that I remember. But I do remember Mike Scott well....and when he busted on the scene with that splitter nobody could figure him out for about 3 years running. He and Nolan Ryan at the top of the rotation was just unfair for a couple seasons. It's crazy they didn't win more than they did. I guess the closest they came was '86 when the Mets beat them in that classic NLCS. I still remember the 16 inning game like it was yesterday. Great baseball back then. So much better than what we have now, imo. Especially the pitching.

Dexter · 06-20-09, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Here's what I like for today. I am heading out to a park to meet with the guy for a jumpe for my daughter as today is her birthday! But at any rate...I have my picks but I won't be able to make the write up right away..

O's+135 Bergesen is the real thing
Braves+1.5 -135 (Lowe is due for a correction)
Marlins-110 They have all the advantages, let's see if they can use them well.

Now I know that we have a guy here this morning who came up with a beautiful thread using my name and saying this and that. We all know what happens to guys who run their mouth. They get called onto the floor. I PM'd the gentleman wth a proposition that will get both he and I out of our comfort zones. I asked that this guy and another guy have a two week go with me on the following sports: WNBA and MLB. We'll see how it works out. I criticized his lack of play in any sport other baseball, and he criticized me about my recnt slump in baseball, although I am making a killing with my MLB system which of course he has no idea about.

G's Picks and Shortstop, you are being called out to participate in two simultaneous sports challenges.

I need a little something to get it going, and you two motherf*ckers made it happen.

We need a score keeper, and we need for these two competitiors to agree to particiapte in both. The winner will have a combined winning% for both sports combined over a two week span. Everything counts as only one unit. The unit risk amount is counted against your tally if it is a negative money wager

I love it when unknowns step up and get their cough syrup. You two ain't in my league

funny - i was just thinking how nice and quiet its been around here with no trolls etc...

some clowns are so weak in the real world, that they feel strong talking shit like pussies when saved from their pc. its funny, and sad at the same time.

Dexter · 06-20-09, 06:57 PM

added play-

rockies -1.5/+120 (3x)

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 07:26 PM

Sh*t CK you right about Bergesen!

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 07:59 PM

B'more ...13 hits and only 3 runs??? OMG... they are dominating, but in a scary position...

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 08:06 PM

I was just thinking the same thing Jimbo when i saw Philly score with 2 doubles. Could it be? I can't understand what's going on with my teams lately.....

Karayilan9 · 06-20-09, 08:18 PM

BOL CK, all I know is at the end of the season Ck will be laughing all the way to the bank and the haters will be secretly tailing him.

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 08:19 PM

And just like that the lead is gone for Baltimore, messing up my perfect handicapping as the WHIP, the ERA, the hitting, the slugging% and the bullpen are all in my favor for this game, but the reliever comes in and gives up a 3 run dong to Howard in the 7th....unbelieveable the tough losses I have had from the bullpens lately. It's like I have stepped outside of myself and I am looking in on a horror movie. I can't recll a season where I have had this many of these types of losses. they always come late with relievers giving it up...

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

And just like that the lead is gone for Baltimore, messing up my perfect handicapping as the WHIP, the ERA, the hitting, the slugging% and the bullpen are all in my favor for this game, but the reliever comes in and gives up a 3 run dong to Howard in the 7th....unbelieveable the tough losses I have had from the bullpens lately. It's like I have stepped outside of myself and I am looking in on a horror movie. I can't recll a season where I have had this many of these types of losses. they always come late with relievers giving it up...

OMG bro.. that is so messed up!... I don't even have the Orioles, but I was impressed with your call on Bergesen... That really is a f**ked up deal. No reason B'more should not be up 8-3 here...

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 08:29 PM

Ain't no tellin' what the Marlins are gonna do with my money tonight. They are only ahead by 1 run n the 8th which is bad as far as my luck lately. For all that I know the Yanks may take the lead now with the red carpet treatment

cocknocker · 06-20-09, 08:32 PM

I am predicting that the Marlins cannot hold the lead

Jimbo42 · 06-20-09, 08:37 PM

Florida AND B'more would be winners first 5...