Vegas Dave's Baseball Picks 06/16/09
0-6 on my last 6 official plays, 0-3 on my unofficial leans on the day off inbetween.... that makes me 0 for my last 9.
Some will argue I'm "due". Some will enjoy the fade. Either way, here's what I like today:
Pick 1: New York Mets +119 over Baltimore Orioles
Mike Pelfrey continues to get no respect whatsoever, and getting completely hammered by Pittsburgh on June 4th to the tune of 8 earned runs pretty much locked up that lack of respect for at least a few more starts. Before that blowup, Pelfrey had given up two runs or less in four straight and three runs or less in seven straight. Over that seven game span with Pelfrey on the mound, the Mets were 6-1.
In his last out, Pelfrey bounced back nicely, giving up two earned runs in six innings. He is way too consistantly good of a pitcher to be sitting at +119 against Jeremy Guthrie and the Baltimore Orioles who have both been wildly inconsistant this year.
Pick 2: Seattle Mariners -137 over San Diego Padres
Apparently not every Padres pitcher pitches well at Petco; in seven starts this season, Correia has a 4.97 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers.
Felix Hernandez meanwhile has been lights out this season, giving up one earned run or less in four straight starts and seven of his last ten. Yes, you read that right; ONE earned run or less. It's true that when he's off, he's off; but in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league against one of the league's quietest offenses, call me crazy for thinking today is going to be one of those "on days".
Pick 3: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians Under 9 (+105)
After scoring a combined 26 runs yesterday, I'm hoping these two teams have gotten all of that offense out of their systems. Gallardo holds a 2.88 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP on the season and has given up two runs or less in four straight starts, and in fact has only given up more than two runs three times all season (12 starts). Gallardo is a reliable source for outs.
Jeremy Sowers is where the gambling comes in, considering how poorly he pitched the last two years and in his first two starts this season. But since then, in four straight starts, Sowers has not surrendered more than two earned runs, and has also given up only one homerun over that span.
Could easily see a nice quiet first five or six innings in this one.
Good luck today!
Some will argue I'm "due". Some will enjoy the fade. Either way, here's what I like today:
Pick 1: New York Mets +119 over Baltimore Orioles
Mike Pelfrey continues to get no respect whatsoever, and getting completely hammered by Pittsburgh on June 4th to the tune of 8 earned runs pretty much locked up that lack of respect for at least a few more starts. Before that blowup, Pelfrey had given up two runs or less in four straight and three runs or less in seven straight. Over that seven game span with Pelfrey on the mound, the Mets were 6-1.
In his last out, Pelfrey bounced back nicely, giving up two earned runs in six innings. He is way too consistantly good of a pitcher to be sitting at +119 against Jeremy Guthrie and the Baltimore Orioles who have both been wildly inconsistant this year.
Pick 2: Seattle Mariners -137 over San Diego Padres
Apparently not every Padres pitcher pitches well at Petco; in seven starts this season, Correia has a 4.97 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Not exactly awe-inspiring numbers.
Felix Hernandez meanwhile has been lights out this season, giving up one earned run or less in four straight starts and seven of his last ten. Yes, you read that right; ONE earned run or less. It's true that when he's off, he's off; but in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league against one of the league's quietest offenses, call me crazy for thinking today is going to be one of those "on days".
Pick 3: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians Under 9 (+105)
After scoring a combined 26 runs yesterday, I'm hoping these two teams have gotten all of that offense out of their systems. Gallardo holds a 2.88 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP on the season and has given up two runs or less in four straight starts, and in fact has only given up more than two runs three times all season (12 starts). Gallardo is a reliable source for outs.
Jeremy Sowers is where the gambling comes in, considering how poorly he pitched the last two years and in his first two starts this season. But since then, in four straight starts, Sowers has not surrendered more than two earned runs, and has also given up only one homerun over that span.
Could easily see a nice quiet first five or six innings in this one.
Good luck today!