Reds, Braves lock horns in Cincinnati in key NL Series
Reds, Braves lock horns in Cincinnati in key NL Series
Jair Jurrjens leads the Atlanta Braves into Cincinnati against Aaron Harang and the Reds for the only non-interleague series to open this week's schedule.
Both teams are floating just at or below the .500 level, the Reds right on it at 31-31 (+0.95 units) and the Braves just below par at 30-32 (-8.75). Despite mediocre records, both Cincinnati and Atlanta remain close in their division races and will meet for a three-game series in the Queen City with a lot on the line.
The Braves are 6½ back of the Phillies and fourth in the NL East while the Reds are in the middle of a very close NL Central race that finds all six teams within 4½-games of each other. Milwaukee's 14-12 win in Cleveland last night pushed Cincinnati three games back in third tied with the Cubs.
Their Win-Loss records aren't the only stats the two teams are similar. The Braves have outscored the Reds by just a run through 62 games each, 263-262. Cincinnati is 14-14 at home while Atlanta is 15-15 away from Turner Field. This isn't a make-or-break series for either by any means. Still, there's just four weeks left until the All-Star Game, and putting on a run from now to then could be huge for either team.
The offenses rank at the top of the bottom-third of the NL in runs per game and several other offensive categories. That lends itself to thinking this would be a pitching dominated series given both staffs. But with Edinson Volquez out for the Reds and Derek Lowe not scheduled in this series, that might not be the case.
Jair Jurrjens (7-6, 2.85) will get the call for Atlanta in Game 1 tonight against Aaron Harang (6-7, 3.74) on the mound for Cincinnati. Javier Vazquez follows for the Braves on Wednesday against Micah Owings, with a rookie battle in the series finale as Tommy Hanson and Matt Malone each make their third career starts opposite one another.
For Tuesday, the advantage is definitely with the Braves behind Jurrjens with Atlanta opening at -125 and falling to closer to -120 at a few shops overnight. The Braves are 4-2 when Jurrjens starts on the road, the righthander sporting a 2.26 ERA in 39.2 away IP this year. This will only be his second start against the Reds, the other in Cincinnati last May when free passes got Jurrjens in trouble for the loss. This is not a patient Reds line so there's no reason for him to nibble in this one.
Harang has run hot-&-cold all season, mixing some really good starts in with some really bad ones. He's 4-2 at home 2.84 ERA in six starts, 38 IP. The righthander hasn’t faced the Braves since July 2007, working into the eighth of a 5-4 win in Atlanta. Overall the Reds are 2-3 when he starts against Atlanta, 1-2 in games at Cincinnati.
Basically have two teams dead even statistically, both coming into a series cold with Atlanta losing four of their last five and Cincy on a 4-game skid, neither team scoring (ATL 3.2 rpg last five; CIN 2.4 rpg last 10), two decent pitchers with a small road favorite and a total of 8.
Oh, toss in there's a 60% chance of rain in the form of scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday in Porkopolis meaning who the hell knows if Jurrjens and Harang might have their starts interrupted putting you into both bullpens, which are also fairly even. Winds are forecast out of the SE at 5-10 (in from right-center) with muggy mid-to-upper 70s first pitch temperature.
I like Jurrjens at what seems a fair price against the on again, off again Harang and will also take the Under in case Harang is on again for this one. If you're looking for a good reason to fade me, seven of the last 10 in this series at Great American have seen at least 10 runs scored and only two have remained below eight on the total. On average the last three years, the Braves and Reds put up 11.6 runs per game in Cincinnati.
Jair Jurrjens leads the Atlanta Braves into Cincinnati against Aaron Harang and the Reds for the only non-interleague series to open this week's schedule.
Both teams are floating just at or below the .500 level, the Reds right on it at 31-31 (+0.95 units) and the Braves just below par at 30-32 (-8.75). Despite mediocre records, both Cincinnati and Atlanta remain close in their division races and will meet for a three-game series in the Queen City with a lot on the line.
The Braves are 6½ back of the Phillies and fourth in the NL East while the Reds are in the middle of a very close NL Central race that finds all six teams within 4½-games of each other. Milwaukee's 14-12 win in Cleveland last night pushed Cincinnati three games back in third tied with the Cubs.
Their Win-Loss records aren't the only stats the two teams are similar. The Braves have outscored the Reds by just a run through 62 games each, 263-262. Cincinnati is 14-14 at home while Atlanta is 15-15 away from Turner Field. This isn't a make-or-break series for either by any means. Still, there's just four weeks left until the All-Star Game, and putting on a run from now to then could be huge for either team.
The offenses rank at the top of the bottom-third of the NL in runs per game and several other offensive categories. That lends itself to thinking this would be a pitching dominated series given both staffs. But with Edinson Volquez out for the Reds and Derek Lowe not scheduled in this series, that might not be the case.
Jair Jurrjens (7-6, 2.85) will get the call for Atlanta in Game 1 tonight against Aaron Harang (6-7, 3.74) on the mound for Cincinnati. Javier Vazquez follows for the Braves on Wednesday against Micah Owings, with a rookie battle in the series finale as Tommy Hanson and Matt Malone each make their third career starts opposite one another.
For Tuesday, the advantage is definitely with the Braves behind Jurrjens with Atlanta opening at -125 and falling to closer to -120 at a few shops overnight. The Braves are 4-2 when Jurrjens starts on the road, the righthander sporting a 2.26 ERA in 39.2 away IP this year. This will only be his second start against the Reds, the other in Cincinnati last May when free passes got Jurrjens in trouble for the loss. This is not a patient Reds line so there's no reason for him to nibble in this one.
Harang has run hot-&-cold all season, mixing some really good starts in with some really bad ones. He's 4-2 at home 2.84 ERA in six starts, 38 IP. The righthander hasn’t faced the Braves since July 2007, working into the eighth of a 5-4 win in Atlanta. Overall the Reds are 2-3 when he starts against Atlanta, 1-2 in games at Cincinnati.
Basically have two teams dead even statistically, both coming into a series cold with Atlanta losing four of their last five and Cincy on a 4-game skid, neither team scoring (ATL 3.2 rpg last five; CIN 2.4 rpg last 10), two decent pitchers with a small road favorite and a total of 8.
Oh, toss in there's a 60% chance of rain in the form of scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday in Porkopolis meaning who the hell knows if Jurrjens and Harang might have their starts interrupted putting you into both bullpens, which are also fairly even. Winds are forecast out of the SE at 5-10 (in from right-center) with muggy mid-to-upper 70s first pitch temperature.
I like Jurrjens at what seems a fair price against the on again, off again Harang and will also take the Under in case Harang is on again for this one. If you're looking for a good reason to fade me, seven of the last 10 in this series at Great American have seen at least 10 runs scored and only two have remained below eight on the total. On average the last three years, the Braves and Reds put up 11.6 runs per game in Cincinnati.
