Regul8er's 2009 MLB Picks

[Regul8er]

I've been scoping from a far, but I'm now ready to make some wagers. Hopefully I can turn the tide after a long hiatus.

Milwaukee (+117) - It's not so much I like the Brew Crew, but how in the world can the Indians be -127 with Pavano on the hump? I capped this game as a coinflip, and at +117, I definately see some value. After a rough homestand, going on the road is just what the doctor ordered to turn things around. Besides they are playing 500 ball away from Miller.

LA Angels (-118) - Lackey hasn't had his A game this year, for that matter his B or C game. Lackey has been one of the more consistent chuckers over the past 5 years, and I expect him to turn things in the right direction against the upbeat Giants. He did spin in a gem 2 starts ago, so its still there. The Giants have been playing some inspired ball as of late, but let's be honest, this is a team still lacking offensive punch which gets exposed quite often.

[Regul8er]

Certainly not a pretty win by Milwaukee, but Ive been on the other side before.
C'mon Angels of Anaheim, give me a perfect day.

[Regul8er]

After a solid 2-0 start yesterday, I'm going to test my luck with 2 NL Central clubs.

Cincinnati (+115) - I really don't understand why the public loves the Braves in this spot. Maybe its because Jurrjens sub 3.00 ERA? Mind you, he hasn't been quite as impressive away from Turner field, boasting an ERA close to 4.50. Harang has returned to form this year and faired very well against the Braves in his last few starts.

St. Louis (+104) - What a great interleague matchup. Verlander vs Wainwright. I love taking the Cardinals at home as a dog, especially when playing the American League. Tony Larussa knows how to manage an NL game as good as anybody and will surely have the upperhand against a power minded Detroit team. St.Louis wins a tight defensive battle 3-2, while manufacturing a few runs by way of a few steals and a few sacrafice bunts.

[Regul8er]

Another great night for me last night, bringing my overall record up to 4-0 (spreadsheet updated).
Two more underdogs on tonights card.

Milwaukee (+121) - I saw this line at +110 earlier, and figured the public would get on the Brewers. But no, the line now stands at +121 on Rebatewager. Getting out of Milwaukee has worked wonders the last two nights, as they have put up 21 runs, with tonnes of extra base hits. Cleveland's bullpen has been taxed and Huff has had trouble throwing 5 innings. Not to mention, Milwaukee is 15-9 vs lefties this year. Jeff Suppan is the model of consistency. He has only given up more then 3 earned runs in 1 of his last 11 starts. You take his first two starts away and his ERA is slightly above 3.00. I can smell a sweep here.

Tampa Bay (+110) - I figure anytime you have a team with the league's longest winning streak, playing a sub 500 team, why not? The Rays have been crushing the ball as of late, and playing some very inspiring ball when it looked they would never get out of the gate. Ianetta isn't blessed with the strongest throwing arm, matched with Cook's inability to shut down the running game, I expect the Rays to run early and often. Sure David Price has had his struggles, especially with control, but there isn't a Rockie that has an AB against Price yet. I like the Rays to extend their 6 game losing streak in Colorado.

[Regul8er]

Milwaukee's bully was bad last night, but thank goodness Cleveland's was worse. Got a split yesterday after Milwaukee blew a 4 run lead in the 9th. I feel fortunate.

Today only one on my card.

Minnesota (-163) - I saw this line at -153, and though the public might see Duke's numbers and bring the line down. That didn't happen and I feel like a donkey, haha! But anyways, I don't mind laying juice in this spot. Minnesota is a better hitting team, they have more power, more speed, more discipline, better bullpen, and have a HUGE advantage playing in the Metrodome (where they are 22-13). Blackburn has been a streak stopper all year and I expect the same here. Duke has turned his career around early this year, but I don't see Minnesota losing a home series to the Buccos. POUND IT.

[Regul8er]

Thank You Nick Blackburn, couldn't have asked for a better performance yesterday.

Again, only one game on the card that stands out.

LA Dodgers (-110) - I think this a pretty good price. Billingsley has been CY Young material this year and whats even more impressive is how well he's throw away from home. He has started 6 away games this year averaging 7 innings and never giving up more then 2 earned runs in any one start. It's not like he's pitched against scrubs in pitcher friendly parks either (Philly, Cubs, Houston, Texas). Saunders has seen his ERA balloon a full point over his last 5 starts. Saunders seems to be the model of inconsistency, spinning a gem one day and getting rocked the next. Not to mention, the Dodgers have been hammering southpaws, going 15-6 this year and hitting nearly .300 as a team. The Angels are hot, but a little beaten up, and I expect that 3 or 4 runs from the Dodgers should be enough.

[Regul8er]

Tough loss last night, 4-1 Dodgers lead with Billingsley on hump, oh well.

Today were going with Toronto (-115) - Line is too low, too much value not to take the Jays. They have been baseball's biggest surprise, and should rebound today. I figure the matchup of rookie lefties is a washout, with the Jays having a far more superior and efficient offense. I like the Jays to stick it to the lowly Nats today.