Thinking about this system come baseball season

**bigboydan** · 12-13-06, 09:39 PM

I do like your new approach in betting bases this year bud.

I like your dogs only approach, but 2 bets a day is a little short. I feel 3 to 5 games is about right.

**imgv94** · 12-13-06, 09:44 PM

I like 2.. Only need one to win to break profit..

**bigboydan** · 12-13-06, 09:48 PM

depends on how big the dog your taking is though bro. If it's only a +110 dog, it would come back at even.

The only reason I mentioned 3 to 5 plays max would there always is a lot of value with dogs early in the season to turn a very high profit margin from doing that.

**imgv94** · 12-13-06, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

depends on how big the dog

...

**Illusion** · 12-13-06, 09:57 PM

I like the new approach here imgv, but agree with dan that 3-5 plays a night would bring a greater profit. Just remember that this strategy is usually only good until the all-star break. After that dogs do not cash as frequently.

**Stumpage** · 12-13-06, 11:00 PM

A few years ago I took this very same approach, essentially to see what would happen...A few weeks in, I was up substantially and was wondering why I hadn't done this my whole life. I continued to profit through May and early June, and then the wheels fell off completely. In fact, suffice to say that the wheels were vaporized. June destroyed me, and I tucked tail and quit at the All-star break. Guess I should have had more kahoonas and rode it out, but the carnage of those final 6 weeks before the ASG was too much...Anyway, simply a point of comparison and I hope you do much better than myself. Hell, I'll probably give it another shot as well...

**moses millsap** · 12-13-06, 11:29 PM

Groundbreaking. Thanks.

**Tchocky** · 12-14-06, 11:42 AM

I like betting on underdogs. Your winning percentage can be much lower than betting on favorites and you can still come out ahead. The trick is to stay disciplined and follow through on what you say your going to do.

**MrX** · 12-14-06, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

and hope one wins..

I really think you're on to something with this part.

**tacomax** · 12-14-06, 02:22 PM

If you hope two win then you could double your return.

**imgv94** · 12-14-06, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by MrX

I really think you're on to something with this part.

I imagine your being sarcastic with this comment.

Nonetheless I am still very new with baseball betting and it's basically a crapshoot to me. So hope is all I have..

With the non sense of urgency there is in baseball,early in the season Dogs are definitely the way to go.

**MrX** · 12-14-06, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

I imagine your being sarcastic with this comment.

Nonetheless I am still very new with baseball betting and it's basically a crapshoot to me. So hope is all I have..

With the non sense of urgency there is in baseball,early in the season Dogs are definitely the way to go.

Yeah, I was being sarcastic, sorry about that.

Seriously, though, I rarely look in the non-baseball handicapping sections, so I may be wrong about this, but I seem to remember looking at a b-ball writeup of yours that referenced some reasonably scientific thinking about the matchup. I also think there was reference to a formula you had developed to analyze the game. I may be way off about that, but my point is I think you look at your other sports in a more in-depth or outside-the-box way than your average fan, which of course is essential to having even a little success at handicapping.

I saw no evidence of that when you were talking baseball last season. You seemed to be picking games on some vague notions that really were no different than anyone else with a passing knowledge of baseball would notice. That will get you nowhere.

If you're not going to devote some serious time and effort to really understanding the game in a way superior to the betting public, then yes, limiting yourself to 2 underdogs a day will help.

Limiting yourself to zero a day will help even more.

But if you do make the effort to become a winning baseball handicapper, it would be foolishness to limit yourself to 2 good bets a day... Or to limit yourself to underdogs for that matter. Doing well in this business is challenging enough without passing up opportunities.

**imgv94** · 12-14-06, 05:31 PM

Your right Mr.X. I'm probably better off staying away.

**austintx05** · 12-14-06, 09:08 PM

1. Do you know baseball very well?
2. MLB is a dog sport, so you are on the right track.
3. I typically look for 3-5 best bets every day. I understand the idea of limiting yourself to 2 bets per day, but you can go 0-2 and be down, but might have a big dog save your day. I think you just have to play what you feel has a good chance of hitting. It is my own personal experience that baseball is by far the sport you have to grind out the most.

Good Luck buddy.

**flyingillini** · 12-17-06, 04:23 AM

ive been thinking about this a lot lately and cannot wait til the season starts! betting dogs early is a good come up and then riding a hot team at the right time! good luck to all of us!

**Illusion** · 12-17-06, 04:48 AM

My final word, imgv you asked our advice last year and you were still pro Yankees despite our advice against them. I hope you choose a dog system that's right for you. Either way, fvck New York, Boston, St Louis, and any other front runner. Learn to love teams like Kansa City, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Those teams if played in the right spot will make you a ton. Good luck brother.

**imgv94** · 12-17-06, 05:35 AM

Your right Illusion I was stubborn and fell for the glitz and glamour of the Yanks..

Thanks for the help and I will defintely take your advice next season..

**Hulu** · 12-17-06, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by Stumpage

A few years ago I took this very same approach, essentially to see what would happen...A few weeks in, I was up substantially and was wondering why I hadn't done this my whole life. I continued to profit through May and early June, and then the wheels fell off completely. In fact, suffice to say that the wheels were vaporized. June destroyed me, and I tucked tail and quit at the All-star break. Guess I should have had more kahoonas and rode it out, but the carnage of those final 6 weeks before the ASG was too much...Anyway, simply a point of comparison and I hope you do much better than myself. Hell, I'll probably give it another shot as well...

This is almost identical to what happened to me last season...way up early and then gave it all back and then some in the 2nd half of the season. I am going to try the same strategy this year but reduce my unit size each month so I don't give back any profits made in the opening couple of months.

**Razz** · 12-17-06, 05:17 PM

Just bet on KC and Milwaukee every day. Both teams will win at least 15 more games than they did last season.

**BigD** · 12-17-06, 11:49 PM

I like it

**bigboydan** · 12-18-06, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by Razz

Just bet on KC and Milwaukee every day. Both teams will win at least 15 more games than they did last season.

I can see the Brewers maybe accomplishing this feat, but not KC bud.

**MickChunky** · 12-18-06, 12:40 PM

Not much of a ML baseball bettor here, but I like to bet totals based on pitching matchups. I tried ML dogs early this season with the NBA and made a good profit, but that has since dried up. ML dogs are awesome in the beginning of the season, I might just try it this year as long as I figure out when to stop.

**rickyg50** · 01-04-07, 02:52 AM

That is one fat dog. What do you feed that thing, rabbits?